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STAN
Stanford
CardinalBalancedAtlantic Coast Conference3-9#118 (-6.59)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
13· FOverall
Offense
16· DRating
21· DPer play
48· CConsistency
50· CBig plays
Defense
21· DRating
6· FPer play
4· FConsistency
Situational
72· BRed-zone O
78· BRed-zone D
36· D3rd down O
51· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.135
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.059
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.112
Defensive EPA/play
+0.128
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.3%
Def Success Rate
51.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.240
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.012
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.61
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.22
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.00
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.64
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.77
own return game
Return Defense
+0.20
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#118
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#104
market 14 higher
Recruiting Rank
#20
recruiting 98 spots higher
24 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Stanford ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense9th
Opp-adjusted defense24th
Offensive EPA/play21th
Defensive EPA/play6th
Offensive success rate62th
Explosiveness50th
Defensive havoc33th
Points per drive18th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Boston College2025OA -0.019 / -0.094similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, run defense3502Akron2026OA -0.010 / -0.029similar: offensive EPA, takeaway rate, offensive success rate3423Charlotte2024OA -0.021 / -0.045similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, havoc rate3274South Florida2020OA -0.047 / -0.026similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, pass defense3145UAB2024OA -0.034 / -0.035similar: run defense, offensive EPA, turnover rate308
2022 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Colgate | 41-10 | W | -38.5 | L | 49 | O |
| 2 | vs USC | 28-41 | L | +10.5 | L | 55.5 | O |
| 4 | @ Washington | 22-40 | L | +13.5 | L | 64 | U |
| 5 | @ Oregon | 27-45 | L | +17.0 | L | 64 | O |
| 6 | vs Oregon State | 27-28 | L | +4.5 | W | 53.5 | O |
| 7 | @ Notre Dame | 16-14 | W | +17.0 | W | 53.5 | U |
| 8 | vs Arizona State | 15-14 | W | -2.5 | L | 54 | U |
| 9 | @ UCLA | 13-38 | L | +16.5 | L | 66.5 | U |
| 10 | vs Washington State | 14-52 | L | +5.0 | L | 49.5 | O |
| 11 | @ Utah | 7-42 | L | +24.0 | L | 53.5 | U |
| 12 | @ California | 20-27 | L | +5.0 | L | 46.5 | O |
| 13 | vs BYU | 26-35 | L | +6.5 | L | 57.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
2-10
16.7%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS1-5
Away ATS1-5
Favorite ATS0-2
Underdog ATS2-8
Last 5 ATS
LLLLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.039 | 42th | +0.103 | 8th |
| Red Zone | +0.097 | 73th | -0.188 | 79th |
| Third Down | +0.004 | 36th | +0.048 | 52th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.110 | 24th | +0.127 | 6th |
| First Half | -0.073 | 36th | +0.170 | 5th |
| Second Half | -0.004 | 56th | +0.024 | 30th |
| Early Downs | -0.032 | 45th | +0.110 | 5th |
| Passing Downs | -0.035 | 45th | +0.033 | 35th |
| Standard Downs | -0.041 | 39th | +0.139 | 4th |
| Goal to Go | -0.085 | 40th | +0.077 | 31th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 54.4%Rush 45.6%
Havoc/Game
11.7
Havoc Rate
16.8%
TO Margin
-1.0
Explosive/G
13.0
Yards/Game
361.6
Pts/Drive
1.61
3rd Down%
37.8%
3&Out%
21.0%
Team Statistics
2022 season totals across 12 games — Stanford vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Stanford | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 256 | 386 |
| Points / Game | 21.3 | 32.2 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 249 | 265 |
| Rushing | 78 | 135 |
| Passing | 145 | 107 |
| Penalty | 26 | 23 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 376 | 443 |
| Yards | 1,288 | 2,693 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.4 | 6.1 |
| Yards / Game | 107.3 | 224.4 |
| Touchdowns | 14 | 25 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 448 | 351 |
| Completions | 275 | 203 |
| Completion % | 61.4% | 57.8% |
| Yards | 3,051 | 2,516 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.8 | 7.2 |
| Touchdowns | 15 | 22 |
| Interceptions | 8 | 6 |
| Passer Rating | 126.07 | 135.31 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 824 | 794 |
| Yards | 4,339 | 5,209 |
| Yards / Play | 5.3 | 6.6 |
| Yards / Game | 361.6 | 434.1 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 17 | 22 |
| Yards | 71 | 154 |
| Average | 4.2 | 7.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 45 | 12 |
| Yards | 888 | 188 |
| Average | 19.7 | 15.7 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 58 | 52 |
| Yards | 2,377 | 2,188 |
| Average | 41.0 | 42.1 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 6 | 8 |
| Yards | 3 | 92 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 23 | 13 |
| Lost | 13 | 3 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 55 | 75 |
| Yards | 495 | 720 |
| Yards / Game | 41.3 | 60.0 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:54 | 30:06 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 164 | 155 |
| Conversions | 62 | 54 |
| Conversion % | 37.8% | 34.8% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 21 | 22 |
| Conversions | 11 | 17 |
| Conversion % | 52.4% | 77.3% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 31 | 45 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 27 | 35 |
| Score % | 87.1% | 77.8% |
| Touchdowns | 21 | 26 |
| TD % | 67.7% | 57.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 18 | 19 |
| Made | 18 | 13 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 68.4% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 26 | 45 |
| Made | 24 | 45 |
| Pct | 92.3% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 5 |
| Made | 2 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.