Fourth Down Data
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SDSU

San Diego State

AztecsRun-Heavy
Pac-12 Conference4-4#30 (+4.34)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

77· BOverall
Offense
20· DRating
22· DPer play
28· DConsistency
23· DBig plays
Defense
94· ARating
94· APer play
96· AConsistency
Situational
8· FRed-zone O
73· BRed-zone D
28· D3rd down O
91· A-3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.027
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.060
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.062
Defensive EPA/play
-0.168
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.4%
Def Success Rate
41.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
19.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.105
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.146
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.78

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.76
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.40
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.80
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.89
own return game
Return Defense
-0.33
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#30
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#38
model 8 higher
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where San Diego State ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
22th
Opp-adjusted defense
97th
Offensive EPA/play
23th
Defensive EPA/play
95th
Offensive success rate
30th
Explosiveness
23th
Defensive havoc
96th
Points per drive
21th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Michigan2017OA -0.033 / +0.192similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3712Utah2023OA -0.066 / +0.115similar: passing offense, takeaway rate, offensive success rate3643Missouri2019OA -0.070 / +0.066similar: rushing offense, pass defense, defensive success rate3614Boise State2022OA -0.051 / +0.066similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, run defense3585Wyoming2020OA -0.019 / +0.052similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, TD drive rate350

2020 Schedule & Results

8 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
8vs UNLV34-6W-14.5W49U
9@ Utah State38-7W-9.5L47.5U
10vs San José State17-28L----
11vs Hawai'i34-10W-11.5W53U
12@ Nevada21-26L-1.5L46.5O
13@ Colorado10-20L+5.0L51U
14vs Colorado State29-17W-7.5W47.5U
15@ BYU14-28L+17.0W47.25U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-3
62.5%
O/U Record
2-6
25.0%
Straight Up
4-4
50.0%
Home ATS3-1
Away ATS2-2
Favorite ATS4-2
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
WLLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off25thRush Off30thRed Zone Off8th3rd Down Off28thPass Def76thRush Def97thRed Zone Def73th3rd Down Def92th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.06023th-0.13394th
Red Zone-0.2808th-0.10573th
Third Down-0.05328th-0.20592th
No Garbage Time-0.07521th-0.14193th
First Half+0.02754th-0.18795th
Second Half-0.1549th-0.06977th
Early Downs-0.07125th-0.18998th
Passing Downs-0.07325th-0.05876th
Standard Downs-0.05330th-0.18097th
Goal to Go-0.4668th+0.13138th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 36.3%Rush 63.7%
Havoc/Game
16.1
Havoc Rate
24.0%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
14.5
Yards/Game
350.8
Pts/Drive
1.78
3rd Down%
36.7%
3&Out%
27.8%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 8 games — San Diego State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSan Diego StateOpponents
Scoring
Points197142
Points / Game24.617.8
First Downs
Total152122
Rushing8351
Passing6259
Penalty712
Rushing
Attempts357258
Yards1,595786
Yards / Carry4.53.0
Yards / Game199.498.3
Touchdowns145
Passing
Attempts203262
Completions115157
Completion %56.7%59.9%
Yards1,2111,482
Yards / Attempt6.05.7
Touchdowns611
Interceptions58
Passer Rating111.59115.19
Total Offense
Plays560520
Yards2,8062,268
Yards / Play5.04.4
Yards / Game350.8283.5
Punt Returns
Returns2315
Yards245150
Average10.710.0
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns1613
Yards427338
Average26.726.0
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts4055
Yards1,8382,318
Average46.042.1
Interception Returns
Returns85
Yards17323
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles913
Lost65
Penalties
Penalties3835
Yards339265
Yards / Game42.433.1
Time of Possession
Per Game32:1527:45
Third Downs
Attempts120121
Conversions4436
Conversion %36.7%29.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1710
Conversions88
Conversion %47.1%80.0%
Red Zone
Trips2923
Scores (TD + FG)2119
Score %72.4%82.6%
Touchdowns1312
TD %44.8%52.2%
Field Goals
Attempts1414
Made1010
Pct71.4%71.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2415
Made2314
Pct95.8%93.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts01
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →