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TROY
Troy
TrojansBalancedSun Belt Conference5-7#109 (-5.75)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
19· DOverall
Offense
13· FRating
14· FPer play
22· DConsistency
19· DBig plays
Defense
44· CRating
70· BPer play
77· BConsistency
Situational
35· DRed-zone O
18· DRed-zone D
47· C3rd down O
32· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.126
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.004
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.125
Defensive EPA/play
-0.054
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.1%
Def Success Rate
43.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.071
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.259
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.63
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-2.44
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.55
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.89
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-1.61
own return game
Return Defense
+0.61
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#109
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#63
market 46 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
recruiting 37 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Troy ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense9th
Opp-adjusted defense41th
Offensive EPA/play14th
Defensive EPA/play71th
Offensive success rate32th
Explosiveness19th
Defensive havoc77th
Points per drive16th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Mississippi State2020OA -0.062 / +0.041similar: rushing offense, turnover rate, run defense3742Eastern Michigan2026OA -0.077 / +0.050similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, defensive EPA3733Sacramento State2026OA -0.109 / +0.054similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, offensive EPA3634Central Michigan2017OA -0.059 / +0.044similar: run defense, offensive EPA, passing offense3525Liberty2022OA -0.042 / +0.014similar: passing offense, turnover rate, run defense351
2021 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Southern | 55-3 | W | -26.0 | W | 56.5 | O |
| 2 | vs Liberty | 13-21 | L | +6.5 | L | 60 | U |
| 3 | @ Southern Miss | 21-9 | W | -6.5 | W | 26.75 | O |
| 4 | @ UL Monroe | 16-29 | L | -23.5 | L | 49.5 | U |
| 5 | @ South Carolina | 14-23 | L | +6.5 | L | 43 | U |
| 6 | vs Georgia Southern | 27-24 | W | -5.5 | L | 50.5 | O |
| 7 | @ Texas State | 31-28 | W | -7.5 | L | 48 | O |
| 9 | @ Coastal Carolina | 28-35 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 10 | vs South Alabama | 31-24 | W | -4.0 | W | 48 | O |
| 11 | vs Louisiana | 21-35 | L | +7.0 | L | 47.5 | O |
| 12 | vs App State | 7-45 | L | +9.5 | L | 52 | P |
| 13 | @ Georgia State | 10-37 | L | +6.5 | L | 50 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
7-4-1
63.6%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS3-3
Underdog ATS1-5
Last 5 ATS
WWLLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.109 | 14th | -0.048 | 65th |
| Red Zone | -0.096 | 36th | +0.140 | 18th |
| Third Down | +0.063 | 47th | +0.151 | 32th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.123 | 17th | -0.056 | 68th |
| First Half | -0.102 | 20th | -0.110 | 83th |
| Second Half | -0.117 | 14th | +0.017 | 41th |
| Early Downs | -0.126 | 13th | -0.090 | 78th |
| Passing Downs | -0.063 | 32th | -0.118 | 77th |
| Standard Downs | -0.135 | 11th | -0.004 | 50th |
| Goal to Go | -0.359 | 8th | +0.039 | 40th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 53.3%Rush 46.7%
Havoc/Game
14.3
Havoc Rate
20.6%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
13.3
Yards/Game
336.4
Pts/Drive
1.63
3rd Down%
40.1%
3&Out%
29.0%
Team Statistics
2021 season totals across 12 games — Troy vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Troy | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 274 | 313 |
| Points / Game | 22.8 | 26.1 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 219 | 226 |
| Rushing | 71 | 104 |
| Passing | 126 | 100 |
| Penalty | 22 | 22 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 366 | 492 |
| Yards | 1,187 | 1,714 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.2 | 3.5 |
| Yards / Game | 98.9 | 142.8 |
| Touchdowns | 18 | 15 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 418 | 307 |
| Completions | 264 | 189 |
| Completion % | 63.2% | 61.6% |
| Yards | 2,850 | 2,339 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.8 | 7.6 |
| Touchdowns | 15 | 19 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 16 |
| Passer Rating | 127.49 | 135.56 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 784 | 799 |
| Yards | 4,037 | 4,053 |
| Yards / Play | 5.1 | 5.1 |
| Yards / Game | 336.4 | 337.8 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 8 | 19 |
| Yards | 63 | 113 |
| Average | 7.9 | 5.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 17 | 32 |
| Yards | 275 | 560 |
| Average | 16.2 | 17.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 63 | 55 |
| Yards | 2,605 | 2,368 |
| Average | 41.3 | 43.1 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 16 | 10 |
| Yards | 198 | 210 |
| Touchdowns | 3 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 15 | 13 |
| Lost | 11 | 8 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 61 | 84 |
| Yards | 539 | 739 |
| Yards / Game | 44.9 | 61.6 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 27:39 | 32:21 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 167 | 170 |
| Conversions | 67 | 57 |
| Conversion % | 40.1% | 33.5% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 32 |
| Conversions | 15 | 23 |
| Conversion % | 62.5% | 71.9% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 37 | 33 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 28 | 30 |
| Score % | 75.7% | 90.9% |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 20 |
| TD % | 59.5% | 60.6% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 9 | 18 |
| Made | 8 | 15 |
| Pct | 88.9% | 83.3% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 34 | 37 |
| Made | 32 | 36 |
| Pct | 94.1% | 97.3% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 1 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.