Fourth Down Data
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BYU

BYU

CougarsBalanced
Big 12 Conference5-7#74 (-0.98)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

45· COverall
Offense
29· DRating
14· FPer play
11· FConsistency
28· DBig plays
Defense
51· CRating
48· CPer play
23· DConsistency
Situational
34· DRed-zone O
72· BRed-zone D
12· F3rd down O
3· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.085
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.000
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.090
Defensive EPA/play
+0.006
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.7%
Def Success Rate
47.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.096
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.032
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.86

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.88
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.09
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.02
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.10
own return game
Return Defense
-0.09
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#74
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#101
model 27 higher
Recruiting Rank
#53
recruiting 21 spots higher
6 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where BYU ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
17th
Opp-adjusted defense
53th
Offensive EPA/play
14th
Defensive EPA/play
48th
Offensive success rate
9th
Explosiveness
28th
Defensive havoc
7th
Points per drive
29th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Colorado2025OA -0.044 / -0.049similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, defensive success rate3582Vanderbilt2023OA -0.121 / -0.060similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, turnover rate3503UNLV2019OA -0.078 / -0.055similar: defensive success rate, offensive EPA, defensive EPA3494Nevada2023OA -0.179 / +0.003similar: havoc rate, offensive success rate, defensive EPA3475Syracuse2020OA -0.111 / +0.002similar: defensive EPA, turnover rate, defensive success rate341

2023 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Sam Houston14-0W-20.0L46.5U
2vs Southern Utah41-16W-28.3L49.5O
3@ Arkansas38-31W+8.0W47.5O
4@ Kansas27-38L+1.0W49.5O
5vs Cincinnati35-27W----
7@ TCU11-44L+5.5L53O
8vs Texas Tech27-14W+4.5W52U
9@ Texas6-35L+17.5L50U
10@ West Virginia7-37L+10.0L51U
11vs Iowa State13-45L+6.5L41.5O
12vs Oklahoma24-31L+24.0W57U
13@ Oklahoma State34-40L+17.0W56.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS0-2
Underdog ATS5-5
Last 5 ATS
LLLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off21thRush Off13thRed Zone Off34th3rd Down Off13thPass Def5thRush Def91thRed Zone Def73th3rd Down Def3th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.10012th+0.00250th
Red Zone-0.07034th-0.11973th
Third Down-0.04213th+0.5673th
No Garbage Time-0.10011th+0.00850th
First Half-0.04929th-0.03570th
Second Half-0.1489th+0.04335th
Early Downs-0.1677th-0.12386th
Passing Downs-0.06721th+0.2475th
Standard Downs-0.12113th-0.13791th
Goal to Go+0.13373th-0.26883th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 52.4%Rush 47.6%
Havoc/Game
10.6
Havoc Rate
14.7%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
11.6
Yards/Game
309.8
Pts/Drive
1.86
3rd Down%
28.5%
3&Out%
31.8%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 12 games — BYU vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatBYUOpponents
Scoring
Points277358
Points / Game23.129.8
First Downs
Total201260
Rushing70109
Passing113134
Penalty1817
Rushing
Attempts360439
Yards1,2522,132
Yards / Carry3.54.9
Yards / Game104.3177.7
Touchdowns1518
Passing
Attempts396408
Completions220250
Completion %55.6%61.3%
Yards2,4652,880
Yards / Attempt6.27.1
Touchdowns1721
Interceptions914
Passer Rating117.46130.69
Total Offense
Plays756847
Yards3,7175,012
Yards / Play4.95.9
Yards / Game309.8417.7
Punt Returns
Returns2325
Yards92343
Average4.013.7
Touchdowns02
Kickoff Returns
Returns3017
Yards612327
Average20.419.2
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6849
Yards3,2892,085
Average48.442.6
Interception Returns
Returns149
Yards208308
Touchdowns23
Fumbles
Fumbles2014
Lost106
Penalties
Penalties6489
Yards516732
Yards / Game43.061.0
Time of Possession
Per Game28:1931:41
Third Downs
Attempts158173
Conversions4578
Conversion %28.5%45.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2622
Conversions138
Conversion %50.0%36.4%
Red Zone
Trips3746
Scores (TD + FG)3038
Score %81.1%82.6%
Touchdowns2326
TD %62.2%56.5%
Field Goals
Attempts1418
Made1115
Pct78.6%83.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3343
Made3241
Pct97.0%95.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts22
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →