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TENN
Tennessee
VolunteersRun-HeavySoutheastern Conference5-7#96 (-3.70)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
28· DOverall
Offense
23· DRating
19· DPer play
10· FConsistency
29· DBig plays
Defense
32· DRating
34· DPer play
20· DConsistency
Situational
58· CRed-zone O
27· DRed-zone D
18· D3rd down O
68· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.008
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.019
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.095
Defensive EPA/play
+0.039
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.6%
Def Success Rate
49.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.134
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.165
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.60
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.03
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.10
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.29
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.06
own return game
Return Defense
+0.10
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#96
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#18
recruiting 78 spots higher
31 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Tennessee ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense49th
Opp-adjusted defense58th
Offensive EPA/play19th
Defensive EPA/play34th
Offensive success rate11th
Explosiveness29th
Defensive havoc31th
Points per drive15th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Pittsburgh2017OA +0.004 / -0.016similar: defensive EPA, turnover rate, TD drive rate3622Colorado2025OA -0.044 / -0.049similar: pass defense, offensive success rate, turnover rate3383Nebraska2022OA +0.012 / -0.072similar: defensive EPA, run defense, takeaway rate3284South Carolina2023OA -0.031 / +0.005similar: rushing offense, takeaway rate, havoc rate3245Georgia Tech2026OA -0.049 / -0.024similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, defensive EPA323
2018 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs West Virginia | 14-40 | L | +10.0 | L | 59.5 | U |
| 2 | vs East Tennessee State | 59-3 | W | -37.0 | W | 51.5 | O |
| 3 | vs UTEP | 24-0 | W | -33.5 | L | 51 | U |
| 4 | vs Florida | 21-47 | L | +3.5 | L | 46 | O |
| 5 | @ Georgia | 12-38 | L | +30.5 | W | 55 | U |
| 7 | @ Auburn | 30-24 | W | +14.5 | W | 46 | O |
| 8 | vs Alabama | 21-58 | L | +29.5 | L | 57.5 | O |
| 9 | @ South Carolina | 24-27 | L | +10.5 | W | 53 | U |
| 10 | vs Charlotte | 14-3 | W | -22.5 | L | 47.5 | U |
| 11 | vs Kentucky | 24-7 | W | +5.0 | W | 43 | U |
| 12 | vs Missouri | 17-50 | L | +5.5 | L | 58 | O |
| 13 | @ Vanderbilt | 13-38 | L | +3.5 | L | 51.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS2-6
Away ATS3-1
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS4-5
Last 5 ATS
WLWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.074 | 19th | +0.011 | 47th |
| Red Zone | +0.052 | 58th | +0.120 | 27th |
| Third Down | -0.101 | 18th | -0.041 | 68th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.087 | 19th | +0.024 | 37th |
| First Half | -0.125 | 14th | -0.025 | 55th |
| Second Half | -0.023 | 38th | +0.050 | 35th |
| Early Downs | -0.034 | 39th | +0.029 | 33th |
| Passing Downs | -0.052 | 29th | -0.051 | 63th |
| Standard Downs | -0.088 | 20th | +0.041 | 29th |
| Goal to Go | -0.011 | 38th | +0.059 | 55th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 41.5%Rush 58.5%
Havoc/Game
11.8
Havoc Rate
17.2%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
10.8
Yards/Game
325.5
Pts/Drive
1.60
3rd Down%
38.2%
3&Out%
25.0%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 12 games — Tennessee vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Tennessee | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 273 | 335 |
| Points / Game | 22.8 | 27.9 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 192 | 243 |
| Rushing | 75 | 103 |
| Passing | 96 | 124 |
| Penalty | 21 | 16 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 419 | 448 |
| Yards | 1,549 | 1,854 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.7 | 4.1 |
| Yards / Game | 129.1 | 154.5 |
| Touchdowns | 15 | 20 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 297 | 351 |
| Completions | 176 | 221 |
| Completion % | 59.3% | 63.0% |
| Yards | 2,357 | 2,675 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.9 | 7.6 |
| Touchdowns | 15 | 21 |
| Interceptions | 5 | 9 |
| Passer Rating | 139.22 | 141.60 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 716 | 799 |
| Yards | 3,906 | 4,529 |
| Yards / Play | 5.5 | 5.7 |
| Yards / Game | 325.5 | 377.4 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 9 |
| Yards | 192 | 18 |
| Average | 12.8 | 2.0 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 18 | 22 |
| Yards | 374 | 476 |
| Average | 20.8 | 21.6 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 66 | 60 |
| Yards | 2,707 | 2,586 |
| Average | 41.0 | 43.1 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 5 |
| Yards | 124 | 101 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 17 | 13 |
| Lost | 11 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 68 | 68 |
| Yards | 558 | 515 |
| Yards / Game | 46.5 | 42.9 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:10 | 30:49 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 157 | 154 |
| Conversions | 60 | 60 |
| Conversion % | 38.2% | 39.0% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 11 | 13 |
| Conversions | 5 | 7 |
| Conversion % | 45.5% | 53.8% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 34 | 45 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 30 | 41 |
| Score % | 88.2% | 91.1% |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 30 |
| TD % | 64.7% | 66.7% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 13 | 17 |
| Made | 10 | 13 |
| Pct | 76.9% | 76.5% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 31 | 40 |
| Made | 31 | 38 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 95.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 2 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.