Fourth Down Data
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MINN

Minnesota

Golden GophersRun-Heavy
Big Ten Conference6-7#80 (-1.91)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

41· COverall
Offense
34· DRating
29· DPer play
44· CConsistency
23· DBig plays
Defense
36· DRating
37· DPer play
48· CConsistency
Situational
61· CRed-zone O
10· FRed-zone D
7· F3rd down O
54· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.016
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.030
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.043
Defensive EPA/play
+0.037
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.3%
Def Success Rate
46.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.080
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.093
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.85

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.83
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.95
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.00
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.14
own return game
Return Defense
+0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#80
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#70
market 10 higher
Recruiting Rank
#37
recruiting 43 spots higher
11 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Minnesota ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
41th
Opp-adjusted defense
37th
Offensive EPA/play
29th
Defensive EPA/play
38th
Offensive success rate
38th
Explosiveness
23th
Defensive havoc
24th
Points per drive
27th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Ball State2021OA -0.052 / -0.056similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3402Virginia Tech2021OA -0.008 / +0.025similar: pass defense, rushing offense, offensive EPA3383San Diego State2023OA -0.047 / -0.059similar: TD drive rate, run defense, havoc rate3304Coastal Carolina2025OA -0.058 / +0.011similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, defensive success rate3295UNLV2019OA -0.078 / -0.055similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, turnover rate324

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Nebraska13-10W----
2vs Eastern Michigan25-6W-20.0L48U
3@ North Carolina13-31L+7.5L51U
4@ Northwestern34-37L-11.5L39O
5vs Louisiana35-24W-11.0P48.5O
6vs Michigan10-52L+19.5L46O
8@ Iowa12-10W+3.5W32.5U
9vs Michigan State27-12W-7.0W40.25U
10vs Illinois26-27L-2.0L43O
11@ Purdue30-49L+1.0L46.5O
12@ Ohio State3-37L+27.5L49U
13vs Wisconsin14-28L+2.0L42P
18vs Bowling Green30-24W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-9-1
25.0%
O/U Record
6-6-1
50.0%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS2-4
Underdog ATS1-5
Last 5 ATS
LLLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off9thRush Off56thRed Zone Off61th3rd Down Off7thPass Def30thRush Def42thRed Zone Def10th3rd Down Def55th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.05224th+0.03935th
Red Zone+0.05961th+0.19010th
Third Down-0.0937th+0.15055th
No Garbage Time-0.04729th+0.03041th
First Half+0.01749th+0.08123th
Second Half-0.12011th-0.00350th
Early Downs-0.05241th-0.06866th
Passing Downs-0.1469th+0.11230th
Standard Downs-0.00356th+0.00342th
Goal to Go+0.02749th+0.12734th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 38.2%Rush 61.8%
Havoc/Game
10.6
Havoc Rate
16.7%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
12.8
Yards/Game
300.9
Pts/Drive
1.85
3rd Down%
35.2%
3&Out%
25.0%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — Minnesota vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMinnesotaOpponents
Scoring
Points272347
Points / Game20.926.7
First Downs
Total237240
Rushing12398
Passing90126
Penalty2416
Rushing
Attempts505414
Yards2,0481,938
Yards / Carry4.14.7
Yards / Game157.5149.1
Touchdowns1319
Passing
Attempts312391
Completions164244
Completion %52.6%62.4%
Yards1,8642,851
Yards / Attempt6.07.3
Touchdowns1623
Interceptions1112
Passer Rating112.62136.93
Total Offense
Plays817805
Yards3,9124,789
Yards / Play4.85.9
Yards / Game300.9368.4
Punt Returns
Returns811
Yards9455
Average11.85.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns258
Yards362180
Average14.522.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6559
Yards2,7622,427
Average42.541.1
Interception Returns
Returns1211
Yards114136
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles913
Lost67
Penalties
Penalties3970
Yards352643
Yards / Game27.149.5
Time of Possession
Per Game31:5228:08
Third Downs
Attempts176174
Conversions6280
Conversion %35.2%46.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1710
Conversions148
Conversion %82.4%80.0%
Red Zone
Trips4043
Scores (TD + FG)3841
Score %95.0%95.3%
Touchdowns2330
TD %57.5%69.8%
Field Goals
Attempts2716
Made2314
Pct85.2%87.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2741
Made2741
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts22
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →