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ULM
UL Monroe
WarhawksRun-HeavySun Belt Conference3-9#131 (-18.38)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
4· FOverall
Offense
8· FRating
13· FPer play
3· FConsistency
44· CBig plays
Defense
11· FRating
40· CPer play
59· CConsistency
Situational
75· BRed-zone O
60· CRed-zone D
23· D3rd down O
34· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.062
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.063
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.111
Defensive EPA/play
+0.012
lower = better
Off Success Rate
39.2%
Def Success Rate
44.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.123
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.024
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.44
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-2.20
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.75
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.39
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.15
own return game
Return Defense
+0.09
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#131
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#130
market 1 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
recruiting 52 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where UL Monroe ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense30th
Opp-adjusted defense24th
Offensive EPA/play13th
Defensive EPA/play40th
Offensive success rate2th
Explosiveness44th
Defensive havoc31th
Points per drive9th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1South Alabama2019OA -0.148 / -0.021similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, rushing offense3922Rutgers2017OA -0.112 / +0.007similar: offensive success rate, rushing offense, takeaway rate3673Boston College2022OA -0.150 / -0.005similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, takeaway rate3574North Carolina2017OA -0.028 / -0.042similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, turnover rate3475Florida International2023OA -0.096 / -0.084similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate345
2025 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Saint Francis (PA) | 29-0 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | @ Alabama | 0-73 | L | +34.5 | L | 49.5 | O |
| 4 | @ UTEP | 31-25 | W | +6.5 | W | 47.5 | O |
| 5 | vs Arkansas State | 28-16 | W | -6.5 | W | 48.5 | U |
| 6 | @ Northwestern | 7-42 | L | +24.5 | L | 45.5 | O |
| 7 | @ Coastal Carolina | 8-23 | L | -2.5 | L | 46.5 | U |
| 8 | vs Troy | 14-37 | L | +15.5 | L | 50.5 | O |
| 9 | @ Southern Miss | 21-49 | L | +18.5 | L | 63.5 | O |
| 10 | vs Old Dominion | 6-31 | L | +30.5 | W | 44 | U |
| 12 | vs South Alabama | 14-26 | L | -4.5 | L | 47.5 | U |
| 13 | @ Texas State | 14-31 | L | +20.5 | W | 59.5 | U |
| 14 | @ Louisiana | 27-30 | L | +7.5 | W | 51.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-6
45.5%
O/U Record
6-5
54.5%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS2-2
Away ATS3-4
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS4-4
Last 5 ATS
LWLWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.109 | 13th | +0.016 | 37th |
| Red Zone | +0.123 | 76th | -0.054 | 61th |
| Third Down | -0.068 | 24th | +0.127 | 35th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.113 | 13th | -0.002 | 44th |
| First Half | -0.103 | 18th | -0.026 | 52th |
| Second Half | -0.115 | 12th | +0.061 | 24th |
| Early Downs | -0.020 | 45th | -0.045 | 61th |
| Passing Downs | -0.244 | 5th | +0.064 | 27th |
| Standard Downs | -0.018 | 39th | -0.010 | 52th |
| Goal to Go | +0.306 | 90th | -0.154 | 72th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 41.3%Rush 58.7%
Havoc/Game
11.5
Havoc Rate
16.6%
TO Margin
-0.8
Explosive/G
11.4
Yards/Game
323.5
Pts/Drive
1.44
3rd Down%
32.4%
3&Out%
22.3%
Team Statistics
2025 season totals across 12 games — UL Monroe vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | UL Monroe | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 199 | 383 |
| Points / Game | 16.6 | 31.9 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 212 | 242 |
| Rushing | 95 | 93 |
| Passing | 96 | 124 |
| Penalty | 21 | 25 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 430 | 455 |
| Yards | 1,957 | 1,951 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.6 | 4.3 |
| Yards / Game | 163.1 | 162.6 |
| Touchdowns | 12 | 23 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 303 | 354 |
| Completions | 172 | 224 |
| Completion % | 56.8% | 63.3% |
| Yards | 1,925 | 2,667 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.4 | 7.5 |
| Touchdowns | 15 | 21 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 5 |
| Passer Rating | 118.55 | 143.31 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 733 | 809 |
| Yards | 3,882 | 4,618 |
| Yards / Play | 5.3 | 5.7 |
| Yards / Game | 323.5 | 384.8 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 15 |
| Yards | 98 | 163 |
| Average | 8.2 | 10.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 33 |
| Yards | 95 | 437 |
| Average | 7.9 | 13.2 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 59 | 46 |
| Yards | 2,293 | 1,864 |
| Average | 38.9 | 40.5 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 5 | 12 |
| Yards | 15 | 130 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 12 | 13 |
| Lost | 7 | 4 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 88 | 63 |
| Yards | 780 | 598 |
| Yards / Game | 65.0 | 49.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:36 | 30:22 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 148 | 172 |
| Conversions | 48 | 73 |
| Conversion % | 32.4% | 42.4% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 27 | 26 |
| Conversions | 10 | 16 |
| Conversion % | 37.0% | 61.5% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 28 | 51 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 18 | 43 |
| Score % | 64.3% | 84.3% |
| Touchdowns | 17 | 30 |
| TD % | 60.7% | 58.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 7 | 22 |
| Made | 2 | 18 |
| Pct | 28.6% | 81.8% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 25 | 44 |
| Made | 21 | 43 |
| Pct | 84.0% | 97.7% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 3 |
| Made | 2 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.