Fourth Down Data
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LOU

Louisville

CardinalsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference2-10#129 (-11.75)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

3· FOverall
Offense
12· FRating
6· FPer play
25· DConsistency
40· CBig plays
Defense
4· FRating
8· FPer play
5· FConsistency
Situational
44· CRed-zone O
14· FRed-zone D
74· B3rd down O
16· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.146
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.121
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.176
Defensive EPA/play
+0.142
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.9%
Def Success Rate
52.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.318
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.063
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.40

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.28
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.31
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.24
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.26
own return game
Return Defense
+0.00
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#129
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#34
recruiting 95 spots higher
10 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Louisville ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
7th
Opp-adjusted defense
9th
Offensive EPA/play
6th
Defensive EPA/play
8th
Offensive success rate
28th
Explosiveness
41th
Defensive havoc
0th
Points per drive
8th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Colorado2022OA -0.222 / -0.093similar: havoc rate, run defense, offensive EPA3982Syracuse2025OA -0.108 / -0.012similar: TD drive rate, turnover rate, rushing offense3873Rutgers2019OA -0.170 / -0.065similar: defensive EPA, takeaway rate, offensive EPA3874UConn2019OA -0.151 / -0.176similar: turnover rate, defensive success rate, offensive success rate3855Florida International2021OA -0.073 / -0.185similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, havoc rate355

2018 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Alabama14-51L+23.5L60.5O
2vs Indiana State31-7W----
3vs Western Kentucky20-17W-24.5L53U
4@ Virginia3-27L+4.5L51.5U
5vs Florida State24-28L+4.5W47.5O
6vs Georgia Tech31-66L+5.5L56O
7@ Boston College20-38L+11.0L56.5O
9vs Wake Forest35-56L-3.0L68O
10@ Clemson16-77L+38.0L61O
11@ Syracuse23-54L+20.0L68.5O
12vs NC State10-52L+16.0L65U
13vs Kentucky10-56L+17.0L53O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-10
9.1%
O/U Record
8-3
72.7%
Straight Up
2-10
16.7%
Home ATS1-5
Away ATS0-5
Favorite ATS0-2
Underdog ATS1-8
Last 5 ATS
LLLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off41thRush Off4thRed Zone Off45th3rd Down Off75thPass Def45thRush Def2thRed Zone Def14th3rd Down Def16th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.12212th+0.1535th
Red Zone-0.00145th+0.20214th
Third Down+0.17075th+0.24616th
No Garbage Time-0.1944th+0.13610th
First Half-0.2155th+0.16310th
Second Half-0.01942th+0.1427th
Early Downs-0.1498th+0.1345th
Passing Downs-0.01841th+0.03745th
Standard Downs-0.1874th+0.1992th
Goal to Go+0.01442th+0.24424th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 49.4%Rush 50.6%
Havoc/Game
7.4
Havoc Rate
10.0%
TO Margin
-1.0
Explosive/G
11.5
Yards/Game
352.6
Pts/Drive
1.40
3rd Down%
35.5%
3&Out%
27.2%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 12 games — Louisville vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatLouisvilleOpponents
Scoring
Points237529
Points / Game19.844.1
First Downs
Total225280
Rushing95152
Passing114109
Penalty1619
Rushing
Attempts403553
Yards1,6983,327
Yards / Carry4.26.0
Yards / Game141.5277.3
Touchdowns1840
Passing
Attempts394290
Completions210187
Completion %53.3%64.5%
Yards2,5332,475
Yards / Attempt6.48.5
Touchdowns1025
Interceptions156
Passer Rating108.06160.48
Total Offense
Plays797843
Yards4,2315,802
Yards / Play5.36.9
Yards / Game352.6483.5
Punt Returns
Returns1326
Yards197259
Average15.210.0
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns4433
Yards997685
Average22.720.8
Touchdowns11
Punting
Punts7041
Yards2,7981,639
Average40.040.0
Interception Returns
Returns615
Yards81319
Touchdowns03
Fumbles
Fumbles2312
Lost107
Penalties
Penalties10166
Yards861622
Yards / Game71.851.8
Time of Possession
Per Game29:3830:15
Third Downs
Attempts166162
Conversions5984
Conversion %35.5%51.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2215
Conversions810
Conversion %36.4%66.7%
Red Zone
Trips3659
Scores (TD + FG)2952
Score %80.6%88.1%
Touchdowns2244
TD %61.1%74.6%
Field Goals
Attempts1215
Made1011
Pct83.3%73.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3071
Made2770
Pct90.0%98.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →