Fourth Down Data
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ILL

Illinois

Fighting IlliniRun-Heavy
Big Ten Conference4-8#112 (-7.00)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

16· DOverall
Offense
37· DRating
52· CPer play
69· CConsistency
37· DBig plays
Defense
8· FRating
9· FPer play
10· FConsistency
Situational
71· BRed-zone O
12· FRed-zone D
9· F3rd down O
10· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.057
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.155
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.013
Defensive EPA/play
+0.136
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.8%
Def Success Rate
50.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.123
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.008
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.01

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.11
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.09
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.46
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.20
own return game
Return Defense
-0.27
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#112
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#47
recruiting 65 spots higher
4 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Illinois ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
73th
Opp-adjusted defense
4th
Offensive EPA/play
53th
Defensive EPA/play
9th
Offensive success rate
67th
Explosiveness
37th
Defensive havoc
30th
Points per drive
36th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Ball State2018OA -0.048 / -0.110similar: defensive success rate, turnover rate, takeaway rate3262Georgia Tech2023OA +0.059 / -0.073similar: run defense, defensive EPA, rushing offense3153Ohio2021OA -0.040 / -0.129similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3144Florida State2020OA -0.023 / -0.044similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, offensive success rate3135Arkansas2019OA -0.077 / -0.071similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, turnover rate310

2018 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Kent State31-24W-18.0L57.5U
2vs Western Illinois34-14W----
3vs South Florida19-25L+14.0W59U
4vs Penn State24-63L+26.5L61O
6@ Rutgers38-17W-4.5W50O
7vs Purdue7-46L+10.5L62U
8@ Wisconsin20-49L+24.0L53.5O
9@ Maryland33-63L+16.5L56O
10vs Minnesota55-31W+8.5W61.5O
11@ Nebraska35-54L+17.0L71O
12vs Iowa0-63L+15.5L60O
13@ Northwestern16-24L+14.5W56U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-7
36.4%
O/U Record
7-4
63.6%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS3-6
Last 5 ATS
LWLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off16thRush Off82thRed Zone Off72th3rd Down Off9thPass Def10thRush Def8thRed Zone Def12th3rd Down Def11th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.01454th+0.1487th
Red Zone+0.09872th+0.22512th
Third Down-0.1709th+0.29211th
No Garbage Time+0.01955th+0.1378th
First Half-0.01741th+0.1648th
Second Half+0.05068th+0.13011th
Early Downs+0.07382th+0.09811th
Passing Downs-0.12416th+0.18110th
Standard Downs+0.08282th+0.1318th
Goal to Go+0.13964th+0.19732th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 40.0%Rush 60.0%
Havoc/Game
12.7
Havoc Rate
17.0%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
12.8
Yards/Game
408.7
Pts/Drive
2.01
3rd Down%
34.5%
3&Out%
19.5%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 12 games — Illinois vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatIllinoisOpponents
Scoring
Points312473
Points / Game26.039.4
First Downs
Total233301
Rushing125147
Passing91131
Penalty1723
Rushing
Attempts493494
Yards2,9162,943
Yards / Carry5.96.0
Yards / Game243.0245.3
Touchdowns2531
Passing
Attempts329372
Completions177236
Completion %53.8%63.4%
Yards1,9883,157
Yards / Attempt6.08.5
Touchdowns1030
Interceptions1415
Passer Rating106.08153.28
Total Offense
Plays822866
Yards4,9046,100
Yards / Play6.07.0
Yards / Game408.7508.3
Punt Returns
Returns1831
Yards60331
Average3.310.7
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns4121
Yards689470
Average16.822.4
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts6550
Yards2,7331,984
Average42.039.7
Interception Returns
Returns1514
Yards162138
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles2314
Lost105
Penalties
Penalties7771
Yards773692
Yards / Game64.457.7
Time of Possession
Per Game28:3431:26
Third Downs
Attempts168157
Conversions5870
Conversion %34.5%44.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1417
Conversions810
Conversion %57.1%58.8%
Red Zone
Trips3650
Scores (TD + FG)3143
Score %86.1%86.0%
Touchdowns2135
TD %58.3%70.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2513
Made208
Pct80.0%61.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3662
Made3661
Pct100.0%98.4%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts02
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →