Fourth Down Data
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SYR

Syracuse

OrangeBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference4-8#57 (+3.02)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

57· COverall
Offense
60· CRating
49· CPer play
25· DConsistency
13· FBig plays
Defense
54· CRating
31· DPer play
40· CConsistency
Situational
7· FRed-zone O
32· DRed-zone D
63· C3rd down O
74· B3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.047
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.009
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.025
Defensive EPA/play
+0.050
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.1%
Def Success Rate
46.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.075
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.073
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.97

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.13
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.71
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.91
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.04
own return game
Return Defense
+0.11
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#57
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#66
model 9 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Syracuse ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
69th
Opp-adjusted defense
55th
Offensive EPA/play
50th
Defensive EPA/play
31th
Offensive success rate
25th
Explosiveness
14th
Defensive havoc
18th
Points per drive
41th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Marshall2019OA -0.070 / -0.000similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, passing offense3512Tulsa2025OA -0.071 / -0.025similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, passing offense3433San José State2025OA -0.049 / -0.102similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, passing offense3354Houston2019OA +0.003 / -0.090similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, rushing offense3245NC State2019OA -0.065 / -0.033similar: passing offense, takeaway rate, defensive EPA319

2017 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Central Connecticut State50-7W-46.0L--
2vs Middle Tennessee23-30L-7.5L72U
3vs Central Michigan41-17W-7.5W66.5U
4@ LSU26-35L+21.5W56O
5@ NC State25-33L+14.0W61.5U
6vs Pittsburgh27-24W-3.0P63U
7vs Clemson27-24W+24.0W59U
8@ Miami19-27L+17.5W60.5U
10@ Florida State24-27L+7.5W51.5U
11vs Wake Forest43-64L+2.5L64.5O
12@ Louisville10-56L+15.5L70.5U
13vs Boston College14-42L+4.5L56P

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-5-1
54.5%
O/U Record
2-8-1
20.0%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS5-3
Last 5 ATS
WWLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off45thRush Off45thRed Zone Off8th3rd Down Off64thPass Def11thRush Def58thRed Zone Def32th3rd Down Def74th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.04638th+0.02934th
Red Zone-0.2338th+0.08332th
Third Down+0.07664th-0.18674th
No Garbage Time-0.01950th+0.03935th
First Half-0.10220th-0.00141th
Second Half+0.01161th+0.06019th
Early Downs-0.12014th+0.03325th
Passing Downs-0.03845th+0.17911th
Standard Downs-0.04945th-0.05458th
Goal to Go-0.07737th-0.14871th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 53.4%Rush 46.6%
Havoc/Game
10.8
Havoc Rate
14.9%
TO Margin
-1.0
Explosive/G
16.0
Yards/Game
456.3
Pts/Drive
1.97
3rd Down%
39.7%
3&Out%
18.0%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 12 games — Syracuse vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSyracuseOpponents
Scoring
Points329386
Points / Game27.432.2
First Downs
Total293248
Rushing108109
Passing157122
Penalty2817
Rushing
Attempts479451
Yards1,9382,360
Yards / Carry4.05.2
Yards / Game161.5196.7
Touchdowns1628
Passing
Attempts548381
Completions320232
Completion %58.4%60.9%
Yards3,5382,968
Yards / Attempt6.57.8
Touchdowns2019
Interceptions164
Passer Rating118.83140.69
Total Offense
Plays1,027832
Yards5,4765,328
Yards / Play5.36.4
Yards / Game456.3444.0
Punt Returns
Returns199
Yards13724
Average7.22.7
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3832
Yards863708
Average22.722.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5872
Yards2,4993,033
Average43.142.1
Interception Returns
Returns416
Yards62172
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1319
Lost88
Penalties
Penalties7479
Yards593715
Yards / Game49.459.6
Time of Possession
Per Game30:0929:51
Third Downs
Attempts224164
Conversions8951
Conversion %39.7%31.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3820
Conversions2210
Conversion %57.9%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips4732
Scores (TD + FG)3926
Score %83.0%81.3%
Touchdowns2320
TD %48.9%62.5%
Field Goals
Attempts3017
Made2214
Pct73.3%82.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3648
Made3546
Pct97.2%95.8%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts11
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →