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PITT
Pittsburgh
PanthersRun-HeavyAtlantic Coast Conference7-7#68 (+0.64)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
49· COverall
Offense
52· CRating
49· CPer play
42· CConsistency
51· CBig plays
Defense
52· CRating
41· CPer play
40· CConsistency
Situational
45· CRed-zone O
52· CRed-zone D
39· D3rd down O
29· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.031
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.003
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.004
Defensive EPA/play
+0.017
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.0%
Def Success Rate
46.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.013
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.357
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.10
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.32
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.46
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.13
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.15
own return game
Return Defense
-0.16
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#68
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#35
recruiting 33 spots higher
9 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Pittsburgh ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense62th
Opp-adjusted defense51th
Offensive EPA/play49th
Defensive EPA/play42th
Offensive success rate36th
Explosiveness52th
Defensive havoc65th
Points per drive42th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Syracuse2021OA +0.028 / +0.012similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, TD drive rate4112Cincinnati2026OA +0.005 / +0.002similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3433Kansas State2020OA -0.003 / -0.042similar: run defense, havoc rate, defensive success rate3264Auburn2020OA -0.001 / -0.017similar: rushing offense, takeaway rate, offensive EPA3225California2021OA -0.056 / -0.013similar: pass defense, TD drive rate, defensive EPA320
2018 Schedule & Results
14 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Albany | 33-7 | W | +3.5 | W | 52.5 | U |
| 2 | vs Penn State | 6-51 | L | +7.5 | L | 51 | O |
| 3 | vs Georgia Tech | 24-19 | W | +3.0 | W | 54 | U |
| 4 | @ North Carolina | 35-38 | L | -3.0 | L | 48 | O |
| 5 | @ UCF | 14-45 | L | +13.0 | L | 65.5 | U |
| 6 | vs Syracuse | 44-37 | W | +3.5 | W | 58 | O |
| 7 | @ Notre Dame | 14-19 | L | +21.0 | W | 56 | U |
| 9 | vs Duke | 54-45 | W | +3.0 | W | 46 | O |
| 10 | @ Virginia | 23-13 | W | +7.0 | W | 45.5 | U |
| 11 | vs Virginia Tech | 52-22 | W | -4.0 | W | 52 | O |
| 12 | @ Wake Forest | 34-13 | W | -5.0 | W | 62.5 | U |
| 13 | @ Miami | 3-24 | L | +5.5 | L | 45.5 | U |
| 14 | vs Clemson | 10-42 | L | +27.0 | L | 53 | U |
| 18 | vs Stanford | 13-14 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS2-1
Underdog ATS6-4
Last 5 ATS
WWWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.014 | 42th | +0.030 | 38th |
| Red Zone | +0.000 | 45th | -0.006 | 53th |
| Third Down | +0.013 | 39th | +0.148 | 29th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.000 | 48th | +0.013 | 45th |
| First Half | +0.007 | 46th | -0.024 | 54th |
| Second Half | -0.036 | 34th | +0.086 | 23th |
| Early Downs | -0.021 | 43th | +0.030 | 31th |
| Passing Downs | -0.021 | 40th | -0.011 | 56th |
| Standard Downs | -0.010 | 45th | +0.052 | 26th |
| Goal to Go | +0.096 | 53th | +0.149 | 37th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 35.6%Rush 64.4%
Havoc/Game
14.0
Havoc Rate
20.4%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
13.4
Yards/Game
369.7
Pts/Drive
2.10
3rd Down%
36.6%
3&Out%
25.8%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 14 games — Pittsburgh vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Pittsburgh | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 359 | 389 |
| Points / Game | 25.6 | 27.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 242 | 280 |
| Rushing | 153 | 126 |
| Passing | 72 | 124 |
| Penalty | 17 | 30 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 571 | 519 |
| Yards | 3,191 | 2,496 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.6 | 4.8 |
| Yards / Game | 227.9 | 178.3 |
| Touchdowns | 30 | 24 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 316 | 410 |
| Completions | 182 | 229 |
| Completion % | 57.6% | 55.9% |
| Yards | 1,985 | 2,930 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.3 | 7.1 |
| Touchdowns | 12 | 24 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 9 |
| Passer Rating | 119.09 | 130.81 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 887 | 929 |
| Yards | 5,176 | 5,426 |
| Yards / Play | 5.8 | 5.8 |
| Yards / Game | 369.7 | 387.6 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 20 | 31 |
| Yards | 157 | 222 |
| Average | 7.8 | 7.2 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 2 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 26 | 26 |
| Yards | 634 | 532 |
| Average | 24.4 | 20.5 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 74 | 66 |
| Yards | 3,067 | 2,758 |
| Average | 41.4 | 41.8 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 6 |
| Yards | 148 | 98 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 18 | 24 |
| Lost | 10 | 9 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 101 | 70 |
| Yards | 942 | 567 |
| Yards / Game | 67.3 | 40.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 32:34 | 27:26 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 183 | 190 |
| Conversions | 67 | 76 |
| Conversion % | 36.6% | 40.0% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 19 | 25 |
| Conversions | 9 | 13 |
| Conversion % | 47.4% | 52.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 39 | 52 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 32 | 42 |
| Score % | 82.1% | 80.8% |
| Touchdowns | 25 | 31 |
| TD % | 64.1% | 59.6% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 17 |
| Made | 13 | 13 |
| Pct | 76.5% | 76.5% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 42 | 47 |
| Made | 40 | 46 |
| Pct | 95.2% | 97.9% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 3 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.