Fourth Down Data
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ARK

Arkansas

RazorbacksBalanced
Southeastern Conference2-10#55 (+3.07)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

59· COverall
Offense
90· A-Rating
90· A-Per play
84· BConsistency
98· A+Big plays
Defense
18· DRating
1· FPer play
1· FConsistency
Situational
95· ARed-zone O
39· DRed-zone D
93· A3rd down O
4· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.154
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.134
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.134
Defensive EPA/play
+0.190
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.3%
Def Success Rate
52.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
29.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.056
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.154
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.81

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.53
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.08
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.33
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.02
own return game
Return Defense
-0.14
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#55
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#60
model 5 higher
Recruiting Rank
#23
recruiting 32 spots higher
24 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Arkansas ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
93th
Opp-adjusted defense
7th
Offensive EPA/play
91th
Defensive EPA/play
1th
Offensive success rate
93th
Explosiveness
99th
Defensive havoc
39th
Points per drive
85th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1North Texas2023OA +0.070 / -0.236similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, defensive success rate3632Oklahoma State2018OA +0.102 / -0.090similar: takeaway rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3543Cincinnati2025OA +0.189 / -0.095similar: takeaway rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3404New Mexico2024OA +0.062 / -0.109similar: defensive success rate, rushing offense, TD drive rate3395Arizona2022OA +0.125 / -0.168similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, run defense336

2025 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Alabama A&M52-7W-43.5W64.5U
2vs Arkansas State56-14W-28.8W73.25U
3@ Ole Miss35-41L+3.5L60.5O
4@ Memphis31-32L-7.0L61O
5vs Notre Dame13-56L+4.5L64O
7@ Tennessee31-34L+6.5W69U
8vs Texas A&M42-45L+10.5W59O
9vs Auburn24-33L-2.5L56O
10vs Mississippi State35-38L-5.8L53.5O
12@ LSU22-23L+5.5W57.5U
13@ Texas37-52L+9.5L76.5O
14vs Missouri17-31L+3.5L58.75U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
2-10
16.7%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS2-3
Underdog ATS3-4
Last 5 ATS
LLWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off97thRush Off70thRed Zone Off96th3rd Down Off94thPass Def3thRush Def10thRed Zone Def39th3rd Down Def4th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.13591th+0.1652th
Red Zone+0.27096th+0.04439th
Third Down+0.39994th+0.3744th
No Garbage Time+0.13490th+0.1901th
First Half+0.25199th+0.1912th
Second Half+0.01459th+0.1384th
Early Downs+0.02364th+0.07911th
Passing Downs+0.31397th+0.2713th
Standard Downs+0.04970th+0.11010th
Goal to Go+0.26686th-0.04053th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 48.5%Rush 51.5%
Havoc/Game
12.1
Havoc Rate
17.2%
TO Margin
-0.9
Explosive/G
16.9
Yards/Game
454.8
Pts/Drive
2.81
3rd Down%
47.9%
3&Out%
15.4%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 12 games — Arkansas vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatArkansasOpponents
Scoring
Points395406
Points / Game32.933.8
First Downs
Total278286
Rushing128127
Passing131125
Penalty1934
Rushing
Attempts405475
Yards2,3032,231
Yards / Carry5.74.7
Yards / Game191.9185.9
Touchdowns2524
Passing
Attempts381339
Completions231213
Completion %60.6%62.8%
Yards3,1552,871
Yards / Attempt8.38.5
Touchdowns2222
Interceptions116
Passer Rating143.47151.85
Total Offense
Plays786814
Yards5,4585,102
Yards / Play6.96.3
Yards / Game454.8425.2
Punt Returns
Returns177
Yards124105
Average7.315.0
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns1213
Yards269350
Average22.426.9
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts3540
Yards1,5691,706
Average44.842.6
Interception Returns
Returns611
Yards160115
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1412
Lost93
Penalties
Penalties9373
Yards804607
Yards / Game67.050.6
Time of Possession
Per Game28:5930:59
Third Downs
Attempts140150
Conversions6767
Conversion %47.9%44.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1716
Conversions911
Conversion %52.9%68.8%
Red Zone
Trips4853
Scores (TD + FG)4447
Score %91.7%88.7%
Touchdowns3634
TD %75.0%64.2%
Field Goals
Attempts1821
Made1419
Pct77.8%90.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4745
Made4745
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts45
Made32
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →