Fourth Down Data
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TULN

Tulane

Green WaveRun-Heavy
American Conference6-6#31 (+4.25)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

76· BOverall
Offense
70· BRating
69· CPer play
77· BConsistency
62· CBig plays
Defense
58· CRating
56· CPer play
72· BConsistency
Situational
97· A+Red-zone O
62· CRed-zone D
35· D3rd down O
44· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.023
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.001
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.071
Defensive EPA/play
+0.006
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.0%
Def Success Rate
45.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.065
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.051
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.45

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.84
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.32
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.90
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.44
own return game
Return Defense
+0.18
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#31
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#54
model 23 higher
Recruiting Rank
#38
model 7 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Tulane ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
74th
Opp-adjusted defense
53th
Offensive EPA/play
69th
Defensive EPA/play
57th
Offensive success rate
81th
Explosiveness
62th
Defensive havoc
76th
Points per drive
64th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Georgia State2021OA +0.037 / +0.060similar: havoc rate, run defense, rushing offense3582Memphis2025OA +0.037 / +0.005similar: havoc rate, rushing offense, TD drive rate3423Penn State2019OA +0.081 / +0.107similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, turnover rate3384Notre Dame2017OA +0.053 / +0.157similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, run defense3355Kansas State2024OA +0.024 / +0.031similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, rushing offense321

2020 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
2@ South Alabama27-24W-9.0L53.5U
3vs Navy24-27L-6.5L48.5O
4@ Southern Miss66-24W-3.5W54.5O
6@ Houston31-49L+6.5W64.5O
7vs SMU34-37L----
8@ UCF34-51L+19.5W72O
9vs Temple38-3W-4.0W59U
10@ East Carolina38-21W-5.0W60.5U
11vs Army38-12W+5.0L55.5U
12@ Tulsa24-30L----
14vs Memphis35-21W-1.5W63U
17@ Nevada27-38L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS4-1
Away ATS3-4
Favorite ATS5-3
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
WWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off48thRush Off84thRed Zone Off98th3rd Down Off35thPass Def60thRush Def61thRed Zone Def63th3rd Down Def45th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.07569th+0.00159th
Red Zone+0.32598th-0.06363th
Third Down-0.01135th+0.10045th
No Garbage Time+0.06869th+0.01153th
First Half+0.03256th+0.04639th
Second Half+0.12186th-0.04772th
Early Downs+0.07179th+0.05132th
Passing Downs+0.02948th+0.01660th
Standard Downs+0.10084th-0.00861th
Goal to Go+0.55196th-0.15575th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 37.8%Rush 62.2%
Havoc/Game
16.3
Havoc Rate
21.0%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
16.2
Yards/Game
393.8
Pts/Drive
2.45
3rd Down%
34.0%
3&Out%
25.3%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 12 games — Tulane vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTulaneOpponents
Scoring
Points416337
Points / Game34.728.1
First Downs
Total258255
Rushing137110
Passing103124
Penalty1821
Rushing
Attempts516505
Yards2,6051,720
Yards / Carry5.03.4
Yards / Game217.1143.3
Touchdowns3216
Passing
Attempts313395
Completions165239
Completion %52.7%60.5%
Yards2,1203,344
Yards / Attempt6.88.5
Touchdowns2127
Interceptions109
Passer Rating125.36149.62
Total Offense
Plays829900
Yards4,7255,064
Yards / Play5.75.6
Yards / Game393.8422.0
Punt Returns
Returns2022
Yards253147
Average12.76.7
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2532
Yards602632
Average24.119.8
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5757
Yards2,5762,309
Average45.240.5
Interception Returns
Returns910
Yards142200
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1718
Lost410
Penalties
Penalties7571
Yards629599
Yards / Game52.449.9
Time of Possession
Per Game28:3831:22
Third Downs
Attempts150195
Conversions5178
Conversion %34.0%40.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2233
Conversions1216
Conversion %54.5%48.5%
Red Zone
Trips4741
Scores (TD + FG)4031
Score %85.1%75.6%
Touchdowns3425
TD %72.3%61.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1518
Made99
Pct60.0%50.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5238
Made5134
Pct98.1%89.5%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts46
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →