Fourth Down Data
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WIS

Wisconsin

BadgersRun-Heavy
Big Ten Conference4-3#35 (+3.92)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

73· BOverall
Offense
25· DRating
12· FPer play
45· CConsistency
17· DBig plays
Defense
95· ARating
99· A+Per play
97· A+Consistency
Situational
77· BRed-zone O
55· CRed-zone D
7· F3rd down O
97· A+3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.043
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.060
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.137
Defensive EPA/play
-0.192
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.0%
Def Success Rate
38.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
18.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.055
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.045
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.79

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.23
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.13
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.01
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.21
own return game
Return Defense
+0.31
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#35
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#16
market 19 higher
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Wisconsin ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
10th
Opp-adjusted defense
96th
Offensive EPA/play
13th
Defensive EPA/play
100th
Offensive success rate
65th
Explosiveness
17th
Defensive havoc
54th
Points per drive
22th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Army2020OA -0.016 / +0.057similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, run defense3612Northwestern2017OA -0.036 / +0.113similar: run defense, offensive success rate, takeaway rate3533Clemson2023OA -0.056 / +0.214similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, offensive success rate3494Jacksonville State2023OA -0.052 / +0.090similar: passing offense, run defense, takeaway rate3405Northern Illinois2017OA -0.083 / +0.118similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, passing offense338

2020 Schedule & Results

7 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
8vs Illinois45-7W----
11@ Michigan49-11W-4.0W54.25O
12@ Northwestern7-17L-7.5L44U
14vs Indiana6-14L-14.0L45.5U
15@ Iowa7-28L-2.0L41.5U
16vs Minnesota20-17W-12.5L47.25U
18vs Wake Forest42-28W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-4
42.9%
O/U Record
3-4
42.9%
Straight Up
4-3
57.1%
Home ATS2-2
Away ATS1-2
Favorite ATS3-4
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
LLLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off12thRush Off31thRed Zone Off77th3rd Down Off7thPass Def100thRush Def89thRed Zone Def55th3rd Down Def98th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.09614th-0.190100th
Red Zone+0.13877th-0.03355th
Third Down-0.2937th-0.31898th
No Garbage Time-0.13411th-0.225100th
First Half-0.10720th-0.23999th
Second Half-0.08516th-0.14086th
Early Downs-0.05630th-0.05775th
Passing Downs-0.18512th-0.292100th
Standard Downs-0.05231th-0.12089th
Goal to Go+0.14465th-0.29388th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 40.8%Rush 59.2%
Havoc/Game
11.9
Havoc Rate
19.3%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
13.4
Yards/Game
345.6
Pts/Drive
1.79
3rd Down%
38.0%
3&Out%
22.4%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 7 games — Wisconsin vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatWisconsinOpponents
Scoring
Points176122
Points / Game25.117.4
First Downs
Total137107
Rushing7028
Passing5666
Penalty1113
Rushing
Attempts293201
Yards1,152673
Yards / Carry3.93.3
Yards / Game164.696.1
Touchdowns132
Passing
Attempts202218
Completions124110
Completion %61.4%50.5%
Yards1,2671,426
Yards / Attempt6.36.5
Touchdowns1012
Interceptions78
Passer Rating123.48116.23
Total Offense
Plays495419
Yards2,4192,099
Yards / Play4.95.0
Yards / Game345.6299.9
Punt Returns
Returns128
Yards3539
Average2.94.9
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1314
Yards290290
Average22.320.7
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts3642
Yards1,4841,661
Average41.239.5
Interception Returns
Returns87
Yards21721
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles118
Lost54
Penalties
Penalties3629
Yards296261
Yards / Game42.337.3
Time of Possession
Per Game36:2023:40
Third Downs
Attempts10087
Conversions3825
Conversion %38.0%28.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1211
Conversions52
Conversion %41.7%18.2%
Red Zone
Trips2718
Scores (TD + FG)2413
Score %88.9%72.2%
Touchdowns1910
TD %70.4%55.6%
Field Goals
Attempts87
Made55
Pct62.5%71.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2313
Made2313
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts02
Made02
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →