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IOWA
Iowa
HawkeyesRun-HeavyBig Ten Conference10-4#42 (+3.59)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
69· COverall
Offense
1· FRating
0· FPer play
1· FConsistency
0· FBig plays
Defense
99· A+Rating
97· A+Per play
95· AConsistency
Situational
13· FRed-zone O
92· A-Red-zone D
1· F3rd down O
85· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.201
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.172
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.255
Defensive EPA/play
-0.183
lower = better
Off Success Rate
37.1%
Def Success Rate
39.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
15.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
16.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.072
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.196
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.10
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+2.44
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.62
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.64
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.12
own return game
Return Defense
+0.06
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#42
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#24
AP 18 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#59
model 17 higher
Recruiting Rank
#37
recruiting 5 spots higher
11 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Iowa ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense1th
Opp-adjusted defense96th
Offensive EPA/play0th
Defensive EPA/play98th
Offensive success rate1th
Explosiveness0th
Defensive havoc47th
Points per drive1th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Florida Atlantic2020OA -0.038 / +0.056similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, run defense3992Utah2024OA -0.058 / +0.063similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, defensive EPA3913New Mexico2021OA -0.227 / +0.012similar: passing offense, rushing offense, offensive EPA3634Nebraska2023OA -0.116 / +0.124similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, takeaway rate3535New Mexico2022OA -0.235 / +0.019similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, TD drive rate348
2023 Schedule & Results
14 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Utah State | 24-14 | W | -23.5 | L | 43.5 | U |
| 2 | @ Iowa State | 20-13 | W | -3.0 | W | 40.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Western Michigan | 41-10 | W | -28.5 | W | 42.5 | O |
| 4 | @ Penn State | 0-31 | L | +14.5 | L | 40 | U |
| 5 | vs Michigan State | 26-16 | W | -12.3 | L | 36.5 | O |
| 6 | vs Purdue | 20-14 | W | -2.5 | W | 38.5 | U |
| 7 | @ Wisconsin | 15-6 | W | +10.0 | W | 36.5 | U |
| 8 | vs Minnesota | 10-12 | L | -3.5 | L | 32.5 | U |
| 10 | @ Northwestern | 10-7 | W | -5.0 | L | 31 | U |
| 11 | vs Rutgers | 22-0 | W | -1.0 | W | 28.75 | U |
| 12 | vs Illinois | 15-13 | W | -3.5 | L | 30.5 | U |
| 13 | @ Nebraska | 13-10 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 14 | vs Michigan | 0-26 | L | +21.5 | L | 35 | U |
| 18 | @ Tennessee | 0-35 | L | +5.5 | L | 35.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-8
42.9%
O/U Record
2-12
14.3%
Straight Up
10-4
71.4%
Home ATS3-5
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS4-5
Underdog ATS2-3
Last 5 ATS
WWLLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.245 | 0th | -0.175 | 98th |
| Red Zone | -0.195 | 13th | -0.218 | 93th |
| Third Down | -0.186 | 1th | +0.006 | 86th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.247 | 0th | -0.181 | 98th |
| First Half | -0.195 | 1th | -0.165 | 96th |
| Second Half | -0.304 | 1th | -0.185 | 96th |
| Early Downs | -0.230 | 3th | -0.198 | 94th |
| Passing Downs | -0.309 | 1th | -0.200 | 98th |
| Standard Downs | -0.208 | 2th | -0.159 | 94th |
| Goal to Go | -0.229 | 11th | +0.122 | 36th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 41.7%Rush 58.3%
Havoc/Game
12.9
Havoc Rate
18.1%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
8.6
Yards/Game
234.6
Pts/Drive
1.10
3rd Down%
29.4%
3&Out%
36.0%
Team Statistics
2023 season totals across 14 games — Iowa vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Iowa | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 216 | 207 |
| Points / Game | 15.4 | 14.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 181 | 230 |
| Rushing | 83 | 97 |
| Passing | 75 | 117 |
| Penalty | 23 | 16 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 486 | 498 |
| Yards | 1,623 | 1,565 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.3 | 3.1 |
| Yards / Game | 115.9 | 111.8 |
| Touchdowns | 11 | 7 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 348 | 472 |
| Completions | 170 | 265 |
| Completion % | 48.9% | 56.1% |
| Yards | 1,661 | 2,390 |
| Yards / Attempt | 4.8 | 5.1 |
| Touchdowns | 9 | 11 |
| Interceptions | 11 | 10 |
| Passer Rating | 91.16 | 102.13 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 834 | 970 |
| Yards | 3,284 | 3,955 |
| Yards / Play | 3.9 | 4.1 |
| Yards / Game | 234.6 | 282.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 30 | 29 |
| Yards | 304 | 224 |
| Average | 10.1 | 7.7 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 19 | 7 |
| Yards | 444 | 109 |
| Average | 23.4 | 15.6 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 94 | 94 |
| Yards | 4,516 | 3,899 |
| Average | 48.0 | 41.5 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 11 |
| Yards | 132 | 87 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 23 | 18 |
| Lost | 11 | 5 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 51 | 85 |
| Yards | 433 | 728 |
| Yards / Game | 30.9 | 52.0 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:33 | 31:27 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 204 | 227 |
| Conversions | 60 | 71 |
| Conversion % | 29.4% | 31.3% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 14 | 24 |
| Conversions | 7 | 14 |
| Conversion % | 50.0% | 58.3% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 35 | 33 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 28 | 25 |
| Score % | 80.0% | 75.8% |
| Touchdowns | 14 | 15 |
| TD % | 40.0% | 45.5% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 27 | 29 |
| Made | 19 | 22 |
| Pct | 70.4% | 75.9% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 20 | 19 |
| Made | 19 | 19 |
| Pct | 95.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 1 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.