Fourth Down Data
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SYR

Syracuse

OrangeRun-Heavy
Atlantic Coast Conference5-7#72 (-0.25)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

46· COverall
Offense
46· CRating
40· CPer play
31· DConsistency
25· DBig plays
Defense
47· CRating
47· CPer play
36· DConsistency
Situational
19· DRed-zone O
54· CRed-zone D
26· D3rd down O
71· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.028
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.012
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.020
Defensive EPA/play
-0.016
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.6%
Def Success Rate
46.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.004
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.218
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.01

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.56
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.09
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.10
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.60
own return game
Return Defense
+0.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#72
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#81
model 9 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
model & recruiting agree
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Syracuse ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
62th
Opp-adjusted defense
55th
Offensive EPA/play
41th
Defensive EPA/play
47th
Offensive success rate
26th
Explosiveness
25th
Defensive havoc
70th
Points per drive
41th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Pittsburgh2018OA +0.031 / +0.003similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, TD drive rate4112Ole Miss2019OA +0.008 / +0.019similar: rushing offense, pass defense, defensive success rate3333Duke2023OA +0.031 / +0.042similar: havoc rate, TD drive rate, offensive success rate3314Georgia Southern2019OA -0.051 / +0.035similar: passing offense, havoc rate, defensive EPA3285Mississippi State2023OA -0.053 / +0.047similar: passing offense, pass defense, turnover rate322

2021 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Ohio29-9W-1.5W55.75U
2vs Rutgers7-17L+1.5L51.5U
3vs Albany62-24W+7.0W54U
4vs Liberty24-21W----
5@ Florida State30-33L+4.5W51O
6vs Wake Forest37-40L+6.0W57.5O
7vs Clemson14-17L----
8@ Virginia Tech41-36W+3.0W45.5O
9vs Boston College21-6W-6.5W50U
11@ Louisville3-41L+3.0L55.5U
12@ NC State17-41L+11.5L51O
13vs Pittsburgh14-31L+13.0L58.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS2-1
Underdog ATS5-4
Last 5 ATS
WWLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off47thRush Off36thRed Zone Off19th3rd Down Off26thPass Def53thRush Def58thRed Zone Def54th3rd Down Def72th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.02338th-0.02650th
Red Zone-0.17519th-0.05754th
Third Down-0.04526th-0.04472th
No Garbage Time-0.02039th-0.01748th
First Half-0.06230th+0.00048th
Second Half+0.01957th-0.05464th
Early Downs-0.02643th+0.03130th
Passing Downs-0.01147th-0.01353th
Standard Downs-0.03036th-0.03258th
Goal to Go-0.31013th-0.07761th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 36.9%Rush 63.1%
Havoc/Game
13.5
Havoc Rate
20.0%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
13.2
Yards/Game
366.5
Pts/Drive
2.01
3rd Down%
33.1%
3&Out%
29.9%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 12 games — Syracuse vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSyracuseOpponents
Scoring
Points299316
Points / Game24.926.3
First Downs
Total234221
Rushing13398
Passing81102
Penalty2021
Rushing
Attempts491438
Yards2,5621,513
Yards / Carry5.23.5
Yards / Game213.5126.1
Touchdowns2812
Passing
Attempts287338
Completions156223
Completion %54.4%66.0%
Yards1,8362,451
Yards / Attempt6.47.3
Touchdowns1022
Interceptions64
Passer Rating115.41146.00
Total Offense
Plays778776
Yards4,3983,964
Yards / Play5.75.1
Yards / Game366.5330.3
Punt Returns
Returns2426
Yards241239
Average10.09.2
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns3632
Yards752669
Average20.920.9
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts6762
Yards2,5102,690
Average37.543.4
Interception Returns
Returns46
Yards3249
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles1316
Lost63
Penalties
Penalties8356
Yards687535
Yards / Game57.344.6
Time of Possession
Per Game29:1430:46
Third Downs
Attempts154163
Conversions5161
Conversion %33.1%37.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1719
Conversions910
Conversion %52.9%52.6%
Red Zone
Trips3446
Scores (TD + FG)2640
Score %76.5%87.0%
Touchdowns2023
TD %58.8%50.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1422
Made919
Pct64.3%86.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3834
Made3633
Pct94.7%97.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts12
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →