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HAW
Hawai'i
Rainbow WarriorsPass-HeavyMountain West Conference5-7#103 (-4.88)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
24· DOverall
Offense
14· FRating
35· DPer play
43· CConsistency
27· DBig plays
Defense
33· DRating
36· DPer play
41· CConsistency
Situational
24· DRed-zone O
42· CRed-zone D
16· D3rd down O
34· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.018
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.015
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.019
Defensive EPA/play
+0.022
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.0%
Def Success Rate
46.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.041
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.014
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.95
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.78
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.05
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.85
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.00
own return game
Return Defense
+0.12
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#103
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#102
market 1 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
recruiting 23 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Hawai'i ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense29th
Opp-adjusted defense31th
Offensive EPA/play35th
Defensive EPA/play37th
Offensive success rate49th
Explosiveness28th
Defensive havoc43th
Points per drive28th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Arkansas State2025OA -0.117 / -0.043similar: rushing offense, pass defense, offensive EPA3842Colorado State2023OA -0.066 / -0.063similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, pass defense3813Ole Miss2026OA +0.002 / -0.042similar: offensive success rate, turnover rate, passing offense3784Texas State2021OA -0.092 / -0.137similar: TD drive rate, takeaway rate, rushing offense3685Colorado State2018OA -0.056 / -0.133similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, offensive success rate363
2024 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | vs Delaware State | 35-14 | W | -39.5 | L | 52.5 | U |
| 1 | vs UCLA | 13-16 | L | +14.0 | W | 54.5 | U |
| 3 | @ Sam Houston | 13-31 | L | +4.5 | L | 50 | U |
| 4 | vs Northern Iowa | 36-7 | W | -9.0 | W | 47.5 | U |
| 6 | @ San Diego State | 24-27 | L | +2.5 | L | 48.5 | O |
| 7 | vs Boise State | 7-28 | L | +20.5 | L | 60.5 | U |
| 8 | @ Washington State | 10-42 | L | +18.5 | L | 55.5 | U |
| 9 | vs Nevada | 34-13 | W | +2.5 | W | 46.5 | O |
| 10 | @ Fresno State | 21-20 | W | +13.5 | W | 48.5 | U |
| 11 | vs UNLV | 27-29 | L | +13.5 | W | 49.5 | O |
| 12 | @ Utah State | 10-55 | L | -2.5 | L | 60 | O |
| 14 | vs New Mexico | 38-30 | W | +2.5 | W | 61.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS5-4
Last 5 ATS
WWWLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.015 | 37th | +0.037 | 31th |
| Red Zone | -0.125 | 25th | +0.036 | 43th |
| Third Down | -0.045 | 16th | +0.158 | 34th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.015 | 40th | +0.027 | 34th |
| First Half | -0.093 | 22th | -0.054 | 61th |
| Second Half | +0.056 | 64th | +0.148 | 6th |
| Early Downs | +0.028 | 67th | -0.010 | 41th |
| Passing Downs | -0.045 | 28th | +0.017 | 49th |
| Standard Downs | +0.000 | 49th | +0.047 | 26th |
| Goal to Go | -0.181 | 22th | +0.146 | 21th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 58.5%Rush 41.5%
Havoc/Game
12.2
Havoc Rate
17.5%
TO Margin
-0.7
Explosive/G
14.5
Yards/Game
365.8
Pts/Drive
1.95
3rd Down%
37.3%
3&Out%
21.4%
Team Statistics
2024 season totals across 12 games — Hawai'i vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Hawai'i | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 268 | 312 |
| Points / Game | 22.3 | 26.0 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 249 | 244 |
| Rushing | 71 | 102 |
| Passing | 150 | 111 |
| Penalty | 28 | 31 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 340 | 426 |
| Yards | 1,172 | 1,988 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.4 | 4.7 |
| Yards / Game | 97.7 | 165.7 |
| Touchdowns | 7 | 20 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 480 | 366 |
| Completions | 286 | 239 |
| Completion % | 59.6% | 65.3% |
| Yards | 3,218 | 2,535 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.7 | 6.9 |
| Touchdowns | 25 | 18 |
| Interceptions | 15 | 6 |
| Passer Rating | 126.84 | 136.43 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 820 | 792 |
| Yards | 4,390 | 4,523 |
| Yards / Play | 5.4 | 5.7 |
| Yards / Game | 365.8 | 376.9 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 21 |
| Yards | 159 | 195 |
| Average | 14.5 | 9.3 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 20 | 31 |
| Yards | 298 | 452 |
| Average | 14.9 | 14.6 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 49 | 55 |
| Yards | 2,184 | 2,374 |
| Average | 44.6 | 43.2 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 6 | 15 |
| Yards | 29 | 209 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 10 | 9 |
| Lost | 4 | 5 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 96 | 83 |
| Yards | 844 | 820 |
| Yards / Game | 70.3 | 68.3 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:21 | 29:41 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 161 | 166 |
| Conversions | 60 | 67 |
| Conversion % | 37.3% | 40.4% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 18 |
| Conversions | 12 | 14 |
| Conversion % | 54.5% | 77.8% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 42 | 44 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 35 | 38 |
| Score % | 83.3% | 86.4% |
| Touchdowns | 24 | 25 |
| TD % | 57.1% | 56.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 16 | 18 |
| Made | 12 | 13 |
| Pct | 75.0% | 72.2% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 32 | 36 |
| Made | 32 | 35 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 97.2% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 3 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.