Fourth Down Data
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WKU

Western Kentucky

HilltoppersBalanced
Conference USA9-4#76 (-2.54)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

44· COverall
Offense
44· CRating
42· CPer play
57· CConsistency
69· CBig plays
Defense
50· CRating
76· BPer play
84· BConsistency
Situational
47· CRed-zone O
98· A+Red-zone D
52· C3rd down O
87· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.065
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.001
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.015
Defensive EPA/play
-0.086
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.1%
Def Success Rate
42.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.071
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.179
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.15

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.30
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.99
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.62
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.04
own return game
Return Defense
-0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#76
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#61
market 15 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
model 3 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Western Kentucky ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
27th
Opp-adjusted defense
54th
Offensive EPA/play
42th
Defensive EPA/play
76th
Offensive success rate
59th
Explosiveness
70th
Defensive havoc
41th
Points per drive
44th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Maryland2023OA -0.018 / +0.051similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, defensive EPA3462Texas A&M2019OA -0.008 / +0.106similar: defensive EPA, run defense, offensive EPA3393Purdue2022OA +0.107 / -0.006similar: havoc rate, TD drive rate, turnover rate3364Texas A&M2022OA -0.058 / +0.086similar: run defense, takeaway rate, havoc rate3305Purdue2017OA +0.012 / +0.097similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, defensive success rate316

2025 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0vs Sam Houston41-24W-10.0W60.5O
1vs North Alabama55-6W-27.5W60.5O
2@ Toledo21-45L+7.5L57.5O
4vs Nevada31-16W-7.5W54.5U
5@ Missouri State27-22W+4.5W54.5U
6@ Delaware27-24W----
8vs Florida International6-25L+3.0W50O
9@ Louisiana Tech28-27W----
10vs New Mexico State35-16W-13.0W49O
12vs Middle Tennessee42-26W-16.5L59.5O
13@ LSU10-13L+23.5W52U
14@ Jacksonville State34-37L+2.5L75.5U
18@ Southern Miss27-16W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
9-4
69.2%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS5-2
Favorite ATS5-2
Underdog ATS4-2
Last 5 ATS
WLWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off38thRush Off46thRed Zone Off47th3rd Down Off53thPass Def85thRush Def74thRed Zone Def99th3rd Down Def88th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.02142th-0.10287th
Red Zone-0.01647th-0.40199th
Third Down+0.09453th-0.15088th
No Garbage Time-0.01444th-0.09279th
First Half-0.02839th-0.05263th
Second Half-0.01349th-0.15693th
Early Downs+0.02967th-0.00943th
Passing Downs-0.05638th-0.14785th
Standard Downs-0.00246th-0.07474th
Goal to Go-0.14825th-0.42093th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 54.5%Rush 45.5%
Havoc/Game
12.8
Havoc Rate
17.4%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
15.2
Yards/Game
406.7
Pts/Drive
2.15
3rd Down%
45.9%
3&Out%
19.9%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 13 games — Western Kentucky vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatWestern KentuckyOpponents
Scoring
Points384297
Points / Game29.522.8
First Downs
Total278266
Rushing9596
Passing164130
Penalty1940
Rushing
Attempts414466
Yards1,7492,295
Yards / Carry4.24.9
Yards / Game134.5176.5
Touchdowns2314
Passing
Attempts495466
Completions325257
Completion %65.7%55.2%
Yards3,5382,915
Yards / Attempt7.16.3
Touchdowns2112
Interceptions139
Passer Rating134.44112.33
Total Offense
Plays909932
Yards5,2875,210
Yards / Play5.85.6
Yards / Game406.7400.8
Punt Returns
Returns525
Yards9194
Average1.87.8
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2016
Yards378424
Average18.926.5
Touchdowns11
Punting
Punts5762
Yards2,7562,597
Average48.441.9
Interception Returns
Returns913
Yards99250
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1013
Lost85
Penalties
Penalties81100
Yards790873
Yards / Game60.867.2
Time of Possession
Per Game29:3230:25
Third Downs
Attempts183204
Conversions8472
Conversion %45.9%35.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1531
Conversions510
Conversion %33.3%32.3%
Red Zone
Trips5149
Scores (TD + FG)4342
Score %84.3%85.7%
Touchdowns3517
TD %68.6%34.7%
Field Goals
Attempts2237
Made1830
Pct81.8%81.1%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4627
Made4627
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts13
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →