Fourth Down Data
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APP

App State

MountaineersBalanced
Sun Belt Conference1-0#28 (+5.91)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

79· BOverall
Offense
74· BRating
83· BPer play
77· BConsistency
85· BBig plays
Defense
73· BRating
86· BPer play
79· BConsistency
Situational
27· DRed-zone O
95· ARed-zone D
37· D3rd down O
41· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.030
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.041
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.276
Defensive EPA/play
-0.471
lower = better
Off Success Rate
61.1%
Def Success Rate
35.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
29.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
0.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.746
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
5.17

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.40
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.12
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.31
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.20
own return game
Return Defense
-0.01
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where App State ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
72th
Opp-adjusted defense
75th
Offensive EPA/play
84th
Defensive EPA/play
87th
Offensive success rate
93th
Explosiveness
86th
Defensive havoc
71th
Points per drive
87th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Texas2023OA +0.085 / +0.111similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, havoc rate3302Notre Dame2020OA +0.039 / +0.035similar: defensive success rate, pass defense, TD drive rate3193Oklahoma2020OA +0.043 / +0.039similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, defensive success rate3154Georgia2022OA +0.185 / +0.203similar: havoc rate, offensive success rate, rushing offense3135Liberty2020OA +0.052 / +0.010similar: offensive success rate, run defense, rushing offense310

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Maine55-3W-21.0W53.5O
2@ East Carolina------
3vs Charlotte------
4@ NC State------
6vs Old Dominion------
7@ Coastal Carolina------
8vs James Madison------
9@ Georgia Southern------
10vs Georgia State------
11@ Marshall------
12vs UL Monroe------
13@ South Alabama------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS1-0
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off89thRush Off83thRed Zone Off27th3rd Down Off37thPass Def79thRush Def52thRed Zone Def96th3rd Down Def42th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.27890th-0.19667th
Red Zone-0.20927th-1.08696th
Third Down-0.06337th+0.02042th
No Garbage Time+0.27685th-0.45091th
First Half+0.27682th-0.45087th
Second Half+0.28182th-0.03947th
Early Downs+0.20379th-0.04545th
Passing Downs+0.54989th-0.33479th
Standard Downs+0.20183th-0.11152th
Goal to Go-0.52610th-0th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 45.8%Rush 54.2%
Havoc/Game
15.0
Havoc Rate
24.6%
TO Margin
+1.0
Explosive/G
13.0
Yards/Game
647.0
Pts/Drive
5.17
3rd Down%
28.6%
3&Out%
0.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — App State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatApp StateOpponents
Scoring
Points553
Points / Game55.03.0
First Downs
Total3412
Rushing151
Passing1811
Penalty10
Rushing
Attempts3928
Yards29952
Yards / Carry7.71.9
Yards / Game299.052.0
Touchdowns40
Passing
Attempts3332
Completions2918
Completion %87.9%56.3%
Yards348198
Yards / Attempt10.56.2
Touchdowns30
Interceptions02
Passer Rating206.4695.72
Total Offense
Plays7260
Yards647250
Yards / Play9.04.2
Yards / Game647.0250.0
Punt Returns
Returns30
Yards210
Average7.0—
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns01
Yards019
Average—19.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts05
Yards0214
Average—42.8
Interception Returns
Returns20
Yards150
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles10
Lost10
Penalties
Penalties44
Yards3030
Yards / Game30.030.0
Time of Possession
Per Game33:0926:51
Third Downs
Attempts715
Conversions26
Conversion %28.6%40.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts32
Conversions31
Conversion %100.0%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips81
Scores (TD + FG)71
Score %87.5%100.0%
Touchdowns50
TD %62.5%0.0%
Field Goals
Attempts21
Made21
Pct100.0%100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts70
Made70
Pct100.0%—
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →