Fourth Down Data
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UNM

New Mexico

LobosBalanced
Mountain West Conference5-7#125 (-7.83)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

7· FOverall
Offense
72· BRating
96· APer play
95· AConsistency
94· ABig plays
Defense
0· FRating
0· FPer play
1· FConsistency
Situational
92· A-Red-zone O
6· FRed-zone D
72· B3rd down O
7· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.062
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.109
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.165
Defensive EPA/play
+0.201
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.3%
Def Success Rate
51.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.035
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.048
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.71

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.49
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.33
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.09
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.01
own return game
Return Defense
-0.07
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#125
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#113
market 12 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
recruiting 45 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where New Mexico ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
96th
Opp-adjusted defense
0th
Offensive EPA/play
97th
Defensive EPA/play
0th
Offensive success rate
96th
Explosiveness
95th
Defensive havoc
4th
Points per drive
83th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Utah State2024OA +0.008 / -0.076similar: run defense, rushing offense, defensive EPA3522North Texas2020OA +0.038 / -0.073similar: run defense, defensive EPA, rushing offense3513North Texas2023OA +0.070 / -0.236similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3504Arkansas2025OA +0.154 / -0.134similar: defensive success rate, rushing offense, TD drive rate3395West Virginia2024OA +0.027 / -0.079similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, havoc rate334

2024 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0vs Montana State31-35L+13.5W54.5O
1@ Arizona39-61L+31.0W58.5O
3@ Auburn19-45L+28.0W60.5O
4vs Fresno State21-38L+14.0L60U
5@ New Mexico State50-40W-9.0W54.5O
7vs Air Force52-37W-6.5W54O
8@ Utah State50-45W-2.0W78O
9@ Colorado State6-17L+6.5L65.5U
10vs Wyoming45-49L+3.0W66.5U
11@ San Diego State21-16W----
12vs Washington State38-35W+12.5W72O
14@ Hawai'i30-38L-2.5L61.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-4
66.7%
O/U Record
9-3
75.0%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS3-2
Away ATS5-2
Favorite ATS3-2
Underdog ATS5-2
Last 5 ATS
LLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off79thRush Off99thRed Zone Off93th3rd Down Off73thPass Def4thRush Def1thRed Zone Def6th3rd Down Def7th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.17399th+0.2140th
Red Zone+0.25893th+0.3116th
Third Down+0.19773th+0.3387th
No Garbage Time+0.17197th+0.1960th
First Half+0.20298th+0.2360th
Second Half+0.14392th+0.1892th
Early Downs+0.15698th+0.2000th
Passing Downs+0.12779th+0.2514th
Standard Downs+0.19299th+0.1981th
Goal to Go-0.03740th+0.11928th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.1%Rush 53.9%
Havoc/Game
9.5
Havoc Rate
13.1%
TO Margin
-0.8
Explosive/G
18.5
Yards/Game
484.3
Pts/Drive
2.71
3rd Down%
43.6%
3&Out%
13.2%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 12 games — New Mexico vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNew MexicoOpponents
Scoring
Points402456
Points / Game33.538.0
First Downs
Total298296
Rushing149127
Passing125140
Penalty2429
Rushing
Attempts456471
Yards3,0432,555
Yards / Carry6.75.4
Yards / Game253.6212.9
Touchdowns3727
Passing
Attempts390396
Completions226256
Completion %57.9%64.6%
Yards2,7683,350
Yards / Attempt7.18.5
Touchdowns1230
Interceptions123
Passer Rating121.57159.19
Total Offense
Plays846867
Yards5,8115,905
Yards / Play6.96.8
Yards / Game484.3492.1
Punt Returns
Returns916
Yards88208
Average9.813.0
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns1931
Yards348734
Average18.323.7
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4136
Yards1,7501,507
Average42.741.9
Interception Returns
Returns312
Yards3109
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1617
Lost77
Penalties
Penalties11284
Yards978785
Yards / Game81.565.4
Time of Possession
Per Game28:5331:09
Third Downs
Attempts149164
Conversions6582
Conversion %43.6%50.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1821
Conversions1313
Conversion %72.2%61.9%
Red Zone
Trips4848
Scores (TD + FG)4445
Score %91.7%93.8%
Touchdowns3337
TD %68.8%77.1%
Field Goals
Attempts1820
Made1315
Pct72.2%75.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4255
Made4155
Pct97.6%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts104
Made51
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →