Fourth Down Data
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VAN

Vanderbilt

CommodoresRun-Heavy
Southeastern Conference7-6#42 (+3.13)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

69· COverall
Offense
66· CRating
55· CPer play
37· DConsistency
24· DBig plays
Defense
45· CRating
16· DPer play
29· DConsistency
Situational
86· BRed-zone O
34· DRed-zone D
80· B3rd down O
4· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.014
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.035
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.024
Defensive EPA/play
+0.076
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.6%
Def Success Rate
46.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.052
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.018
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.39

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+2.39
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.19
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.97
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.20
own return game
Return Defense
+0.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#42
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#105
model 63 higher
Recruiting Rank
#53
model 11 spots higher
6 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Vanderbilt ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
65th
Opp-adjusted defense
16th
Offensive EPA/play
55th
Defensive EPA/play
16th
Offensive success rate
32th
Explosiveness
25th
Defensive havoc
60th
Points per drive
62th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Wake Forest2020OA +0.020 / -0.032similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, defensive success rate3452Kentucky2017OA +0.002 / -0.044similar: rushing offense, takeaway rate, offensive success rate3293Virginia Tech2018OA +0.023 / -0.095similar: offensive success rate, defensive success rate, defensive EPA3244Louisville2026OA +0.042 / -0.002similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense3105Arizona State2018OA +0.072 / -0.049similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, turnover rate301

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Virginia Tech34-27W+13.5W48O
2vs Alcorn State55-0W-30.8W48O
3@ Georgia State32-36L-10.5L44O
4@ Missouri27-30L+20.0W53.5O
6vs Alabama40-35W+23.0W54.5O
7@ Kentucky20-13W+13.5W46U
8vs Ball State24-14W-25.5L58.5U
9vs Texas24-27L+18.5W53.5U
10@ Auburn17-7W+6.5W48U
11vs South Carolina7-28L+3.5L46U
13@ LSU17-24L+7.5W53.5U
14vs Tennessee23-36L+11.0L48.5O
18vs Georgia Tech35-27W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
9-4
69.2%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS5-3
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS8-2
Last 5 ATS
WLWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off61thRush Off46thRed Zone Off87th3rd Down Off81thPass Def6thRush Def49thRed Zone Def34th3rd Down Def4th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.02155th+0.06422th
Red Zone+0.21487th+0.07634th
Third Down+0.26681th+0.3774th
No Garbage Time+0.02255th+0.07518th
First Half+0.01854th+0.04628th
Second Half+0.02451th+0.08320th
Early Downs-0.02843th-0.05360th
Passing Downs+0.07261th+0.2216th
Standard Downs-0.00846th-0.01149th
Goal to Go+0.36695th-0.31490th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 39.0%Rush 61.0%
Havoc/Game
12.3
Havoc Rate
19.2%
TO Margin
+0.7
Explosive/G
12.9
Yards/Game
318.4
Pts/Drive
2.39
3rd Down%
44.4%
3&Out%
20.0%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — Vanderbilt vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatVanderbiltOpponents
Scoring
Points355304
Points / Game27.323.4
First Downs
Total236268
Rushing105105
Passing106142
Penalty2521
Rushing
Attempts475427
Yards1,8171,830
Yards / Carry3.84.3
Yards / Game139.8140.8
Touchdowns1813
Passing
Attempts304389
Completions179265
Completion %58.9%68.1%
Yards2,3223,064
Yards / Attempt7.67.9
Touchdowns2124
Interceptions410
Passer Rating143.21149.51
Total Offense
Plays779816
Yards4,1394,894
Yards / Play5.36.0
Yards / Game318.4376.5
Punt Returns
Returns1816
Yards265178
Average14.711.1
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns1932
Yards448575
Average23.618.0
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts5146
Yards2,4501,891
Average48.041.1
Interception Returns
Returns104
Yards12616
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles1213
Lost36
Penalties
Penalties7389
Yards707764
Yards / Game54.458.8
Time of Possession
Per Game31:0328:57
Third Downs
Attempts169162
Conversions7577
Conversion %44.4%47.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1415
Conversions88
Conversion %57.1%53.3%
Red Zone
Trips4538
Scores (TD + FG)4232
Score %93.3%84.2%
Touchdowns3222
TD %71.1%57.9%
Field Goals
Attempts2121
Made1814
Pct85.7%66.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4036
Made3936
Pct97.5%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts31
Made20
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →