Fourth Down Data
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WMU

Western Michigan

BroncosRun-Heavy
Mid-American Conference4-2#52 (+1.66)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

60· COverall
Offense
90· A-Rating
96· APer play
97· A+Consistency
94· ABig plays
Defense
15· DRating
9· FPer play
36· DConsistency
Situational
72· BRed-zone O
21· DRed-zone D
51· C3rd down O
6· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.063
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.039
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.261
Defensive EPA/play
+0.161
lower = better
Off Success Rate
58.2%
Def Success Rate
48.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
29.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.100
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.132
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.36

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.03
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.30
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.57
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.08
own return game
Return Defense
-0.15
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#52
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#18
market 34 higher
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Western Michigan ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
95th
Opp-adjusted defense
12th
Offensive EPA/play
97th
Defensive EPA/play
9th
Offensive success rate
99th
Explosiveness
95th
Defensive havoc
83th
Points per drive
95th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1North Carolina2020OA +0.097 / -0.025similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, passing offense4002Oklahoma2019OA +0.243 / -0.017similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3663Oklahoma2017OA +0.313 / -0.052similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3614Memphis2018OA +0.059 / -0.073similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, turnover rate3555Coastal Carolina2021OA +0.090 / -0.035similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, turnover rate351

2020 Schedule & Results

6 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
10@ Akron58-13W-2.5W59.5O
11vs Toledo41-38W+2.5W--
12@ Central Michigan52-44W----
13vs Northern Illinois30-27W-20.0L64.5U
14vs Eastern Michigan42-53L-13.5L66O
15@ Ball State27-30L-1.0L65.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-3
50.0%
O/U Record
3-2
60.0%
Straight Up
4-2
66.7%
Home ATS1-2
Away ATS2-1
Favorite ATS2-3
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
WWLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off98thRush Off98thRed Zone Off73th3rd Down Off52thPass Def31thRush Def6thRed Zone Def21th3rd Down Def6th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.24898th+0.13910th
Red Zone+0.11673th+0.12921th
Third Down+0.06952th+0.3866th
No Garbage Time+0.26197th+0.1617th
First Half+0.29898th+0.1888th
Second Half+0.19695th+0.09027th
Early Downs+0.251100th+0.03338th
Passing Downs+0.39798th+0.11631th
Standard Downs+0.19298th+0.1526th
Goal to Go+0.14162th+0.21023th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 40.1%Rush 59.9%
Havoc/Game
15.7
Havoc Rate
21.6%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
18.0
Yards/Game
479.7
Pts/Drive
3.36
3rd Down%
43.3%
3&Out%
14.9%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 6 games — Western Michigan vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatWestern MichiganOpponents
Scoring
Points250205
Points / Game41.734.2
First Downs
Total141120
Rushing6248
Passing6660
Penalty1312
Rushing
Attempts235229
Yards1,159944
Yards / Carry4.94.1
Yards / Game193.2157.3
Touchdowns1413
Passing
Attempts157199
Completions100127
Completion %63.7%63.8%
Yards1,7191,454
Yards / Attempt10.97.3
Touchdowns1812
Interceptions22
Passer Rating190.95143.08
Total Offense
Plays392428
Yards2,8782,398
Yards / Play7.35.6
Yards / Game479.7399.7
Punt Returns
Returns106
Yards3430
Average3.45.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2822
Yards536445
Average19.120.2
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts1826
Yards7681,070
Average42.741.2
Interception Returns
Returns22
Yards4215
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles108
Lost41
Penalties
Penalties4745
Yards396351
Yards / Game66.058.5
Time of Possession
Per Game28:1531:43
Third Downs
Attempts6791
Conversions2936
Conversion %43.3%39.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts814
Conversions510
Conversion %62.5%71.4%
Red Zone
Trips2626
Scores (TD + FG)2225
Score %84.6%96.2%
Touchdowns1918
TD %73.1%69.2%
Field Goals
Attempts911
Made510
Pct55.6%90.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3419
Made3117
Pct91.2%89.5%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts06
Made04
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →