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UNLV
UNLV
RebelsBalancedMountain West Conference4-8#118 (-13.26)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
13· FOverall
Offense
27· DRating
17· DPer play
10· FConsistency
10· FBig plays
Defense
19· DRating
43· CPer play
21· DConsistency
Situational
82· BRed-zone O
56· CRed-zone D
1· F3rd down O
73· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.078
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.055
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.101
Defensive EPA/play
+0.022
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.4%
Def Success Rate
48.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.123
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.050
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.64
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-2.49
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.66
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.58
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.10
own return game
Return Defense
-0.15
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#118
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 43 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where UNLV ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense19th
Opp-adjusted defense29th
Offensive EPA/play17th
Defensive EPA/play43th
Offensive success rate16th
Explosiveness10th
Defensive havoc18th
Points per drive17th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Wyoming2024OA -0.049 / -0.004similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, offensive EPA3772Wisconsin2024OA -0.031 / +0.002similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, passing offense3533BYU2023OA -0.085 / +0.000similar: defensive success rate, offensive EPA, defensive EPA3494Nebraska2022OA +0.012 / -0.072similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, defensive EPA3465Colorado2025OA -0.044 / -0.049similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, run defense345
2019 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Southern Utah | 56-23 | W | -24.5 | W | 70.5 | O |
| 2 | vs Arkansas State | 17-43 | L | +1.0 | L | 63.5 | U |
| 3 | @ Northwestern | 14-30 | L | +18.5 | W | 52 | U |
| 5 | @ Wyoming | 17-53 | L | +8.0 | L | 44.5 | O |
| 6 | vs Boise State | 13-38 | L | +24.0 | L | 57 | U |
| 7 | @ Vanderbilt | 34-10 | W | +16.5 | W | 57.5 | U |
| 8 | @ Fresno State | 27-56 | L | +14.5 | L | 52 | O |
| 9 | vs San Diego State | 17-20 | L | +12.0 | W | 45 | U |
| 10 | @ Colorado State | 17-37 | L | +7.5 | L | 64 | U |
| 12 | vs Hawai'i | 7-21 | L | +6.5 | L | 72 | U |
| 13 | vs San José State | 38-35 | W | +7.0 | W | 65.5 | O |
| 14 | @ Nevada | 33-30 | W | +7.0 | W | 51.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS5-6
Last 5 ATS
WLLWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.080 | 22th | +0.024 | 39th |
| Red Zone | +0.177 | 83th | -0.031 | 56th |
| Third Down | -0.364 | 1th | -0.093 | 74th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.092 | 19th | +0.017 | 43th |
| First Half | -0.022 | 43th | +0.007 | 49th |
| Second Half | -0.132 | 16th | +0.043 | 31th |
| Early Downs | +0.002 | 49th | +0.085 | 11th |
| Passing Downs | -0.192 | 7th | +0.050 | 37th |
| Standard Downs | -0.016 | 40th | +0.011 | 44th |
| Goal to Go | +0.314 | 91th | -0.042 | 50th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 46.7%Rush 53.3%
Havoc/Game
11.4
Havoc Rate
15.6%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
12.0
Yards/Game
374.3
Pts/Drive
1.64
3rd Down%
28.6%
3&Out%
24.4%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 12 games — UNLV vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | UNLV | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 290 | 396 |
| Points / Game | 24.2 | 33.0 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 232 | 261 |
| Rushing | 112 | 106 |
| Passing | 98 | 137 |
| Penalty | 22 | 18 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 443 | 435 |
| Yards | 2,018 | 2,234 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.6 | 5.1 |
| Yards / Game | 168.2 | 186.2 |
| Touchdowns | 17 | 28 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 388 | 413 |
| Completions | 208 | 245 |
| Completion % | 53.6% | 59.3% |
| Yards | 2,474 | 3,074 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.4 | 7.4 |
| Touchdowns | 20 | 16 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 9 |
| Passer Rating | 117.99 | 130.27 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 831 | 848 |
| Yards | 4,492 | 5,308 |
| Yards / Play | 5.4 | 6.3 |
| Yards / Game | 374.3 | 442.3 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 20 | 43 |
| Yards | 49 | 482 |
| Average | 2.5 | 11.2 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 27 | 33 |
| Yards | 454 | 695 |
| Average | 16.8 | 21.1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 68 | 53 |
| Yards | 2,890 | 2,213 |
| Average | 42.5 | 41.8 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 12 |
| Yards | 95 | 195 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 17 | 12 |
| Lost | 6 | 5 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 65 | 76 |
| Yards | 536 | 746 |
| Yards / Game | 44.7 | 62.2 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:01 | 29:59 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 168 | 172 |
| Conversions | 48 | 67 |
| Conversion % | 28.6% | 39.0% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 33 | 21 |
| Conversions | 17 | 9 |
| Conversion % | 51.5% | 42.9% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 33 | 52 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 29 | 42 |
| Score % | 87.9% | 80.8% |
| Touchdowns | 23 | 31 |
| TD % | 69.7% | 59.6% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 14 | 26 |
| Made | 11 | 18 |
| Pct | 78.6% | 69.2% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 36 | 48 |
| Made | 35 | 44 |
| Pct | 97.2% | 91.7% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 1 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.