Fourth Down Data
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KSU

Kansas State

WildcatsRun-Heavy
Big 12 Conference5-7#70 (+0.54)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

47· COverall
Offense
33· DRating
43· CPer play
53· CConsistency
66· CBig plays
Defense
53· CRating
53· CPer play
14· FConsistency
Situational
11· FRed-zone O
62· CRed-zone D
47· C3rd down O
57· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.042
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.007
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.012
Defensive EPA/play
-0.010
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.5%
Def Success Rate
50.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.002
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.007
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.98

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.32
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.47
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.78
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.00
own return game
Return Defense
+0.06
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#70
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
model 7 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Kansas State ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
67th
Opp-adjusted defense
55th
Offensive EPA/play
43th
Defensive EPA/play
54th
Offensive success rate
50th
Explosiveness
67th
Defensive havoc
14th
Points per drive
34th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Auburn2020OA -0.001 / -0.017similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, run defense3512Virginia Tech2021OA -0.008 / +0.025similar: pass defense, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3453UCLA2018OA +0.036 / -0.086similar: passing offense, defensive success rate, havoc rate3364Jacksonville State2025OA -0.063 / -0.020similar: turnover rate, passing offense, run defense3345Kentucky2020OA -0.028 / +0.030similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, havoc rate334

2018 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs South Dakota27-24W-24.0L63U
2vs Mississippi State10-31L+6.5L51.5U
3vs UTSA41-17W-20.5W46.5O
4@ West Virginia6-35L+15.5L60.5U
5vs Texas14-19L+8.5W48.5U
6@ Baylor34-37L+3.5W54O
7vs Oklahoma State31-12W+8.0W62U
9@ Oklahoma14-51L+23.5L63.5O
10@ TCU13-14L+10.0W44.5U
11vs Kansas21-17W-9.0L45.5U
12vs Texas Tech21-6W+6.5W55U
13@ Iowa State38-42L+10.0W41O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
4-8
33.3%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS6-3
Last 5 ATS
LWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off80thRush Off14thRed Zone Off11th3rd Down Off48thPass Def70thRush Def38thRed Zone Def62th3rd Down Def58th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.02435th-0.01856th
Red Zone-0.21911th-0.06362th
Third Down+0.04148th+0.00358th
No Garbage Time-0.01838th-0.01052th
First Half-0.12316th+0.00443th
Second Half+0.07373th-0.04368th
Early Downs-0.07519th+0.01438th
Passing Downs+0.13580th-0.09170th
Standard Downs-0.10714th+0.01638th
Goal to Go-0.11523th-0.04970th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 36.4%Rush 63.6%
Havoc/Game
10.7
Havoc Rate
15.1%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
14.8
Yards/Game
344.7
Pts/Drive
1.98
3rd Down%
38.5%
3&Out%
18.7%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 12 games — Kansas State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatKansas StateOpponents
Scoring
Points270305
Points / Game22.525.4
First Downs
Total225254
Rushing11699
Passing87139
Penalty2216
Rushing
Attempts507390
Yards2,1911,892
Yards / Carry4.34.9
Yards / Game182.6157.7
Touchdowns2014
Passing
Attempts290424
Completions166255
Completion %57.2%60.1%
Yards1,9452,949
Yards / Attempt6.77.0
Touchdowns1120
Interceptions711
Passer Rating121.27128.94
Total Offense
Plays797814
Yards4,1364,841
Yards / Play5.25.9
Yards / Game344.7403.4
Punt Returns
Returns1714
Yards210162
Average12.411.6
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns4043
Yards694807
Average17.418.8
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5543
Yards2,3451,629
Average42.637.9
Interception Returns
Returns117
Yards6326
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1819
Lost108
Penalties
Penalties5969
Yards538609
Yards / Game44.850.8
Time of Possession
Per Game31:5028:10
Third Downs
Attempts169165
Conversions6574
Conversion %38.5%44.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2016
Conversions96
Conversion %45.0%37.5%
Red Zone
Trips4041
Scores (TD + FG)3136
Score %77.5%87.8%
Touchdowns1923
TD %47.5%56.1%
Field Goals
Attempts2025
Made1515
Pct75.0%60.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3135
Made2934
Pct93.5%97.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts12
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →