Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
OSU

Ohio State

BuckeyesBalanced
Big Ten Conference11-2#4 (+13.04)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

97· A+Overall
Offense
99· A+Rating
99· A+Per play
99· A+Consistency
95· ABig plays
Defense
54· CRating
31· DPer play
19· DConsistency
Situational
58· CRed-zone O
27· DRed-zone D
99· A+3rd down O
16· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.248
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.001
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.265
Defensive EPA/play
+0.037
lower = better
Off Success Rate
56.1%
Def Success Rate
48.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
28.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.228
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.041
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.69

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+3.06
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.00
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.19
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.21
own return game
Return Defense
+2.46
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#4
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#6
model 2 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#4
model & market agree
Recruiting Rank
#3
recruiting 1 spots higher
66 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Ohio State ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
100th
Opp-adjusted defense
45th
Offensive EPA/play
100th
Defensive EPA/play
31th
Offensive success rate
100th
Explosiveness
95th
Defensive havoc
87th
Points per drive
100th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Oklahoma State2017OA +0.215 / +0.003similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3842Texas2019OA +0.093 / +0.011similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, takeaway rate3743Oklahoma2021OA +0.178 / +0.009similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, defensive EPA3724East Carolina2022OA +0.119 / -0.021similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, defensive success rate3615Vanderbilt2025OA +0.271 / -0.004similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, passing offense353

2021 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Minnesota45-31W----
2vs Oregon28-35L-13.5L62.5O
3vs Tulsa41-20W-24.5L61P
4vs Akron59-7W-48.5W66.5U
5@ Rutgers52-13W-14.5W58.5O
6vs Maryland66-17W-21.0W71.25O
8@ Indiana54-7W-21.0W60.5O
9vs Penn State33-24W-18.5L61U
10@ Nebraska26-17W-15.3L64U
11vs Purdue59-31W-20.0W61.5O
12vs Michigan State56-7W-19.0W66.75U
13@ Michigan27-42L-8.0L64.5O
18vs Utah48-45W-6.5L66O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6-1
50.0%
O/U Record
8-4-1
66.7%
Straight Up
11-2
84.6%
Home ATS4-4
Away ATS2-2
Favorite ATS6-6
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
LWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off99thRush Off99thRed Zone Off58th3rd Down Off100thPass Def55thRush Def26thRed Zone Def27th3rd Down Def17th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.231100th+0.02733th
Red Zone+0.01358th+0.07827th
Third Down+0.546100th+0.25917th
No Garbage Time+0.268100th+0.02635th
First Half+0.278100th-0.00851th
Second Half+0.18098th+0.06623th
Early Downs+0.15598th+0.00638th
Passing Downs+0.26699th-0.01555th
Standard Downs+0.21799th+0.05026th
Goal to Go-0.05448th+0.3995th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 53.9%Rush 46.1%
Havoc/Game
15.5
Havoc Rate
21.8%
TO Margin
+0.7
Explosive/G
15.2
Yards/Game
561.2
Pts/Drive
3.69
3rd Down%
52.6%
3&Out%
8.3%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 13 games — Ohio State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOhio StateOpponents
Scoring
Points594296
Points / Game45.722.8
First Downs
Total348277
Rushing11897
Passing215151
Penalty1529
Rushing
Attempts423448
Yards2,3441,648
Yards / Carry5.53.7
Yards / Game180.3126.8
Touchdowns2417
Passing
Attempts494461
Completions349284
Completion %70.6%61.6%
Yards4,9523,196
Yards / Attempt10.06.9
Touchdowns4621
Interceptions812
Passer Rating182.34129.67
Total Offense
Plays917909
Yards7,2964,844
Yards / Play8.05.3
Yards / Game561.2372.6
Punt Returns
Returns237
Yards13241
Average5.75.9
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2840
Yards686713
Average24.517.8
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts3167
Yards1,3102,918
Average42.343.6
Interception Returns
Returns128
Yards30658
Touchdowns40
Fumbles
Fumbles1117
Lost38
Penalties
Penalties8557
Yards770497
Yards / Game59.238.2
Time of Possession
Per Game29:2330:37
Third Downs
Attempts154183
Conversions8177
Conversion %52.6%42.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1921
Conversions1110
Conversion %57.9%47.6%
Red Zone
Trips5942
Scores (TD + FG)5436
Score %91.5%85.7%
Touchdowns3831
TD %64.4%73.8%
Field Goals
Attempts2113
Made208
Pct95.2%61.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts7639
Made7638
Pct100.0%97.4%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →