Fourth Down Data
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USU

Utah State

AggiesBalanced
Pac-12 Conference4-8#126 (-8.61)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

7· FOverall
Offense
34· DRating
63· CPer play
72· BConsistency
52· CBig plays
Defense
5· FRating
4· FPer play
13· FConsistency
Situational
98· A+Red-zone O
15· DRed-zone D
59· C3rd down O
37· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.008
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.076
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.037
Defensive EPA/play
+0.154
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.7%
Def Success Rate
49.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.118
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.073
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.19

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.80
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.07
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.65
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.06
own return game
Return Defense
-0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#126
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#114
market 12 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
recruiting 46 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Utah State ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
56th
Opp-adjusted defense
1th
Offensive EPA/play
63th
Defensive EPA/play
4th
Offensive success rate
84th
Explosiveness
53th
Defensive havoc
34th
Points per drive
47th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1West Virginia2022OA +0.016 / -0.049similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, havoc rate3622New Mexico2023OA +0.067 / -0.168similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, offensive success rate3563New Mexico2024OA +0.062 / -0.109similar: run defense, rushing offense, defensive EPA3524Toledo2019OA -0.001 / -0.123similar: defensive EPA, run defense, TD drive rate3445Arizona State2022OA +0.027 / -0.075similar: takeaway rate, run defense, TD drive rate335

2024 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Robert Morris36-14W-30.5L53.5U
2@ USC0-48L+27.0L61.25U
3vs Utah21-38L+18.5W43.5O
4@ Temple29-45L-6.0L53.5O
6@ Boise State30-62L+19.0W65.5O
7vs UNLV34-50L----
8vs New Mexico45-50L+2.0L78O
9@ Wyoming27-25W+2.0W57.5U
11@ Washington State28-49L+20.5L70O
12vs Hawai'i55-10W+2.5W60O
13vs San Diego State41-20W-4.5W61P
14@ Colorado State37-42L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
8-3-1
72.7%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS5-4
Last 5 ATS
WLWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off43thRush Off93thRed Zone Off99th3rd Down Off60thPass Def34thRush Def1thRed Zone Def15th3rd Down Def37th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.09584th+0.1294th
Red Zone+0.45099th+0.16415th
Third Down+0.14160th+0.14337th
No Garbage Time+0.02154th+0.1494th
First Half+0.02154th+0.1289th
Second Half+0.18198th+0.1308th
Early Downs+0.13896th+0.1263th
Passing Downs+0.00443th+0.05134th
Standard Downs+0.13793th+0.1621th
Goal to Go+0.45597th-0.03754th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 52.0%Rush 48.0%
Havoc/Game
12.4
Havoc Rate
16.7%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
14.3
Yards/Game
467.7
Pts/Drive
2.19
3rd Down%
40.0%
3&Out%
18.7%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 12 games — Utah State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUtah StateOpponents
Scoring
Points383453
Points / Game31.937.8
First Downs
Total270281
Rushing108112
Passing140148
Penalty2221
Rushing
Attempts422478
Yards2,3832,574
Yards / Carry5.65.4
Yards / Game198.6214.5
Touchdowns2127
Passing
Attempts458393
Completions294267
Completion %64.2%67.9%
Yards3,2293,067
Yards / Attempt7.17.8
Touchdowns2928
Interceptions1713
Passer Rating136.89150.39
Total Offense
Plays880871
Yards5,6125,641
Yards / Play6.46.5
Yards / Game467.7470.1
Punt Returns
Returns1613
Yards13963
Average8.74.8
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2520
Yards479440
Average19.222.0
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5550
Yards2,3392,118
Average42.542.4
Interception Returns
Returns1317
Yards114120
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1011
Lost53
Penalties
Penalties9490
Yards885713
Yards / Game73.859.4
Time of Possession
Per Game27:1932:41
Third Downs
Attempts175169
Conversions7074
Conversion %40.0%43.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2717
Conversions1412
Conversion %51.9%70.6%
Red Zone
Trips4858
Scores (TD + FG)4154
Score %85.4%93.1%
Touchdowns3439
TD %70.8%67.2%
Field Goals
Attempts1622
Made1020
Pct62.5%90.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4750
Made4549
Pct95.7%98.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts46
Made14
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →