Fourth Down Data
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UNM

New Mexico

LobosBalanced
Mountain West Conference4-8#129 (-8.30)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

5· FOverall
Offense
59· CRating
82· BPer play
88· BConsistency
94· ABig plays
Defense
1· FRating
4· FPer play
10· FConsistency
Situational
81· BRed-zone O
46· CRed-zone D
40· C3rd down O
57· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.067
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.168
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.111
Defensive EPA/play
+0.174
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.6%
Def Success Rate
49.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
29.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.063
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.045
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.49

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-2.59
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.02
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-1.32
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.13
own return game
Return Defense
-0.11
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#129
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#122
market 7 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
recruiting 53 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where New Mexico ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
79th
Opp-adjusted defense
1th
Offensive EPA/play
83th
Defensive EPA/play
4th
Offensive success rate
82th
Explosiveness
95th
Defensive havoc
21th
Points per drive
69th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1West Virginia2024OA +0.027 / -0.079similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, defensive EPA3612West Virginia2022OA +0.016 / -0.049similar: takeaway rate, passing offense, havoc rate3583Utah State2024OA +0.008 / -0.076similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, offensive success rate3564New Mexico State2023OA +0.084 / -0.071similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, offensive success rate3365North Texas2022OA +0.077 / -0.108similar: run defense, rushing offense, TD drive rate332

2023 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Texas A&M10-52L+38.5L49O
2vs Tennessee Tech56-10W-18.0W51O
3vs New Mexico State17-27L-1.5L54.5U
4@ Massachusetts34-31W+3.5W50.5O
5@ Wyoming26-35L+14.0W40.5O
7vs San José State24-52L+8.0L58.5O
8vs Hawai'i42-21W+1.0W60O
9@ Nevada24-34L+1.0L49.5O
10vs UNLV14-56L+10.0L61O
11@ Boise State14-42L+25.0L60.5U
12@ Fresno State25-17W+23.0W56.5U
13vs Utah State41-44L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
9-3
75.0%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS5-5
Last 5 ATS
LLLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off64thRush Off93thRed Zone Off81th3rd Down Off40thPass Def8thRush Def3thRed Zone Def47th3rd Down Def58th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.11086th+0.1444th
Red Zone+0.13781th+0.01247th
Third Down+0.15940th+0.14258th
No Garbage Time+0.10684th+0.1634th
First Half+0.12383th+0.2411th
Second Half+0.09581th+0.05031th
Early Downs+0.08090th+0.1702th
Passing Downs+0.09864th+0.2148th
Standard Downs+0.11693th+0.1153th
Goal to Go+0.01748th+0.05742th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.5%Rush 55.5%
Havoc/Game
10.3
Havoc Rate
16.5%
TO Margin
-0.6
Explosive/G
15.0
Yards/Game
410.6
Pts/Drive
2.49
3rd Down%
41.4%
3&Out%
20.0%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 12 games — New Mexico vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNew MexicoOpponents
Scoring
Points327421
Points / Game27.335.1
First Downs
Total279249
Rushing122105
Passing123110
Penalty3434
Rushing
Attempts440407
Yards2,3122,066
Yards / Carry5.35.1
Yards / Game192.7172.2
Touchdowns2625
Passing
Attempts353320
Completions198195
Completion %56.1%60.9%
Yards2,6152,824
Yards / Attempt7.48.8
Touchdowns1724
Interceptions104
Passer Rating128.54157.32
Total Offense
Plays793727
Yards4,9274,890
Yards / Play6.26.7
Yards / Game410.6407.5
Punt Returns
Returns417
Yards5360
Average1.321.2
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns2829
Yards483536
Average17.318.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5338
Yards2,2041,618
Average41.642.6
Interception Returns
Returns410
Yards3211
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1615
Lost54
Penalties
Penalties11995
Yards1,076888
Yards / Game89.774.0
Time of Possession
Per Game32:3227:40
Third Downs
Attempts145132
Conversions6049
Conversion %41.4%37.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1418
Conversions99
Conversion %64.3%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips3949
Scores (TD + FG)3645
Score %92.3%91.8%
Touchdowns2831
TD %71.8%63.3%
Field Goals
Attempts1424
Made1020
Pct71.4%83.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3847
Made3747
Pct97.4%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts43
Made13
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →