Fourth Down Data
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HAW

Hawai'i

Rainbow WarriorsBalanced
Mountain West Conference3-10#133 (-11.08)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

2· FOverall
Offense
13· FRating
19· DPer play
23· DConsistency
38· DBig plays
Defense
5· FRating
18· DPer play
25· DConsistency
Situational
23· DRed-zone O
54· CRed-zone D
34· D3rd down O
62· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.087
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.155
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.123
Defensive EPA/play
+0.075
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.7%
Def Success Rate
49.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.199
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.013
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.61

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-2.01
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.52
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.24
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-1.11
own return game
Return Defense
-0.14
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#133
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#128
market 5 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 58 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Hawai'i ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
24th
Opp-adjusted defense
4th
Offensive EPA/play
19th
Defensive EPA/play
18th
Offensive success rate
21th
Explosiveness
39th
Defensive havoc
6th
Points per drive
19th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1South Florida2021OA -0.052 / -0.142similar: rushing offense, run defense, havoc rate3882Texas State2021OA -0.092 / -0.137similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, turnover rate3863New Mexico State2019OA -0.052 / -0.096similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, run defense3714Florida International2022OA -0.160 / -0.147similar: defensive EPA, takeaway rate, passing offense3665Wisconsin2026OA -0.037 / -0.038similar: run defense, passing offense, TD drive rate355

2022 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0vs Vanderbilt10-63L+9.5L54.5O
1vs Western Kentucky17-49L+16.0L67.5U
2@ Michigan10-56L+52.0W67U
3vs Duquesne24-14W----
4@ New Mexico State26-45L+5.0L53O
6@ San Diego State14-16L+23.5W48.5U
7vs Nevada31-16W+6.5W49.5U
8@ Colorado State13-17L+5.0W46.5U
9vs Wyoming20-27L+10.5W51U
10@ Fresno State13-55L+24.5L62O
11vs Utah State34-41L+11.5W54O
12vs UNLV31-25W+11.0W55.5O
13@ San José State14-27L+15.0W57.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-4
66.7%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
3-10
23.1%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS8-4
Last 5 ATS
WLWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off11thRush Off42thRed Zone Off23th3rd Down Off34thPass Def12thRush Def19thRed Zone Def55th3rd Down Def62th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.08426th+0.07815th
Red Zone-0.14323th-0.05255th
Third Down-0.00734th+0.00462th
No Garbage Time-0.13617th+0.06720th
First Half-0.15614th+0.12011th
Second Half-0.01252th+0.03127th
Early Downs-0.01850th+0.06516th
Passing Downs-0.17711th+0.15312th
Standard Downs-0.03442th+0.04119th
Goal to Go-0.25918th+0.00545th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 54.7%Rush 45.3%
Havoc/Game
9.2
Havoc Rate
13.6%
TO Margin
-0.6
Explosive/G
12.5
Yards/Game
342.8
Pts/Drive
1.61
3rd Down%
34.5%
3&Out%
23.0%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 13 games — Hawai'i vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatHawai'iOpponents
Scoring
Points257451
Points / Game19.834.7
First Downs
Total244281
Rushing105132
Passing120128
Penalty1921
Rushing
Attempts406495
Yards1,7842,773
Yards / Carry4.45.6
Yards / Game137.2213.3
Touchdowns1628
Passing
Attempts490368
Completions261235
Completion %53.3%63.9%
Yards2,6722,923
Yards / Attempt5.57.9
Touchdowns1321
Interceptions1210
Passer Rating102.93143.98
Total Offense
Plays896863
Yards4,4565,696
Yards / Play5.06.6
Yards / Game342.8438.2
Punt Returns
Returns1315
Yards49132
Average3.88.8
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns439
Yards651165
Average15.118.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6341
Yards2,5671,602
Average40.739.1
Interception Returns
Returns1012
Yards124169
Touchdowns13
Fumbles
Fumbles196
Lost82
Penalties
Penalties7367
Yards653632
Yards / Game50.248.6
Time of Possession
Per Game28:1731:40
Third Downs
Attempts194157
Conversions6761
Conversion %34.5%38.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3424
Conversions1813
Conversion %52.9%54.2%
Red Zone
Trips3960
Scores (TD + FG)3253
Score %82.1%88.3%
Touchdowns1836
TD %46.2%60.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2028
Made1622
Pct80.0%78.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2853
Made2753
Pct96.4%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts22
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →