Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
The Recap
Week 0, 2026 — the week in review
Week 0 · 8 games · 2 one-score finishes · 3 upsets · 1 weather-affected
What was rare
This week’s games that stand out in nine seasons of college football — every dimension where a game ranked among the rarest we track. Full context lives on the How Rare page.
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#71USC succeeded on 71% of its plays against San Jose State -- the best single-game success rate of the 2026 season.#116Stanford and Hawaii combined for 34 fourth-quarter points -- the most combined fourth-quarter points of the 2026 season.#224North Carolina beat TCU 15-10 with just 25 combined points -- the lowest-scoring game of the 2026 season.#387Memphis beat UNLV despite losing the turnover battle by 1 -- tied for the worst turnover margin overcome by a winner of the 2026 season.#387North Carolina beat TCU despite losing the turnover battle by 1 -- tied for the worst turnover margin overcome by a winner of the 2026 season.#387USC beat San Jose State despite losing the turnover battle by 1 -- tied for the worst turnover margin overcome by a winner of the 2026 season.#399USC beat San Jose State 42-26 in 87F -- the hottest game of the 2026 season.#497Stanford beat Hawaii 37-27 in 14.8 mph wind -- the windiest game of the 2026 season.#50443 combined points after halftime in Stanford-Hawaii -- the most combined second-half points of the 2026 season.#991Memphis beat UNLV despite being outgained by 42 yards -- the largest yardage deficit overcome by a winner of the 2026 season.#997Just 17 combined first-half points in Virginia-NC State -- the lowest-scoring first half of the 2026 season.#1054Stanford-Hawaii changed leads 2 times -- tied for the most lead changes in a game of the 2026 season.#1054North Carolina-TCU changed leads 2 times -- tied for the most lead changes in a game of the 2026 season.#1064UNLV led Memphis by 7 and lost 27-21 -- tied for the largest blown lead of the 2026 season.#1064Memphis came back from 7 down to beat UNLV 27-21 -- tied for the largest comeback of the 2026 season.#1064TCU led North Carolina by 7 and lost 15-10 -- tied for the largest blown lead of the 2026 season.#1064North Carolina came back from 7 down to beat TCU 15-10 -- tied for the largest comeback of the 2026 season.#126336 explosive plays between Stanford and Hawaii -- the most explosive plays in a game of the 2026 season.#1384USC averaged +0.28 EPA per play against San Jose State -- the best single-game offensive EPA of the 2026 season.#1476USC 42, San Jose State 26: 68 combined points -- the highest-scoring game of the 2026 season.#2501North Carolina beat TCU 15-10 in 61F -- the coldest game of the 2026 season.
Best single-game performances — offense
Non-garbage-time EPA per play.
USC
vs San José State
+0.282
EPA/play
USC averaged +0.282 EPA per play against San José State on a 70.8% success rate.
Share →Florida State
vs New Mexico State
+0.181
EPA/play
Florida State averaged +0.181 EPA per play against New Mexico State on a 47.0% success rate.
Share →Memphis
at UNLV
+0.129
EPA/play
Memphis averaged +0.129 EPA per play against UNLV on a 45.0% success rate.
Share →Best single-game performances — defense
Non-garbage-time EPA per play. Defensive EPA is credited to the defense — higher is better.
North Dakota State
vs Jacksonville State
+0.428
EPA/play
North Dakota State's defense produced +0.428 EPA per play against Jacksonville State (61.9% success rate).
Share →Eastern Michigan
vs Sacramento State
+0.351
EPA/play
Eastern Michigan's defense produced +0.351 EPA per play against Sacramento State (60.3% success rate).
Share →Virginia
vs NC State
+0.318
EPA/play
Virginia's defense produced +0.318 EPA per play against NC State (63.2% success rate).
Share →Every game, and what it looked like before
Final scores for the week, each with the two past games whose team profiles most resembled this matchup — the same engine that powers The Archive. Descriptive resemblance, nothing more.
Closest comps: 2025 North Carolina 20-15 Stanford · 2019 Miami (OH) 20-17 Akron
Closest comps: 2025 Middle Tennessee 31-17 Sam Houston · 2021 UL Monroe 24-27 Arkansas State
Closest comps: 2017 Boise State 41-14 Nevada · 2024 James Madison 63-7 Ball State
Closest comps: 2019 Florida International 48-23 Charlotte · 2019 Temple 30-28 Memphis
Closest comps: 2020 Tulsa 34-30 East Carolina · 2022 Troy 17-14 Texas State
Closest comps: 2019 Charlotte 24-13 Marshall · 2022 Ole Miss 25-42 Texas Tech
Closest comps: 2025 Houston 14-17 TCU · 2019 App State 56-37 Coastal Carolina
Closest comps: 2024 Washington State 14-15 Wyoming · 2017 Colorado State 42-14 San José State
Against the pre-game line
How the week's results landed relative to the pre-game consensus spread and total. Descriptive only — every FBS game since 2017 is available on the Betting page.
4 of 850.0%
favorites covered
0
pushes
2 of 825.0%
overs
13.63points
avg. miss vs. the number
Furthest above the spread
| Favorite | Opponent | Spread | Margin | vs spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia | NC State | -4.0 | +26.0 | +22.0 |
| North Dakota State | Jacksonville State | -6.5 | +26.0 | +19.5 |
| Stanford | Hawai'i | -4.0 | +10.0 | +6.0 |
| Eastern Michigan | Sacramento State | -9.0 | +11.0 | +2.0 |
| UNLV | Memphis | -4.0 | -6.0 | -10.0 |
Furthest below the spread
| Favorite | Opponent | Spread | Margin | vs spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC | San José State | -38.5 | +16.0 | -22.5 |
| Florida State | New Mexico State | -31.5 | +17.0 | -14.5 |
| TCU | North Carolina | -7.5 | -5.0 | -12.5 |
| UNLV | Memphis | -4.0 | -6.0 | -10.0 |
| Eastern Michigan | Sacramento State | -9.0 | +11.0 | +2.0 |