Fourth Down Data
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ARMY

Army

Black KnightsRun-Heavy
American Conference9-3#36 (+3.77)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

72· BOverall
Offense
41· CRating
32· DPer play
26· DConsistency
9· FBig plays
Defense
92· A-Rating
94· APer play
94· AConsistency
Situational
85· BRed-zone O
94· ARed-zone D
33· D3rd down O
49· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.016
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.057
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.034
Defensive EPA/play
-0.155
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.7%
Def Success Rate
42.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.121
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.155
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.27

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.63
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.05
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.88
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.26
own return game
Return Defense
-0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#36
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#50
model 14 higher
Recruiting Rank
#38
model 2 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Army ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
32th
Opp-adjusted defense
95th
Offensive EPA/play
32th
Defensive EPA/play
95th
Offensive success rate
52th
Explosiveness
9th
Defensive havoc
77th
Points per drive
59th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Wisconsin2022OA -0.016 / +0.093similar: havoc rate, run defense, turnover rate3712Jacksonville State2023OA -0.052 / +0.090similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, turnover rate3653Georgia Southern2020OA +0.003 / +0.038similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, passing offense3654Miami2018OA -0.114 / +0.191similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, run defense3645Wisconsin2020OA -0.043 / +0.060similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, run defense361

2020 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Middle Tennessee42-0W-3.5W55.5U
2vs UL Monroe37-7W-19.0W55.5U
4@ Cincinnati10-24L+13.5L45U
5vs Abilene Christian55-23W----
6vs The Citadel14-9W----
7@ UTSA28-16W-7.3W49.5U
8vs Mercer49-3W----
11@ Tulane12-38L+5.5L47.5O
12vs Georgia Southern28-27W-3.0L40O
15vs Navy15-0W-7.5W36.5U
16vs Air Force10-7W+2.5W38.5U
18vs West Virginia21-24L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-3
66.7%
O/U Record
3-6
33.3%
Straight Up
9-3
75.0%
Home ATS5-1
Away ATS1-2
Favorite ATS4-1
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
LLWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off30thRush Off54thRed Zone Off86th3rd Down Off34thPass Def91thRush Def86thRed Zone Def95th3rd Down Def49th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.00745th-0.12391th
Red Zone+0.21686th-0.31295th
Third Down-0.02134th+0.08149th
No Garbage Time-0.03035th-0.15895th
First Half-0.05428th-0.20296th
Second Half+0.03958th-0.03566th
Early Downs-0.05132th-0.15595th
Passing Downs-0.05130th-0.15791th
Standard Downs+0.01354th-0.10486th
Goal to Go+0.24479th-0.25584th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 9.6%Rush 90.4%
Havoc/Game
11.8
Havoc Rate
21.2%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
11.6
Yards/Game
317.8
Pts/Drive
2.27
3rd Down%
45.2%
3&Out%
21.2%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 12 games — Army vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatArmyOpponents
Scoring
Points321178
Points / Game26.814.8
First Downs
Total233166
Rushing19165
Passing2286
Penalty2015
Rushing
Attempts716365
Yards3,2761,375
Yards / Carry4.63.8
Yards / Game273.0114.6
Touchdowns365
Passing
Attempts76296
Completions35173
Completion %46.1%58.4%
Yards5371,929
Yards / Attempt7.16.5
Touchdowns416
Interceptions614
Passer Rating106.98121.57
Total Offense
Plays792661
Yards3,8133,304
Yards / Play4.85.0
Yards / Game317.8275.3
Punt Returns
Returns1716
Yards15797
Average9.26.1
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1533
Yards299607
Average19.918.4
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4352
Yards1,8202,023
Average42.338.9
Interception Returns
Returns146
Yards17438
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles1815
Lost86
Penalties
Penalties5558
Yards468521
Yards / Game39.043.4
Time of Possession
Per Game34:0825:52
Third Downs
Attempts168146
Conversions7654
Conversion %45.2%37.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3417
Conversions238
Conversion %67.6%47.1%
Red Zone
Trips3931
Scores (TD + FG)3520
Score %89.7%64.5%
Touchdowns2915
TD %74.4%48.4%
Field Goals
Attempts1015
Made77
Pct70.0%46.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4120
Made3817
Pct92.7%85.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts23
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →