Fourth Down Data
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MIA

Miami

HurricanesBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference10-3#31 (+10.11)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

77· BOverall
Offense
54· CRating
42· CPer play
26· DConsistency
30· DBig plays
Defense
88· BRating
77· BPer play
74· BConsistency
Situational
41· CRed-zone O
70· BRed-zone D
1· F3rd down O
33· D3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.047
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.116
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.036
Defensive EPA/play
-0.130
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.8%
Def Success Rate
43.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.094
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.260
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.15

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.77
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.18
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.62
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.07
own return game
Return Defense
+0.10
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#31
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#13
AP 18 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#20
recruiting 11 spots higher
30 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Miami ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
29th
Opp-adjusted defense
86th
Offensive EPA/play
42th
Defensive EPA/play
78th
Offensive success rate
23th
Explosiveness
30th
Defensive havoc
90th
Points per drive
53th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Virginia Tech2024OA +0.002 / +0.048similar: defensive EPA, takeaway rate, offensive success rate3882Pittsburgh2022OA -0.021 / +0.091similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, TD drive rate3803Baylor2019OA +0.062 / +0.147similar: run defense, turnover rate, defensive success rate3604Miami (OH)2025OA -0.103 / +0.022similar: pass defense, offensive success rate, turnover rate3495Florida2024OA -0.011 / +0.014similar: rushing offense, passing offense, takeaway rate346

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Bethune-Cookman41-13W+6.5L46O
4vs Toledo52-30W-13.5W60.5O
5@ Duke31-6W-5.5W55U
6@ Florida State24-20W-2.5W45.5U
7vs Georgia Tech25-24W-6.5L50.5U
8vs Syracuse27-19W-17.5L60.5U
9@ North Carolina24-19W-21.0L55.5U
10vs Virginia Tech28-10W-2.0W50U
11vs Notre Dame41-8W+3.5W59.5U
12vs Virginia44-28W-20.0L49.5O
13@ Pittsburgh14-24L-12.0L54U
14@ Clemson3-38L+12.5L48U
18vs Wisconsin24-34L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
3-9
25.0%
Straight Up
9-3
75.0%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS4-5
Underdog ATS1-2
Last 5 ATS
WWLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off41thRush Off47thRed Zone Off41th3rd Down Off1thPass Def41thRush Def94thRed Zone Def71th3rd Down Def34th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.04737th-0.11476th
Red Zone-0.03341th-0.11171th
Third Down-0.4381th+0.06134th
No Garbage Time-0.02945th-0.11677th
First Half-0.07928th-0.07061th
Second Half-0.02050th-0.16287th
Early Downs+0.04174th-0.19995th
Passing Downs-0.04741th+0.00441th
Standard Downs-0.04747th-0.18494th
Goal to Go-0.23420th-0.20077th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 50.7%Rush 49.3%
Havoc/Game
18.5
Havoc Rate
23.6%
TO Margin
+1.0
Explosive/G
13.0
Yards/Game
403.3
Pts/Drive
2.15
3rd Down%
28.8%
3&Out%
21.1%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — Miami vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMiamiOpponents
Scoring
Points378273
Points / Game29.121.0
First Downs
Total251270
Rushing106120
Passing128129
Penalty1721
Rushing
Attempts414541
Yards2,0901,895
Yards / Carry5.03.5
Yards / Game160.8145.8
Touchdowns1910
Passing
Attempts426448
Completions227256
Completion %53.3%57.1%
Yards3,1532,822
Yards / Attempt7.46.3
Touchdowns2619
Interceptions1417
Passer Rating129.03116.46
Total Offense
Plays840989
Yards5,2434,717
Yards / Play6.24.8
Yards / Game403.3362.8
Punt Returns
Returns1412
Yards22069
Average15.75.8
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3541
Yards753962
Average21.523.5
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts7674
Yards2,9072,916
Average38.339.4
Interception Returns
Returns1714
Yards228135
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles1022
Lost414
Penalties
Penalties6974
Yards656660
Yards / Game50.550.8
Time of Possession
Per Game26:3133:29
Third Downs
Attempts163220
Conversions4787
Conversion %28.8%39.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts922
Conversions69
Conversion %66.7%40.9%
Red Zone
Trips4342
Scores (TD + FG)3937
Score %90.7%88.1%
Touchdowns2523
TD %58.1%54.8%
Field Goals
Attempts2321
Made1721
Pct73.9%100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4626
Made4526
Pct97.8%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts14
Made02
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →