Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
HAW

Hawai'i

Rainbow WarriorsPass-Heavy
Mountain West Conference5-8#134 (-10.22)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

1· FOverall
Offense
16· DRating
32· DPer play
31· DConsistency
77· BBig plays
Defense
5· FRating
24· DPer play
5· FConsistency
Situational
7· FRed-zone O
77· BRed-zone D
32· D3rd down O
15· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.067
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.075
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.035
Defensive EPA/play
+0.061
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.3%
Def Success Rate
50.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.096
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.102
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.91

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.73
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.66
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.88
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.11
own return game
Return Defense
-0.09
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#134
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#121
market 13 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
recruiting 58 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Hawai'i ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
22th
Opp-adjusted defense
14th
Offensive EPA/play
32th
Defensive EPA/play
24th
Offensive success rate
37th
Explosiveness
78th
Defensive havoc
40th
Points per drive
34th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Stanford2019OA +0.023 / -0.058similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, havoc rate3952Boston College2025OA -0.019 / -0.094similar: pass defense, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3933Colorado State2018OA -0.056 / -0.133similar: offensive success rate, defensive success rate, rushing offense3634Old Dominion2018OA -0.024 / -0.145similar: passing offense, pass defense, turnover rate3605Middle Tennessee2025OA -0.065 / -0.153similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, offensive EPA348

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0@ Vanderbilt28-35L+17.5W55.5O
1vs Stanford24-37L----
2vs Albany31-20W-9.8W53.5U
3@ Oregon10-55L+38.0L68.5U
4vs New Mexico State20-17W-3.0P57.5U
5@ UNLV20-44L+11.0L59.5O
7vs San Diego State34-41L+6.0L53.5O
8@ New Mexico21-42L-1.0L60O
9vs San José State0-35L+10.0L60.5U
10@ Nevada27-14W+3.5W50.5U
11vs Air Force27-13W+19.0W47.5U
12@ Wyoming9-42L+13.5L46O
13vs Colorado State27-24W+5.5W54.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7-1
41.7%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
5-8
38.5%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS4-6
Last 5 ATS
LWWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off47thRush Off33thRed Zone Off7th3rd Down Off33thPass Def18thRush Def45thRed Zone Def78th3rd Down Def16th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.01639th+0.04634th
Red Zone-0.2387th-0.13678th
Third Down+0.10333th+0.35916th
No Garbage Time-0.04730th+0.05328th
First Half-0.05825th+0.11914th
Second Half+0.02358th-0.03360th
Early Downs-0.02949th-0.02945th
Passing Downs+0.04847th+0.15418th
Standard Downs-0.05033th-0.01045th
Goal to Go-0.10028th-0.29185th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 62.3%Rush 37.7%
Havoc/Game
11.5
Havoc Rate
17.5%
TO Margin
-0.8
Explosive/G
14.0
Yards/Game
352.5
Pts/Drive
1.91
3rd Down%
37.2%
3&Out%
24.8%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — Hawai'i vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatHawai'iOpponents
Scoring
Points278419
Points / Game21.432.2
First Downs
Total251261
Rushing70118
Passing154115
Penalty2728
Rushing
Attempts325481
Yards9892,222
Yards / Carry3.04.6
Yards / Game76.1170.9
Touchdowns626
Passing
Attempts537331
Completions337204
Completion %62.8%61.6%
Yards3,5932,787
Yards / Attempt6.78.4
Touchdowns2724
Interceptions157
Passer Rating129.96152.06
Total Offense
Plays862812
Yards4,5825,009
Yards / Play5.36.2
Yards / Game352.5385.3
Punt Returns
Returns1517
Yards101156
Average6.79.2
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2112
Yards410275
Average19.522.9
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts6143
Yards2,3692,067
Average38.848.1
Interception Returns
Returns715
Yards63203
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles1411
Lost86
Penalties
Penalties8072
Yards733693
Yards / Game56.453.3
Time of Possession
Per Game29:3830:22
Third Downs
Attempts183168
Conversions6876
Conversion %37.2%45.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3220
Conversions169
Conversion %50.0%45.0%
Red Zone
Trips4547
Scores (TD + FG)3438
Score %75.6%80.9%
Touchdowns2527
TD %55.6%57.4%
Field Goals
Attempts1822
Made1416
Pct77.8%72.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3149
Made3049
Pct96.8%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts34
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →