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GASO

Georgia Southern

EaglesRun-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference8-5#64 (+0.24)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

50· COverall
Offense
38· DRating
52· CPer play
63· CConsistency
28· DBig plays
Defense
78· BRating
84· BPer play
83· BConsistency
Situational
28· DRed-zone O
90· A-Red-zone D
47· C3rd down O
73· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.003
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.038
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.017
Defensive EPA/play
-0.078
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.7%
Def Success Rate
42.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.095
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.083
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.06

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.34
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.42
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.30
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.13
own return game
Return Defense
-0.34
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#64
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#42
market 22 higher
Recruiting Rank
#38
recruiting 26 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Georgia Southern ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
57th
Opp-adjusted defense
85th
Offensive EPA/play
52th
Defensive EPA/play
84th
Offensive success rate
59th
Explosiveness
28th
Defensive havoc
74th
Points per drive
42th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Jacksonville State2023OA -0.052 / +0.090similar: offensive success rate, defensive success rate, passing offense3722Texas A&M2021OA -0.092 / +0.152similar: defensive success rate, passing offense, rushing offense3683Boise State2022OA -0.051 / +0.066similar: run defense, havoc rate, defensive EPA3674Army2020OA -0.016 / +0.057similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, passing offense3655Wyoming2020OA -0.019 / +0.052similar: turnover rate, havoc rate, defensive success rate364

2020 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
2vs Campbell27-26W----
4@ Louisiana18-20L+11.5W52.25U
5@ UL Monroe35-30W-20.0L49O
7vs Massachusetts41-0W-31.5W63U
8@ Coastal Carolina14-28L+5.5L51.5U
9vs South Alabama24-17W----
10vs Troy20-13W+3.0W55U
11vs Texas State40-38W-10.0L50.75O
12@ Army27-28L+3.0W40O
13@ Georgia State24-30L-1.5L52.5O
14vs Florida Atlantic20-3W-2.5W41.75U
15vs App State26-34L+9.5W45O
17vs Louisiana Tech38-3W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-4
66.7%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS6-1
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS4-3
Underdog ATS4-1
Last 5 ATS
WLWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off20thRush Off72thRed Zone Off28th3rd Down Off48thPass Def84thRush Def79thRed Zone Def91th3rd Down Def74th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.00749th-0.09186th
Red Zone-0.09428th-0.24091th
Third Down+0.04348th-0.04774th
No Garbage Time+0.02054th-0.08384th
First Half+0.01752th-0.14693th
Second Half-0.00345th-0.04069th
Early Downs+0.02662th-0.12386th
Passing Downs-0.09720th-0.11284th
Standard Downs+0.05272th-0.07879th
Goal to Go+0.35184th+0.07546th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 21.6%Rush 78.4%
Havoc/Game
13.5
Havoc Rate
20.7%
TO Margin
+0.7
Explosive/G
13.3
Yards/Game
371.2
Pts/Drive
2.06
3rd Down%
40.5%
3&Out%
21.5%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 13 games — Georgia Southern vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatGeorgia SouthernOpponents
Scoring
Points354270
Points / Game27.220.8
First Downs
Total224227
Rushing16288
Passing49121
Penalty1318
Rushing
Attempts638422
Yards3,4721,458
Yards / Carry5.43.5
Yards / Game267.1112.2
Touchdowns2914
Passing
Attempts176406
Completions97234
Completion %55.1%57.6%
Yards1,3542,776
Yards / Attempt7.76.8
Touchdowns916
Interceptions1118
Passer Rating124.11119.21
Total Offense
Plays814828
Yards4,8264,234
Yards / Play5.95.1
Yards / Game371.2325.7
Punt Returns
Returns2012
Yards211170
Average10.614.2
Touchdowns30
Kickoff Returns
Returns2143
Yards369939
Average17.621.8
Touchdowns02
Punting
Punts5362
Yards2,1672,408
Average40.938.8
Interception Returns
Returns1811
Yards14292
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1815
Lost68
Penalties
Penalties5362
Yards440564
Yards / Game33.843.4
Time of Possession
Per Game33:1926:41
Third Downs
Attempts163178
Conversions6661
Conversion %40.5%34.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1729
Conversions818
Conversion %47.1%62.1%
Red Zone
Trips4644
Scores (TD + FG)4032
Score %87.0%72.7%
Touchdowns2620
TD %56.5%45.5%
Field Goals
Attempts2519
Made1814
Pct72.0%73.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4130
Made4028
Pct97.6%93.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts23
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →