Fourth Down Data
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USF

South Florida

BullsBalanced
American Conference7-6#55 (+2.02)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

59· COverall
Offense
55· CRating
30· DPer play
15· DConsistency
54· CBig plays
Defense
53· CRating
57· CPer play
55· CConsistency
Situational
79· BRed-zone O
66· CRed-zone D
69· C3rd down O
83· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.014
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.005
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.038
Defensive EPA/play
-0.023
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.3%
Def Success Rate
45.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.015
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.019
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.21

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.38
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.80
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.50
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.07
own return game
Return Defense
+0.00
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#55
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#62
model 7 higher
Recruiting Rank
#70
model 15 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where South Florida ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
33th
Opp-adjusted defense
58th
Offensive EPA/play
31th
Defensive EPA/play
57th
Offensive success rate
12th
Explosiveness
54th
Defensive havoc
72th
Points per drive
50th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Florida International2025OA -0.074 / -0.025similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, pass defense4092Tulane2018OA -0.062 / +0.035similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, run defense3773UNLV2026OA -0.009 / +0.000similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3564Florida Atlantic2024OA -0.028 / -0.007similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, offensive EPA3345Virginia Tech2024OA +0.002 / +0.048similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, turnover rate331

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Bethune-Cookman48-3W-40.5W60.5U
2@ Alabama16-42L+31.0W63.5U
3@ Southern Miss49-24W-11.0W58.5O
4vs Miami15-50L+17.0L65P
5@ Tulane10-45L+5.0L64U
7vs Memphis3-21L+7.5L60.5U
8vs UAB35-25W-13.5L57.5O
10@ Florida Atlantic44-21W----
11vs Navy7-28L+3.0L57.5U
12@ Charlotte59-24W-3.0W52.5O
13vs Tulsa63-30W-17.0W60.5O
14@ Rice28-35L-5.0L53.5O
18@ San José State41-39W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
7-5-1
58.3%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS5-2
Favorite ATS5-2
Underdog ATS2-4
Last 5 ATS
LWWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off52thRush Off19thRed Zone Off80th3rd Down Off69thPass Def81thRush Def28thRed Zone Def66th3rd Down Def84th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.03330th-0.01357th
Red Zone+0.16180th-0.09566th
Third Down+0.18469th-0.06584th
No Garbage Time-0.03830th-0.01855th
First Half-0.06631th+0.03033th
Second Half+0.00141th-0.06077th
Early Downs-0.1397th+0.05818th
Passing Downs+0.03152th-0.11981th
Standard Downs-0.06819th+0.04628th
Goal to Go+0.29290th-0.57999th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 47.4%Rush 52.6%
Havoc/Game
16.5
Havoc Rate
21.0%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
14.3
Yards/Game
407.7
Pts/Drive
2.21
3rd Down%
39.5%
3&Out%
26.3%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — South Florida vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSouth FloridaOpponents
Scoring
Points418387
Points / Game32.229.8
First Downs
Total265295
Rushing106110
Passing130150
Penalty2935
Rushing
Attempts492510
Yards2,3432,056
Yards / Carry4.84.0
Yards / Game180.2158.2
Touchdowns3425
Passing
Attempts443471
Completions262277
Completion %59.1%58.8%
Yards2,9573,624
Yards / Attempt6.77.7
Touchdowns1623
Interceptions1012
Passer Rating122.62134.46
Total Offense
Plays935981
Yards5,3005,680
Yards / Play5.75.8
Yards / Game407.7436.9
Punt Returns
Returns2813
Yards30058
Average10.74.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2031
Yards445735
Average22.323.7
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts7067
Yards3,1782,939
Average45.443.9
Interception Returns
Returns1210
Yards132142
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1522
Lost813
Penalties
Penalties105110
Yards922951
Yards / Game70.973.2
Time of Possession
Per Game25:0834:52
Third Downs
Attempts195194
Conversions7767
Conversion %39.5%34.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2730
Conversions1515
Conversion %55.6%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips5151
Scores (TD + FG)4440
Score %86.3%78.4%
Touchdowns3432
TD %66.7%62.7%
Field Goals
Attempts2119
Made1513
Pct71.4%68.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5044
Made4944
Pct98.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts68
Made35
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →