Fourth Down Data
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HAW

Hawai'i

Rainbow WarriorsPass-Heavy
Mountain West Conference0-2
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.078
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.040
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.106
Defensive EPA/play
+0.022
lower = better
Off Success Rate
36.4%
Def Success Rate
44.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.128
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.36

Peer Context

Where Hawai'i ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
7th
Opp-adjusted defense
22th
Offensive EPA/play
24th
Defensive EPA/play
34th
Offensive success rate
9th
Explosiveness
50th
Defensive havoc
20th
Points per drive
22th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Arkansas State2021OA -0.102 / -0.143similar: offensive success rate, pass defense, offensive EPA3792San José State2026OA -0.007 / +0.033similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, havoc rate3773Colorado2025OA -0.044 / -0.049similar: run defense, offensive success rate, turnover rate3674Nebraska2017OA +0.058 / -0.086similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, takeaway rate3655New Mexico State2018OA -0.133 / -0.120similar: rushing offense, havoc rate, offensive success rate363

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0@ Stanford27-37L+4.0L48.5O
1vs UNLV6-21L+3.0L55.5U
2vs New Mexico State------
4@ Wyoming------
5vs San José State------
6@ Arizona State------
7vs New Mexico------
8@ Northern Illinois------
10@ UTEP------
11vs North Dakota State------
12@ Nevada------
13vs Sacramento State------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
0-2
0.0%
O/U Record
1-1
50.0%
Straight Up
0-2
0.0%
Home ATS0-1
Away ATS0-1
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS0-2
Last 5 ATS
LL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Style & Tendencies

Pass 63.6%Rush 36.4%
Havoc/Game
-
Havoc Rate
12.1%
TO Margin
-
Explosive/G
-
Yards/Game
-
Pts/Drive
1.36
3rd Down%
-
3&Out%
44.0%
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →