Fourth Down Data
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PITT

Pittsburgh

PanthersBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference3-9#90 (-2.95)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

34· DOverall
Offense
9· FRating
7· FPer play
5· FConsistency
5· FBig plays
Defense
67· CRating
74· BPer play
66· CConsistency
Situational
36· DRed-zone O
84· BRed-zone D
4· F3rd down O
63· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.131
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.084
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.136
Defensive EPA/play
-0.050
lower = better
Off Success Rate
40.9%
Def Success Rate
45.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
19.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.085
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.049
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.46

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.31
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.19
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.09
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.10
own return game
Return Defense
-0.11
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#90
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#80
market 10 higher
Recruiting Rank
#53
recruiting 37 spots higher
6 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Pittsburgh ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
6th
Opp-adjusted defense
87th
Offensive EPA/play
7th
Defensive EPA/play
75th
Offensive success rate
6th
Explosiveness
5th
Defensive havoc
67th
Points per drive
8th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1South Carolina2025OA -0.037 / +0.088similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, pass defense4462Michigan State2020OA -0.049 / +0.004similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, offensive success rate4093Florida State2018OA -0.108 / +0.043similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, rushing offense3904Mississippi State2020OA -0.062 / +0.041similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, offensive EPA3675Virginia2022OA -0.103 / +0.066similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, run defense357

2023 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Wofford45-7W-37.5W48.75O
2vs Cincinnati21-27L-6.5L45O
3@ West Virginia6-17L+2.5L47.5U
4vs North Carolina24-41L+7.5L50O
5@ Virginia Tech21-38L-2.5L39.5O
7vs Louisville38-21W+7.5W46O
8@ Wake Forest17-21L+2.0L47.5U
9@ Notre Dame7-58L+20.5L44.5O
10vs Florida State7-24L+21.5W51U
11@ Syracuse13-28L-3.0W46.5U
12vs Boston College24-16W----
13@ Duke19-30L+6.0L42.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
8-4
66.7%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS0-6
Favorite ATS2-3
Underdog ATS2-5
Last 5 ATS
LWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off19thRush Off9thRed Zone Off37th3rd Down Off4thPass Def53thRush Def69thRed Zone Def84th3rd Down Def64th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.1149th-0.03467th
Red Zone-0.05637th-0.16884th
Third Down-0.1194th+0.12164th
No Garbage Time-0.1365th-0.05075th
First Half-0.03433th-0.00456th
Second Half-0.2024th-0.06178th
Early Downs-0.10819th-0.05859th
Passing Downs-0.07719th+0.02553th
Standard Downs-0.1359th-0.06569th
Goal to Go+0.33394th-0.06261th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 50.3%Rush 49.7%
Havoc/Game
13.8
Havoc Rate
19.9%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
10.7
Yards/Game
317.9
Pts/Drive
1.46
3rd Down%
31.8%
3&Out%
24.3%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 12 games — Pittsburgh vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatPittsburghOpponents
Scoring
Points242328
Points / Game20.227.3
First Downs
Total195240
Rushing73101
Passing101109
Penalty2130
Rushing
Attempts356493
Yards1,2231,802
Yards / Carry3.43.7
Yards / Game101.9150.2
Touchdowns1020
Passing
Attempts360317
Completions192197
Completion %53.3%62.1%
Yards2,5922,537
Yards / Attempt7.28.0
Touchdowns1716
Interceptions1210
Passer Rating122.73139.72
Total Offense
Plays716810
Yards3,8154,339
Yards / Play5.35.4
Yards / Game317.9361.6
Punt Returns
Returns2221
Yards106244
Average4.811.6
Touchdowns02
Kickoff Returns
Returns239
Yards419158
Average18.217.6
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts6356
Yards2,6232,325
Average41.641.5
Interception Returns
Returns1012
Yards141198
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles1513
Lost96
Penalties
Penalties9468
Yards768647
Yards / Game64.053.9
Time of Possession
Per Game27:3732:22
Third Downs
Attempts148160
Conversions4759
Conversion %31.8%36.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2025
Conversions1012
Conversion %50.0%48.0%
Red Zone
Trips2543
Scores (TD + FG)2232
Score %88.0%74.4%
Touchdowns1626
TD %64.0%60.5%
Field Goals
Attempts1616
Made1114
Pct68.8%87.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2941
Made2940
Pct100.0%97.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts10
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →