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WIS
Wisconsin
BadgersRun-HeavyBig Ten Conference4-8#62 (+0.81)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
54· COverall
Offense
19· DRating
0· FPer play
2· FConsistency
3· FBig plays
Defense
82· BRating
73· BPer play
26· DConsistency
Situational
15· DRed-zone O
58· CRed-zone D
4· F3rd down O
68· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.142
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.127
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.258
Defensive EPA/play
-0.083
lower = better
Off Success Rate
40.0%
Def Success Rate
46.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
19.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
19.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.175
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.007
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.12
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.53
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.39
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.79
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.10
own return game
Return Defense
+0.03
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#62
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#125
model 63 higher
Recruiting Rank
#27
recruiting 35 spots higher
21 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Wisconsin ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense6th
Opp-adjusted defense91th
Offensive EPA/play0th
Defensive EPA/play74th
Offensive success rate4th
Explosiveness3th
Defensive havoc39th
Points per drive1th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1New Mexico2021OA -0.227 / +0.012similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, passing offense3842Northwestern2019OA -0.147 / +0.092similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, offensive EPA3693Northwestern2021OA -0.108 / +0.022similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, passing offense3254Nebraska2023OA -0.116 / +0.124similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, run defense3175Kennesaw State2024OA -0.085 / -0.027similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate316
2025 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Miami (OH) | 17-0 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | vs Middle Tennessee | 42-10 | W | -17.5 | W | 43.5 | O |
| 3 | @ Alabama | 14-38 | L | +20.5 | L | 45.5 | O |
| 4 | vs Maryland | 10-27 | L | -10.0 | L | 44.5 | U |
| 6 | @ Michigan | 10-24 | L | +17.5 | W | 43.5 | U |
| 7 | vs Iowa | 0-37 | L | +4.5 | L | 37.5 | U |
| 8 | vs Ohio State | 0-34 | L | +29.5 | L | 35.5 | U |
| 9 | @ Oregon | 7-21 | L | +31.5 | W | 44.5 | U |
| 11 | vs Washington | 13-10 | W | +7.5 | W | 43.5 | U |
| 12 | @ Indiana | 7-31 | L | +29.0 | W | 44 | U |
| 13 | vs Illinois | 27-10 | W | +8.5 | W | 42 | U |
| 14 | @ Minnesota | 7-17 | L | +3.0 | L | 33 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
2-10
16.7%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS5-4
Last 5 ATS
WWWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.217 | 1th | -0.083 | 78th |
| Red Zone | -0.179 | 15th | -0.041 | 59th |
| Third Down | -0.267 | 4th | -0.028 | 69th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.279 | 0th | -0.083 | 75th |
| First Half | -0.296 | 0th | -0.081 | 76th |
| Second Half | -0.133 | 7th | -0.084 | 76th |
| Early Downs | -0.271 | 0th | -0.049 | 63th |
| Passing Downs | -0.134 | 22th | -0.094 | 73th |
| Standard Downs | -0.262 | 0th | -0.077 | 76th |
| Goal to Go | +0.408 | 93th | -0.224 | 79th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 39.1%Rush 60.9%
Havoc/Game
10.7
Havoc Rate
17.2%
TO Margin
-0.9
Explosive/G
9.6
Yards/Game
253.1
Pts/Drive
1.12
3rd Down%
32.3%
3&Out%
26.5%
Team Statistics
2025 season totals across 12 games — Wisconsin vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Wisconsin | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 154 | 259 |
| Points / Game | 12.8 | 21.6 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 169 | 204 |
| Rushing | 83 | 81 |
| Passing | 78 | 115 |
| Penalty | 8 | 8 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 423 | 372 |
| Yards | 1,400 | 1,263 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.3 | 3.4 |
| Yards / Game | 116.7 | 105.3 |
| Touchdowns | 9 | 12 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 272 | 344 |
| Completions | 157 | 240 |
| Completion % | 57.7% | 69.8% |
| Yards | 1,637 | 2,619 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.0 | 7.6 |
| Touchdowns | 9 | 19 |
| Interceptions | 13 | 5 |
| Passer Rating | 109.64 | 149.04 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 695 | 716 |
| Yards | 3,037 | 3,882 |
| Yards / Play | 4.4 | 5.4 |
| Yards / Game | 253.1 | 323.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 26 |
| Yards | 93 | 259 |
| Average | 7.8 | 10.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 21 | 5 |
| Yards | 537 | 63 |
| Average | 25.6 | 12.6 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 65 | 56 |
| Yards | 2,761 | 2,267 |
| Average | 42.5 | 40.5 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 5 | 13 |
| Yards | 17 | 177 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 16 | 6 |
| Lost | 4 | 1 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 43 | 50 |
| Yards | 361 | 425 |
| Yards / Game | 30.1 | 35.4 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:30 | 29:27 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 155 | 149 |
| Conversions | 50 | 57 |
| Conversion % | 32.3% | 38.3% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 25 | 15 |
| Conversions | 16 | 6 |
| Conversion % | 64.0% | 40.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 22 | 39 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 17 | 33 |
| Score % | 77.3% | 84.6% |
| Touchdowns | 13 | 21 |
| TD % | 59.1% | 53.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 11 | 19 |
| Made | 7 | 14 |
| Pct | 63.6% | 73.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 19 | 31 |
| Made | 19 | 31 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 0 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.