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WIS
Wisconsin
BadgersRun-HeavyBig Ten Conference9-4#18 (+7.55)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
86· BOverall
Offense
56· CRating
19· DPer play
62· CConsistency
2· FBig plays
Defense
95· ARating
98· A+Per play
98· A+Consistency
Situational
22· DRed-zone O
56· CRed-zone D
1· F3rd down O
94· A3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.015
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.232
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.093
Defensive EPA/play
-0.245
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.9%
Def Success Rate
38.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
19.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.152
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.062
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.99
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.00
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.33
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.54
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.17
own return game
Return Defense
+0.37
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#18
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 8 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#19
model 1 higher
Recruiting Rank
#23
model 5 spots higher
19 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Wisconsin ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense56th
Opp-adjusted defense99th
Offensive EPA/play19th
Defensive EPA/play99th
Offensive success rate65th
Explosiveness2th
Defensive havoc99th
Points per drive37th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Utah2020OA -0.020 / +0.040similar: run defense, offensive EPA, passing offense3742Wyoming2020OA -0.019 / +0.052similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, defensive success rate3653Utah2018OA +0.005 / +0.129similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, offensive success rate3604Michigan2024OA -0.043 / +0.043similar: defensive success rate, passing offense, offensive EPA3595Clemson2023OA -0.056 / +0.214similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, havoc rate349
2021 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Penn State | 10-16 | L | -5.5 | L | 50 | U |
| 2 | vs Eastern Michigan | 34-7 | W | -24.5 | W | 50.5 | U |
| 4 | vs Notre Dame | 13-41 | L | -2.8 | L | - | - |
| 5 | vs Michigan | 17-38 | L | -2.0 | L | 43.5 | O |
| 6 | @ Illinois | 24-0 | W | -11.0 | W | 42 | U |
| 7 | vs Army | 20-14 | W | -14.0 | L | 39.5 | U |
| 8 | @ Purdue | 30-13 | W | -3.0 | W | 40 | O |
| 9 | vs Iowa | 27-7 | W | -3.5 | W | 36.5 | U |
| 10 | @ Rutgers | 52-3 | W | -12.3 | W | 37.5 | O |
| 11 | vs Northwestern | 35-7 | W | -24.5 | W | 41 | O |
| 12 | vs Nebraska | 35-28 | W | -8.8 | L | 42 | O |
| 13 | @ Minnesota | 13-23 | L | -6.8 | L | 39 | U |
| 18 | @ Arizona State | 20-13 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-6-1
50.0%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS3-5
Away ATS3-1
Favorite ATS6-6
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
WWLLP
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.106 | 15th | -0.248 | 100th |
| Red Zone | -0.155 | 23th | -0.070 | 56th |
| Third Down | -0.490 | 2th | -0.257 | 95th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.081 | 21th | -0.258 | 99th |
| First Half | -0.032 | 36th | -0.370 | 100th |
| Second Half | -0.185 | 5th | -0.131 | 87th |
| Early Downs | +0.039 | 66th | -0.213 | 100th |
| Passing Downs | -0.221 | 7th | -0.285 | 98th |
| Standard Downs | -0.054 | 29th | -0.223 | 99th |
| Goal to Go | -0.202 | 23th | +0.014 | 48th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 34.6%Rush 65.4%
Havoc/Game
14.8
Havoc Rate
25.2%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
11.7
Yards/Game
371.1
Pts/Drive
1.99
3rd Down%
33.9%
3&Out%
25.4%
Team Statistics
2021 season totals across 13 games — Wisconsin vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Wisconsin | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 330 | 210 |
| Points / Game | 25.4 | 16.2 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 261 | 169 |
| Rushing | 137 | 53 |
| Passing | 104 | 98 |
| Penalty | 20 | 18 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 567 | 398 |
| Yards | 2,742 | 793 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.8 | 2.0 |
| Yards / Game | 210.9 | 61.0 |
| Touchdowns | 26 | 10 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 300 | 348 |
| Completions | 177 | 193 |
| Completion % | 59.0% | 55.5% |
| Yards | 2,082 | 2,266 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.9 | 6.5 |
| Touchdowns | 11 | 9 |
| Interceptions | 13 | 16 |
| Passer Rating | 120.73 | 109.50 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 867 | 746 |
| Yards | 4,824 | 3,059 |
| Yards / Play | 5.6 | 4.1 |
| Yards / Game | 371.1 | 235.3 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 20 | 21 |
| Yards | 92 | 163 |
| Average | 4.6 | 7.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 19 | 31 |
| Yards | 377 | 594 |
| Average | 19.8 | 19.2 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 55 | 69 |
| Yards | 2,453 | 3,140 |
| Average | 44.6 | 45.5 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 16 | 13 |
| Yards | 235 | 312 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 3 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 19 | 14 |
| Lost | 10 | 8 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 70 | 60 |
| Yards | 567 | 527 |
| Yards / Game | 43.6 | 40.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 33:29 | 26:16 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 168 | 167 |
| Conversions | 57 | 48 |
| Conversion % | 33.9% | 28.7% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 20 | 27 |
| Conversions | 11 | 11 |
| Conversion % | 55.0% | 40.7% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 52 | 32 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 42 | 24 |
| Score % | 80.8% | 75.0% |
| Touchdowns | 28 | 15 |
| TD % | 53.8% | 46.9% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 16 |
| Made | 17 | 12 |
| Pct | 77.3% | 75.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 40 | 24 |
| Made | 39 | 22 |
| Pct | 97.5% | 91.7% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 1 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.