Fourth Down Data
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KENT

Kent State

Golden FlashesBalanced
Mid-American Conference5-7#121 (-14.15)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

11· FOverall
Offense
30· DRating
20· DPer play
5· FConsistency
18· DBig plays
Defense
7· FRating
29· DPer play
32· DConsistency
Situational
61· CRed-zone O
36· DRed-zone D
14· F3rd down O
51· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.088
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.129
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.091
Defensive EPA/play
+0.036
lower = better
Off Success Rate
38.8%
Def Success Rate
47.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.126
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.122
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.78

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.39
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.19
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.62
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.17
own return game
Return Defense
+0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#121
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#132
model 11 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
recruiting 42 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Kent State ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
16th
Opp-adjusted defense
8th
Offensive EPA/play
20th
Defensive EPA/play
29th
Offensive success rate
1th
Explosiveness
18th
Defensive havoc
17th
Points per drive
20th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Akron2024OA -0.044 / -0.031similar: havoc rate, defensive success rate, defensive EPA3602Ball State2025OA -0.172 / -0.060similar: run defense, offensive success rate, rushing offense3533Indiana2023OA -0.009 / -0.034similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, defensive EPA3414Rice2019OA -0.096 / -0.061similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, rushing offense3345Tennessee2020OA -0.035 / -0.016similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, pass defense310

2025 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Merrimack21-17W-6.5L50.5U
2@ Texas Tech14-62L+48.5W59.5O
3vs Buffalo28-31L+23.5W48.5O
4@ Florida State10-66L+45.0L69.5O
6@ Oklahoma0-44L+43.5L47.5U
7vs Massachusetts42-6W-35.5W50.5U
8@ Toledo10-45L+25.5L50.5O
9vs Bowling Green24-21W+7.5W48U
11@ Ball State13-17L+6.5W49O
12@ Akron42-35W+7.5L50.5U
13vs Central Michigan16-28L+5.5W45.5O
14@ Northern Illinois35-31W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS3-2
Away ATS3-4
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS5-5
Last 5 ATS
WLWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off13thRush Off33thRed Zone Off61th3rd Down Off14thPass Def28thRush Def41thRed Zone Def36th3rd Down Def51th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.10115th+0.03133th
Red Zone+0.04861th+0.05936th
Third Down-0.16114th+0.07251th
No Garbage Time-0.10615th+0.03827th
First Half-0.1788th+0.07221th
Second Half-0.01947th-0.00947th
Early Downs-0.02443th+0.01432th
Passing Downs-0.20113th+0.05528th
Standard Downs-0.03533th+0.01941th
Goal to Go+0.733100th-0.08159th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.3%Rush 57.7%
Havoc/Game
11.6
Havoc Rate
15.3%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
10.0
Yards/Game
294.3
Pts/Drive
1.78
3rd Down%
27.6%
3&Out%
25.4%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 12 games — Kent State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatKent StateOpponents
Scoring
Points255403
Points / Game21.333.6
First Downs
Total172283
Rushing67130
Passing88129
Penalty1724
Rushing
Attempts399494
Yards1,1672,297
Yards / Carry2.94.6
Yards / Game97.3191.4
Touchdowns1022
Passing
Attempts293389
Completions163232
Completion %55.6%59.6%
Yards2,3652,832
Yards / Attempt8.17.3
Touchdowns2025
Interceptions66
Passer Rating141.86138.92
Total Offense
Plays692883
Yards3,5325,129
Yards / Play5.15.8
Yards / Game294.3427.4
Punt Returns
Returns1622
Yards211200
Average13.29.1
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns3117
Yards622325
Average20.119.1
Touchdowns20
Punting
Punts6449
Yards2,4502,054
Average38.341.9
Interception Returns
Returns66
Yards10956
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1712
Lost74
Penalties
Penalties7368
Yards585643
Yards / Game48.853.6
Time of Possession
Per Game27:4532:16
Third Downs
Attempts156174
Conversions4377
Conversion %27.6%44.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2922
Conversions1410
Conversion %48.3%45.5%
Red Zone
Trips2250
Scores (TD + FG)1744
Score %77.3%88.0%
Touchdowns1131
TD %50.0%62.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1122
Made817
Pct72.7%77.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3148
Made3148
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts22
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →