Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
USC

USC

TrojansBalanced
Big Ten Conference11-3#34 (+3.98)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

75· BOverall
Offense
96· ARating
99· A+Per play
97· A+Consistency
98· A+Big plays
Defense
14· FRating
4· FPer play
7· FConsistency
Situational
98· A+Red-zone O
21· DRed-zone D
99· A+3rd down O
16· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.250
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.155
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.282
Defensive EPA/play
+0.176
lower = better
Off Success Rate
55.0%
Def Success Rate
50.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
29.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
28.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.106
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.051
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.56

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.74
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.13
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.30
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.07
own return game
Return Defense
-0.50
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#34
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#12
AP 22 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#8
market 26 higher
Recruiting Rank
#19
recruiting 15 spots higher
28 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where USC ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
100th
Opp-adjusted defense
4th
Offensive EPA/play
100th
Defensive EPA/play
4th
Offensive success rate
99th
Explosiveness
99th
Defensive havoc
73th
Points per drive
98th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UCF2020OA +0.077 / -0.036similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, turnover rate4072Washington State2024OA +0.048 / -0.028similar: passing offense, pass defense, TD drive rate3843SMU2017OA +0.140 / -0.078similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, defensive EPA3674Memphis2017OA +0.130 / +0.006similar: takeaway rate, pass defense, havoc rate3665Duke2025OA +0.147 / -0.119similar: passing offense, pass defense, TD drive rate363

2022 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Rice66-14W-32.5W61.5O
2@ Stanford41-28W-10.5W55.5O
3vs Fresno State45-17W-11.3W74U
4@ Oregon State17-14W-6.0L70.5U
5vs Arizona State42-25W-25.0L60.5O
6vs Washington State30-14W-13.5W62.5U
7@ Utah42-43L+3.5W65O
9@ Arizona45-37W-15.5L76.5O
10vs California41-35W-21.5L60O
11vs Colorado55-17W----
12@ UCLA48-45W-2.0W75.5O
13vs Notre Dame38-27W-2.5L66.5O
14vs Utah24-47L----
18vs Tulane45-46L-2.5L65.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-6
57.1%
O/U Record
11-3
78.6%
Straight Up
11-3
78.6%
Home ATS5-4
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS7-6
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
LWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off99thRush Off100thRed Zone Off99th3rd Down Off100thPass Def22thRush Def1thRed Zone Def21th3rd Down Def16th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.284100th+0.1644th
Red Zone+0.39199th+0.14421th
Third Down+0.730100th+0.27016th
No Garbage Time+0.282100th+0.1764th
First Half+0.298100th+0.1516th
Second Half+0.26899th+0.1752th
Early Downs+0.15899th+0.2091th
Passing Downs+0.35299th+0.09322th
Standard Downs+0.256100th+0.1971th
Goal to Go+0.34393th+0.10027th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 52.1%Rush 47.9%
Havoc/Game
13.8
Havoc Rate
20.6%
TO Margin
+1.5
Explosive/G
19.7
Yards/Game
506.6
Pts/Drive
3.56
3rd Down%
53.6%
3&Out%
10.3%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 14 games — USC vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUSCOpponents
Scoring
Points579409
Points / Game41.429.2
First Downs
Total359310
Rushing138120
Passing195162
Penalty2628
Rushing
Attempts473449
Yards2,3962,237
Yards / Carry5.15.0
Yards / Game171.1159.8
Touchdowns3029
Passing
Attempts515460
Completions345293
Completion %67.0%63.7%
Yards4,6963,698
Yards / Attempt9.18.0
Touchdowns4325
Interceptions519
Passer Rating169.20140.90
Total Offense
Plays988909
Yards7,0925,935
Yards / Play7.26.5
Yards / Game506.6423.9
Punt Returns
Returns177
Yards9380
Average5.511.4
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3751
Yards6551,050
Average17.720.6
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts3243
Yards1,2921,764
Average40.441.0
Interception Returns
Returns195
Yards33953
Touchdowns30
Fumbles
Fumbles1314
Lost29
Penalties
Penalties8882
Yards812699
Yards / Game58.049.9
Time of Possession
Per Game31:5728:03
Third Downs
Attempts168170
Conversions9073
Conversion %53.6%42.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2229
Conversions1519
Conversion %68.2%65.5%
Red Zone
Trips7756
Scores (TD + FG)6646
Score %85.7%82.1%
Touchdowns5939
TD %76.6%69.6%
Field Goals
Attempts2213
Made1510
Pct68.2%76.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts7447
Made7445
Pct100.0%95.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts27
Made14
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →