Fourth Down Data
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HAW

Hawai'i

Rainbow WarriorsPass-Heavy
Mountain West Conference0-2#131 (-11.27)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

5· FOverall
Offense
2· FRating
24· DPer play
9· FConsistency
49· CBig plays
Defense
20· DRating
33· DPer play
38· DConsistency
Situational
24· DRed-zone O
24· DRed-zone D
60· C3rd down O
61· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.078
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.040
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.106
Defensive EPA/play
+0.022
lower = better
Off Success Rate
36.4%
Def Success Rate
44.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.128
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.36

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.38
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.47
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.02
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.14
own return game
Return Defense
+0.22
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Hawai'i ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
7th
Opp-adjusted defense
22th
Offensive EPA/play
24th
Defensive EPA/play
34th
Offensive success rate
9th
Explosiveness
50th
Defensive havoc
20th
Points per drive
22th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Arkansas State2021OA -0.102 / -0.143similar: offensive success rate, pass defense, offensive EPA3792San José State2026OA -0.007 / +0.033similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, havoc rate3773Colorado2025OA -0.044 / -0.049similar: run defense, offensive success rate, turnover rate3674Nebraska2017OA +0.058 / -0.086similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, takeaway rate3655New Mexico State2018OA -0.133 / -0.120similar: rushing offense, havoc rate, offensive success rate363

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0@ Stanford27-37L+4.0L48.5O
1vs UNLV6-21L+3.0L55.5U
2vs New Mexico State------
4@ Wyoming------
5vs San José State------
6@ Arizona State------
7vs New Mexico------
8@ Northern Illinois------
10@ UTEP------
11vs North Dakota State------
12@ Nevada------
13vs Sacramento State------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
0-2
0.0%
O/U Record
1-1
50.0%
Straight Up
0-2
0.0%
Home ATS0-1
Away ATS0-1
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS0-2
Last 5 ATS
LL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off46thRush Off18thRed Zone Off25th3rd Down Off61thPass Def55thRush Def26thRed Zone Def24th3rd Down Def61th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.10625th+0.02233th
Red Zone-0.23825th+0.40324th
Third Down+0.22161th-0.19761th
No Garbage Time-0.10624th+0.02235th
First Half-0.2959th-0.00538th
Second Half+0.03750th+0.06134th
Early Downs-0.3632th+0.20711th
Passing Downs+0.00946th-0.10655th
Standard Downs-0.19818th+0.07126th
Goal to Go-0.23923th+0.51141th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 63.6%Rush 36.4%
Havoc/Game
8.5
Havoc Rate
12.1%
TO Margin
-1.0
Explosive/G
17.5
Yards/Game
309.5
Pts/Drive
1.36
3rd Down%
43.6%
3&Out%
44.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 2 games — Hawai'i vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatHawai'iOpponents
Scoring
Points3358
Points / Game16.529.0
First Downs
Total3939
Rushing1120
Passing2316
Penalty53
Rushing
Attempts5581
Yards164406
Yards / Carry3.05.0
Yards / Game82.0203.0
Touchdowns26
Passing
Attempts9652
Completions4930
Completion %51.0%57.7%
Yards455426
Yards / Attempt4.78.2
Touchdowns21
Interceptions10
Passer Rating95.65132.85
Total Offense
Plays151133
Yards619832
Yards / Play4.16.3
Yards / Game309.5416.0
Punt Returns
Returns35
Yards148
Average4.71.6
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns15
Yards11104
Average11.020.8
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts1412
Yards557531
Average39.844.3
Interception Returns
Returns01
Yards00
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles40
Lost10
Penalties
Penalties1314
Yards90118
Yards / Game45.059.0
Time of Possession
Per Game30:3629:25
Third Downs
Attempts3931
Conversions1714
Conversion %43.6%45.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts44
Conversions31
Conversion %75.0%25.0%
Red Zone
Trips68
Scores (TD + FG)46
Score %66.7%75.0%
Touchdowns36
TD %50.0%75.0%
Field Goals
Attempts31
Made20
Pct66.7%0.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts28
Made18
Pct50.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts20
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →