Fourth Down Data
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M-OH

Miami (OH)

RedHawksRun-Heavy
Mid-American Conference8-6#74 (-2.73)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

45· COverall
Offense
21· DRating
13· FPer play
18· DConsistency
14· FBig plays
Defense
58· CRating
58· CPer play
42· CConsistency
Situational
13· FRed-zone O
54· CRed-zone D
7· F3rd down O
75· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.132
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.025
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.131
Defensive EPA/play
-0.020
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.8%
Def Success Rate
46.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.111
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.028
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.86

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.14
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.34
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.82
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.12
own return game
Return Defense
-0.14
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#74
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 1 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Miami (OH) ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
9th
Opp-adjusted defense
60th
Offensive EPA/play
13th
Defensive EPA/play
59th
Offensive success rate
12th
Explosiveness
14th
Defensive havoc
75th
Points per drive
28th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1South Florida2026OA -0.058 / +0.068similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, rushing offense3732Illinois2021OA -0.054 / +0.040similar: offensive success rate, run defense, passing offense3723Colorado State2024OA -0.029 / +0.001similar: defensive success rate, offensive success rate, defensive EPA3704Bowling Green2021OA -0.136 / +0.005similar: takeaway rate, offensive EPA, offensive success rate3535Western Kentucky2018OA -0.103 / +0.001similar: takeaway rate, defensive success rate, run defense351

2019 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Iowa14-38L+15.5W55.5U
2vs Tennessee Tech48-17W-37.5L60O
3@ Cincinnati13-35L+17.0L49.5U
4@ Ohio State5-76L+38.5L56.5O
5vs Buffalo34-20W+2.5W47.5O
7@ Western Michigan16-38L+12.0L57.5U
8vs Northern Illinois27-24W+1.5W48O
9@ Kent State23-16W+2.5W54.5U
11@ Ohio24-21W+7.5W57.5U
12vs Bowling Green44-3W-17.0W48U
13vs Akron20-17W-29.0L45.5U
14@ Ball State27-41L+3.0L55.5O
15@ Central Michigan26-21W+6.5W57U
19vs Louisiana17-27L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS3-4
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS6-4
Last 5 ATS
WWLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off12thRush Off13thRed Zone Off13th3rd Down Off7thPass Def84thRush Def29thRed Zone Def55th3rd Down Def75th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.14010th-0.01054th
Red Zone-0.24213th-0.02055th
Third Down-0.2427th-0.09375th
No Garbage Time-0.13313th-0.01758th
First Half-0.14511th-0.08575th
Second Half-0.13414th+0.06722th
Early Downs-0.10614th+0.03335th
Passing Downs-0.17012th-0.11684th
Standard Downs-0.12213th+0.04729th
Goal to Go-0.20826th-0.23574th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 38.7%Rush 61.3%
Havoc/Game
15.3
Havoc Rate
20.5%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
11.9
Yards/Game
309.1
Pts/Drive
1.86
3rd Down%
33.3%
3&Out%
22.6%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 14 games — Miami (OH) vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMiami (OH)Opponents
Scoring
Points338394
Points / Game24.128.1
First Downs
Total216301
Rushing96142
Passing100132
Penalty2027
Rushing
Attempts533578
Yards1,8332,418
Yards / Carry3.44.2
Yards / Game130.9172.7
Touchdowns2224
Passing
Attempts337436
Completions183259
Completion %54.3%59.4%
Yards2,4952,929
Yards / Attempt7.46.7
Touchdowns1126
Interceptions1011
Passer Rating121.33130.47
Total Offense
Plays8701,014
Yards4,3285,347
Yards / Play5.05.3
Yards / Game309.1381.9
Punt Returns
Returns2326
Yards313303
Average13.611.7
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns4116
Yards881379
Average21.523.7
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts7767
Yards3,2912,629
Average42.739.2
Interception Returns
Returns1110
Yards219182
Touchdowns32
Fumbles
Fumbles1214
Lost89
Penalties
Penalties80100
Yards683810
Yards / Game48.857.9
Time of Possession
Per Game28:0431:45
Third Downs
Attempts201203
Conversions6782
Conversion %33.3%40.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1729
Conversions615
Conversion %35.3%51.7%
Red Zone
Trips4651
Scores (TD + FG)4042
Score %87.0%82.4%
Touchdowns2432
TD %52.2%62.7%
Field Goals
Attempts3016
Made2611
Pct86.7%68.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3752
Made3649
Pct97.3%94.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →