Fourth Down Data
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MIA

Miami

HurricanesBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference7-6#37 (+4.17)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

72· BOverall
Offense
26· DRating
10· FPer play
13· FConsistency
12· FBig plays
Defense
93· ARating
98· A+Per play
94· AConsistency
Situational
88· BRed-zone O
63· CRed-zone D
83· B3rd down O
99· A+3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.114
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.191
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.148
Defensive EPA/play
-0.213
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.5%
Def Success Rate
39.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.065
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.243
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.84

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.45
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.42
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.74
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.28
own return game
Return Defense
-0.16
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#37
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#16
recruiting 21 spots higher
36 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Miami ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
14th
Opp-adjusted defense
98th
Offensive EPA/play
10th
Defensive EPA/play
98th
Offensive success rate
14th
Explosiveness
12th
Defensive havoc
100th
Points per drive
24th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Army2020OA -0.016 / +0.057similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, run defense3642Northern Illinois2017OA -0.083 / +0.118similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, TD drive rate3233Wisconsin2020OA -0.043 / +0.060similar: turnover rate, run defense, defensive EPA3184Wisconsin2022OA -0.016 / +0.093similar: run defense, defensive success rate, passing offense3105Florida Atlantic2020OA -0.038 / +0.056similar: run defense, defensive success rate, defensive EPA307

2018 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ LSU17-33L-2.5L43.5U
2vs Savannah State77-0W-62.0W63.5O
3@ Toledo49-24W-12.0W58O
4vs Florida International31-17W-26.0L58U
5vs North Carolina47-10W-17.5W56O
6vs Florida State28-27W-14.0L48.5O
7@ Virginia13-16L-7.0L46.5U
9@ Boston College14-27L-4.0L49U
10vs Duke12-20L-9.5L51U
11@ Georgia Tech21-27L+1.5L51.5U
12@ Virginia Tech38-14W-6.5W52P
13vs Pittsburgh24-3W-5.5W45.5U
18@ Wisconsin3-35L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
4-7-1
36.4%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS5-6
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
LLLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off23thRush Off8thRed Zone Off89th3rd Down Off84thPass Def100thRush Def97thRed Zone Def64th3rd Down Def100th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.12710th-0.236100th
Red Zone+0.19889th-0.06864th
Third Down+0.24384th-0.500100th
No Garbage Time-0.1568th-0.21998th
First Half-0.13114th-0.20195th
Second Half-0.1238th-0.273100th
Early Downs-0.1715th-0.11590th
Passing Downs-0.07623th-0.314100th
Standard Downs-0.1578th-0.18497th
Goal to Go+0.19075th-0.33690th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.6%Rush 57.4%
Havoc/Game
18.8
Havoc Rate
28.0%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
11.7
Yards/Game
358.8
Pts/Drive
1.84
3rd Down%
40.7%
3&Out%
26.4%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 13 games — Miami vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMiamiOpponents
Scoring
Points374253
Points / Game28.819.5
First Downs
Total222205
Rushing117107
Passing8980
Penalty1618
Rushing
Attempts479526
Yards2,4891,863
Yards / Carry5.23.5
Yards / Game191.5143.3
Touchdowns2515
Passing
Attempts356317
Completions182169
Completion %51.1%53.3%
Yards2,1751,763
Yards / Attempt6.15.6
Touchdowns1911
Interceptions1416
Passer Rating112.19101.39
Total Offense
Plays835843
Yards4,6643,626
Yards / Play5.64.3
Yards / Game358.8278.9
Punt Returns
Returns2222
Yards436221
Average19.810.0
Touchdowns31
Kickoff Returns
Returns2924
Yards673540
Average23.222.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6483
Yards2,4483,406
Average38.341.0
Interception Returns
Returns1614
Yards230292
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles2017
Lost129
Penalties
Penalties7362
Yards602611
Yards / Game46.347.0
Time of Possession
Per Game29:0430:56
Third Downs
Attempts177186
Conversions7247
Conversion %40.7%25.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2314
Conversions106
Conversion %43.5%42.9%
Red Zone
Trips4839
Scores (TD + FG)4132
Score %85.4%82.1%
Touchdowns3219
TD %66.7%48.7%
Field Goals
Attempts1227
Made919
Pct75.0%70.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4928
Made4728
Pct95.9%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts10
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →