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SJSU
San José State
SpartansPass-HeavyMountain West Conference3-9#123 (-14.27)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
10· FOverall
Offense
26· DRating
34· DPer play
43· CConsistency
67· CBig plays
Defense
10· FRating
26· DPer play
31· DConsistency
Situational
16· DRed-zone O
29· DRed-zone D
70· B3rd down O
55· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.049
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.102
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.050
Defensive EPA/play
+0.053
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.9%
Def Success Rate
47.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.102
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.279
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.80
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.53
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.91
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.44
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.05
own return game
Return Defense
-0.13
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#123
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#109
market 14 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
recruiting 44 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where San José State ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense34th
Opp-adjusted defense13th
Offensive EPA/play35th
Defensive EPA/play26th
Offensive success rate38th
Explosiveness67th
Defensive havoc8th
Points per drive22th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Tulane2021OA +0.011 / -0.020similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, run defense3432Purdue2025OA -0.058 / -0.065similar: turnover rate, passing offense, offensive EPA3353Syracuse2017OA +0.047 / +0.009similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, passing offense3344Rice2022OA -0.041 / -0.043similar: offensive success rate, turnover rate, defensive EPA3335Boston College2026OA -0.002 / -0.005similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, passing offense318
2025 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Central Michigan | 14-16 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | @ Texas | 7-38 | L | +37.0 | W | 52.5 | U |
| 4 | vs Idaho | 31-28 | W | +1.5 | W | 40.5 | O |
| 5 | @ Stanford | 29-30 | L | -1.5 | W | 58.5 | O |
| 6 | vs New Mexico | 35-28 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 7 | @ Wyoming | 28-35 | L | +4.0 | L | 61.5 | U |
| 8 | @ Utah State | 25-30 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 10 | vs Hawai'i | 45-38 | W | -1.5 | W | 55 | O |
| 11 | vs Air Force | 16-26 | L | -6.0 | L | 67.5 | U |
| 12 | @ Nevada | 10-55 | L | +21.5 | L | 54.5 | O |
| 13 | @ San Diego State | 3-25 | L | +12.0 | L | 50.5 | U |
| 14 | vs Fresno State | 14-41 | L | +3.5 | L | 46.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS2-3
Underdog ATS3-4
Last 5 ATS
WLLLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.045 | 33th | +0.049 | 27th |
| Red Zone | -0.166 | 16th | +0.087 | 30th |
| Third Down | +0.187 | 71th | +0.033 | 56th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.050 | 35th | +0.052 | 24th |
| First Half | -0.072 | 23th | +0.020 | 37th |
| Second Half | -0.020 | 46th | +0.082 | 17th |
| Early Downs | +0.038 | 73th | +0.009 | 35th |
| Passing Downs | -0.137 | 21th | +0.028 | 35th |
| Standard Downs | +0.004 | 50th | +0.060 | 24th |
| Goal to Go | -0.128 | 30th | +0.147 | 32th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 60.7%Rush 39.3%
Havoc/Game
9.7
Havoc Rate
14.0%
TO Margin
-1.1
Explosive/G
15.1
Yards/Game
402.3
Pts/Drive
1.80
3rd Down%
42.9%
3&Out%
13.4%
Team Statistics
2025 season totals across 12 games — San José State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | San José State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 257 | 390 |
| Points / Game | 21.4 | 32.5 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 241 | 249 |
| Rushing | 78 | 105 |
| Passing | 141 | 123 |
| Penalty | 22 | 21 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 317 | 469 |
| Yards | 1,436 | 1,895 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.5 | 4.0 |
| Yards / Game | 119.7 | 157.9 |
| Touchdowns | 14 | 25 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 490 | 345 |
| Completions | 273 | 226 |
| Completion % | 55.7% | 65.5% |
| Yards | 3,391 | 2,943 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.9 | 8.5 |
| Touchdowns | 17 | 18 |
| Interceptions | 17 | 7 |
| Passer Rating | 118.36 | 150.32 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 807 | 814 |
| Yards | 4,827 | 4,838 |
| Yards / Play | 6.0 | 5.9 |
| Yards / Game | 402.3 | 403.2 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 8 | 10 |
| Yards | 57 | 103 |
| Average | 7.1 | 10.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 24 | 24 |
| Yards | 469 | 572 |
| Average | 19.5 | 23.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 39 | 49 |
| Yards | 1,777 | 2,148 |
| Average | 45.6 | 43.8 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 7 | 17 |
| Yards | 108 | 292 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 13 | 11 |
| Lost | 10 | 7 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 70 | 84 |
| Yards | 658 | 724 |
| Yards / Game | 54.8 | 60.3 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 27:45 | 32:12 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 161 | 165 |
| Conversions | 69 | 61 |
| Conversion % | 42.9% | 37.0% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 23 | 29 |
| Conversions | 6 | 23 |
| Conversion % | 26.1% | 79.3% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 40 | 53 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 31 | 46 |
| Score % | 77.5% | 86.8% |
| Touchdowns | 21 | 32 |
| TD % | 52.5% | 60.4% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 23 | 22 |
| Made | 12 | 19 |
| Pct | 52.2% | 86.4% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 30 | 43 |
| Made | 29 | 43 |
| Pct | 96.7% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 4 |
| Made | 0 | 3 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.