Fourth Down Data
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NMSU

New Mexico State

AggiesBalanced
Conference USA10-5#50 (+2.19)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

63· COverall
Offense
72· BRating
84· BPer play
78· BConsistency
90· A-Big plays
Defense
48· CRating
20· DPer play
20· DConsistency
Situational
63· CRed-zone O
98· A+Red-zone D
60· C3rd down O
43· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.084
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.071
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.114
Defensive EPA/play
+0.071
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.0%
Def Success Rate
47.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.043
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.161
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.55

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.47
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.04
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.51
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.04
own return game
Return Defense
+0.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#50
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#71
model 21 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
model 26 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where New Mexico State ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
85th
Opp-adjusted defense
17th
Offensive EPA/play
84th
Defensive EPA/play
20th
Offensive success rate
76th
Explosiveness
91th
Defensive havoc
41th
Points per drive
73th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Georgia Tech2025OA +0.124 / -0.042similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, TD drive rate3942Arizona State2018OA +0.072 / -0.049similar: run defense, passing offense, defensive success rate3583New Mexico2023OA +0.067 / -0.168similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, offensive success rate3364West Virginia2022OA +0.016 / -0.049similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, defensive EPA3355Northwestern2026OA +0.021 / -0.125similar: passing offense, rushing offense, turnover rate333

2023 Schedule & Results

15 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0vs Massachusetts30-41L-7.0L45O
1vs Western Illinois58-21W-20.5W53O
2@ Liberty17-33L+9.5L53U
3@ New Mexico27-17W+1.5W54.5U
4@ Hawai'i17-20L+3.0P57.5U
6vs Florida International34-17W-3.5W42.5U
7vs Sam Houston27-13W-3.0W47.75U
8@ UTEP28-7W+3.0W55.25U
9@ Louisiana Tech27-24W----
10vs Middle Tennessee13-7W-3.0W56.5U
11@ Western Kentucky38-29W+4.5W57.5O
12@ Auburn31-10W+23.5W48.5U
13vs Jacksonville State20-17W+2.0W50U
14@ Liberty35-49L----
16@ Fresno State10-37L-3.5L51.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
10-4-1
71.4%
O/U Record
5-10
33.3%
Straight Up
10-5
66.7%
Home ATS5-1
Away ATS5-3
Favorite ATS5-2
Underdog ATS5-2
Last 5 ATS
WWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off71thRush Off90thRed Zone Off63th3rd Down Off61thPass Def52thRush Def17thRed Zone Def99th3rd Down Def43th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.10985th+0.06325th
Red Zone+0.06363th-0.31199th
Third Down+0.23761th+0.19543th
No Garbage Time+0.11385th+0.07421th
First Half+0.16390th+0.12511th
Second Half+0.05070th+0.00948th
Early Downs+0.08291th+0.02328th
Passing Downs+0.12171th+0.03052th
Standard Downs+0.10490th+0.07917th
Goal to Go+0.11672th-0.38092th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.8%Rush 57.2%
Havoc/Game
11.6
Havoc Rate
17.6%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
15.9
Yards/Game
412.4
Pts/Drive
2.55
3rd Down%
43.3%
3&Out%
18.8%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 15 games — New Mexico State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNew Mexico StateOpponents
Scoring
Points412342
Points / Game27.522.8
First Downs
Total308312
Rushing148123
Passing138160
Penalty2229
Rushing
Attempts525487
Yards2,9802,156
Yards / Carry5.74.4
Yards / Game198.7143.7
Touchdowns2222
Passing
Attempts393477
Completions235305
Completion %59.8%63.9%
Yards3,2063,730
Yards / Attempt8.27.8
Touchdowns2819
Interceptions107
Passer Rating146.74139.84
Total Offense
Plays918964
Yards6,1865,886
Yards / Play6.76.1
Yards / Game412.4392.4
Punt Returns
Returns188
Yards13566
Average7.58.3
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1824
Yards337473
Average18.719.7
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5356
Yards2,1292,366
Average40.242.3
Interception Returns
Returns710
Yards88144
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1412
Lost56
Penalties
Penalties9794
Yards918810
Yards / Game61.254.0
Time of Possession
Per Game31:1528:11
Third Downs
Attempts171188
Conversions7470
Conversion %43.3%37.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1931
Conversions1117
Conversion %57.9%54.8%
Red Zone
Trips5262
Scores (TD + FG)4545
Score %86.5%72.6%
Touchdowns3230
TD %61.5%48.4%
Field Goals
Attempts2426
Made1916
Pct79.2%61.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5038
Made4936
Pct98.0%94.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts04
Made03
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →