Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
The Recap
Week 1, 2026 — the week in review
Week 1 · 91 games · 13 one-score finishes · 4 upsets · 8 weather-affected
What was rare
This week’s games that stand out in nine seasons of college football — every dimension where a game ranked among the rarest we track. Full context lives on the How Rare page.
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#5Tulsa beat Oklahoma State 24-10 in 101F -- the hottest game of the 2026 season.#1663 combined points after halftime in Ole Miss-Louisville -- the most combined second-half points of the 2026 season.#20Michigan beat Western Michigan despite losing the turnover battle by 3 -- the worst turnover margin overcome by a winner of the 2026 season.#20SMU beat Florida State despite losing the turnover battle by 3 -- tied for the worst turnover margin overcome by a winner of the 2026 season.#70Michigan State beat Toledo while losing the EPA battle by 0.22 per play -- the widest per-play efficiency deficit overcome by a winner of the 2026 season.#71Duke beat Tulane 17-3 with just 20 combined points -- the lowest-scoring game of the 2026 season.#77Just 6 combined first-half points in USF-FIU -- the lowest-scoring first half of the 2026 season.#78USF beat FIU despite being outgained by 173 yards -- the largest yardage deficit overcome by a winner of the 2026 season.#122San Jose State-Eastern Michigan changed leads 5 times -- the most lead changes in a game of the 2026 season.#122Memphis-Arkansas State changed leads 5 times -- tied for the most lead changes in a game of the 2026 season.#155Wake Forest beat Akron 38-16 in 94F -- the hottest game of the 2026 season.#181Miami (FL) averaged +0.53 EPA per play against Stanford -- the best single-game offensive EPA of the 2026 season.#291Florida 66, Florida Atlantic 21: 87 combined points -- the highest-scoring game of the 2026 season.#50443 combined points after halftime in Nebraska-Ohio -- tied for the most combined second-half points of the 2026 season.#539Illinois beat UAB despite being outgained by 81 yards -- the largest yardage deficit overcome by a winner of the 2026 season.#593UNLV beat Hawaii 21-6 in 20.6 mph wind -- the windiest game of the 2026 season.#627Illinois averaged +0.39 EPA per play against UAB -- the best single-game offensive EPA of the 2026 season.#67439 explosive plays between Memphis and Arkansas State -- tied for the most explosive plays in a game of the 2026 season.#67439 explosive plays between Nebraska and Ohio -- tied for the most explosive plays in a game of the 2026 season.#684Boise State led Oregon by 10 and lost 34-27 -- the largest blown lead of the 2026 season.#684Oregon came back from 10 down to beat Boise State 34-27 -- the largest comeback of the 2026 season.#997Just 17 combined first-half points in Colorado-Georgia Tech -- tied for the lowest-scoring first half of the 2026 season.#997Just 17 combined first-half points in San Jose State-Eastern Michigan -- tied for the lowest-scoring first half of the 2026 season.#2702Nevada beat Western Kentucky 49-14 in 59F -- the coldest game of the 2026 season.•Buffalo-Albany changed leads 3 times -- the most lead changes in a game of the 2026 season.•Utah 66, Idaho 14: 80 combined points -- the highest-scoring game of the 2026 season.•Louisiana Tech averaged +0.74 EPA per play against Northwestern State -- the best single-game offensive EPA of the 2026 season.•Louisiana Tech beat Northwestern State by 74, 80-6 -- the largest margin of victory of the 2026 season.•Georgia succeeded on 75% of its plays against Tennessee State -- the best single-game success rate of the 2026 season.
Best single-game performances — offense
Non-garbage-time EPA per play.
Louisiana Tech
vs Northwestern State
+0.745
EPA/play
Louisiana Tech averaged +0.745 EPA per play against Northwestern State on a 70.0% success rate.
Share →Miami
at Stanford
+0.531
EPA/play
Miami averaged +0.531 EPA per play against Stanford on a 65.9% success rate.
Share →Georgia
vs Tennessee State
+0.519
EPA/play
Georgia averaged +0.519 EPA per play against Tennessee State on a 75.0% success rate.
Share →Best single-game performances — defense
Non-garbage-time EPA per play. Defensive EPA is credited to the defense — higher is better.
BYU
vs Utah Tech
+0.928
EPA/play
BYU's defense produced +0.928 EPA per play against Utah Tech (76.5% success rate).
Share →Kansas State
vs Nicholls State
+0.927
EPA/play
Kansas State's defense produced +0.927 EPA per play against Nicholls State (86.7% success rate).
Share →Iowa
vs Northern Illinois
+0.785
EPA/play
Iowa's defense produced +0.785 EPA per play against Northern Illinois (88.2% success rate).
Share →Every game, and what it looked like before
Final scores for the week, each with the two past games whose team profiles most resembled this matchup — the same engine that powers The Archive. Descriptive resemblance, nothing more.
Closest comps: 2017 Cincinnati 21-38 Marshall · 2018 Colorado State 13-45 Colorado
Closest comps: 2024 Georgia Southern 28-14 James Madison · 2025 Mississippi State 38-45 Texas
Closest comps: 2020 Auburn 30-17 Tennessee · 2023 New Mexico State 13-7 Middle Tennessee
Closest comps: 2018 Oklahoma 51-14 Kansas State · 2018 Baylor 37-34 Kansas State
Closest comps: 2019 Stanford 6-21 Oregon · 2017 Maryland 3-66 Penn State
Closest comps: 2019 Rice 7-20 Marshall · 2025 North Carolina 20-15 Stanford
Closest comps: 2026 Michigan 52-17 UTEP · 2025 Oklahoma 44-0 Kent State
Closest comps: 2019 Colorado State 24-31 Boise State · 2024 Virginia 20-24 Louisville
Closest comps: 2022 Houston 23-16 Louisiana · 2018 Baylor 37-34 Kansas State
Closest comps: 2018 Tulsa 20-29 Arkansas State · 2021 Washington 30-35 Arizona State
Closest comps: 2017 App State 27-6 Georgia Southern · 2026 Iowa 40-0 Northern Illinois
Closest comps: 2022 James Madison 40-13 Texas State · 2020 Georgia 31-24 Mississippi State
Closest comps: 2019 Boston College 31-38 Florida State · 2025 Kennesaw State 24-16 Middle Tennessee
Closest comps: 2017 Penn State 45-14 Indiana · 2023 App State 31-9 Marshall
Closest comps: 2020 Virginia Tech 40-14 Boston College · 2020 SMU 30-27 Memphis
Closest comps: 2019 Wisconsin 38-0 Michigan State · 2019 Michigan 44-10 Michigan State
Closest comps: 2022 North Texas 21-17 Rice · 2021 Oregon State 45-27 Hawai'i
Closest comps: 2021 Buffalo 44-56 Bowling Green · 2017 Syracuse 23-30 Middle Tennessee
Closest comps: 2022 South Alabama 6-10 Troy · 2019 Notre Dame 21-20 Virginia Tech
Closest comps: 2025 Virginia 27-7 Virginia Tech · 2022 Cincinnati 45-24 Indiana
Closest comps: 2024 Ole Miss 26-14 Mississippi State · 2022 Alabama 63-7 UL Monroe
Closest comps: 2025 Sam Houston 16-56 Florida International · 2022 Florida International 7-52 Florida Atlantic
Closest comps: 2020 Iowa State 45-0 Kansas State · 2022 Fresno State 55-13 Hawai'i
Closest comps: 2017 TCU 56-36 SMU · 2017 Georgia 53-28 Missouri
Closest comps: 2021 SMU 41-17 South Florida · 2020 Liberty 56-35 Southern Miss
Closest comps: 2019 Missouri 38-7 West Virginia · 2023 Tennessee 59-3 UConn
Closest comps: 2026 Auburn 21-15 Vanderbilt · 2020 Georgia Tech 20-34 Pittsburgh
Closest comps: 2025 Ohio State 42-9 Rutgers · 2023 SMU 45-21 North Texas
Closest comps: 2021 Georgia State 16-45 App State · 2026 UCF 44-30 Georgia State
Closest comps: 2017 Memphis 20-21 Iowa State · 2021 Army 23-10 Miami (OH)
Closest comps: 2025 Buffalo 17-21 Troy · 2021 Bowling Green 19-22 South Alabama
Closest comps: 2023 Oklahoma 59-20 West Virginia · 2022 Memphis 26-10 Tulsa
Closest comps: 2022 Louisiana 49-21 Eastern Michigan · 2018 Western Kentucky 34-37 Old Dominion
Closest comps: 2017 Purdue 38-35 Arizona · 2017 TCU 56-36 SMU
Closest comps: 2021 UCLA 44-10 Hawai'i · 2021 Oregon State 45-27 Hawai'i
Closest comps: 2017 South Florida 33-3 Cincinnati · 2021 Notre Dame 34-6 Navy
Closest comps: 2026 New Mexico State 34-13 Western Kentucky · 2021 Texas State 27-19 UL Monroe
Closest comps: 2021 Penn State 44-13 Ball State · 2020 Northwestern 35-19 Auburn
Closest comps: 2018 Arizona State 31-28 UCLA · 2019 Charlotte 24-13 Marshall
Closest comps: 2024 West Virginia 35-49 Baylor · 2019 Troy 43-50 Arkansas State
Closest comps: 2026 Washington 16-14 Utah State · 2023 Arkansas 31-38 BYU
Closest comps: 2022 Air Force 14-19 Boise State · 2023 Michigan 31-7 Rutgers
Closest comps: 2017 SMU 44-21 Arkansas State · 2017 UL Monroe 50-67 Arkansas State
Against the pre-game line
How the week's results landed relative to the pre-game consensus spread and total. Descriptive only — every FBS game since 2017 is available on the Betting page.
52 of 8461.9%
favorites covered
1
pushes
49 of 8557.6%
overs
13.87points
avg. miss vs. the number
Furthest above the spread
| Favorite | Opponent | Spread | Margin | vs spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSU | Clemson | -10.0 | +41.0 | +31.0 |
| App State | Maine | -21.0 | +52.0 | +31.0 |
| Louisiana Tech | Northwestern State | -44.5 | +74.0 | +29.5 |
| Pittsburgh | Miami (OH) | -16.5 | +45.0 | +28.5 |
| Syracuse | New Hampshire | -35.5 | +63.0 | +27.5 |
Furthest below the spread
| Favorite | Opponent | Spread | Margin | vs spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rutgers | Massachusetts | -29.0 | -16.0 | -45.0 |
| Western Kentucky | Nevada | -1.0 | -35.0 | -36.0 |
| Oklahoma State | Tulsa | -13.5 | -14.0 | -27.5 |
| Michigan | Western Michigan | -27.5 | +1.0 | -26.5 |
| Utah State | Idaho State | -14.0 | -12.0 | -26.0 |