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HAW
Hawai'i
Rainbow WarriorsBalancedMountain West Conference6-7#106 (-5.38)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
21· DOverall
Offense
29· DRating
34· DPer play
29· DConsistency
31· DBig plays
Defense
33· DRating
45· CPer play
44· CConsistency
Situational
29· DRed-zone O
64· CRed-zone D
8· F3rd down O
13· F3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.081
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.044
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.045
Defensive EPA/play
-0.015
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.9%
Def Success Rate
46.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.030
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.040
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.01
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.39
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.21
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.21
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.85
own return game
Return Defense
-0.55
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#106
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#95
market 11 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
recruiting 34 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Hawai'i ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense20th
Opp-adjusted defense27th
Offensive EPA/play35th
Defensive EPA/play46th
Offensive success rate29th
Explosiveness32th
Defensive havoc44th
Points per drive39th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1East Carolina2020OA -0.035 / +0.005similar: takeaway rate, turnover rate, offensive success rate4052Rice2022OA -0.041 / -0.043similar: passing offense, rushing offense, offensive success rate4003Louisiana Tech2021OA -0.043 / -0.064similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, takeaway rate3774Florida International2025OA -0.074 / -0.025similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, defensive success rate3585Utah State2019OA -0.012 / +0.047similar: pass defense, takeaway rate, passing offense349
2021 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | @ UCLA | 10-44 | L | +17.5 | L | 67 | U |
| 1 | vs Portland State | 49-35 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | @ Oregon State | 27-45 | L | +11.5 | L | 61.5 | O |
| 3 | vs San José State | 13-17 | L | +8.0 | W | 63 | U |
| 4 | @ New Mexico State | 41-21 | W | -17.0 | W | 62.5 | U |
| 5 | vs Fresno State | 27-24 | W | +10.5 | W | 64 | U |
| 7 | @ Nevada | 17-34 | L | +14.0 | L | 60.5 | U |
| 8 | vs New Mexico State | 48-34 | W | -18.0 | L | 59.5 | O |
| 9 | @ Utah State | 31-51 | L | +5.5 | L | 65 | O |
| 10 | vs San Diego State | 10-17 | L | +7.0 | P | 46 | U |
| 11 | @ UNLV | 13-27 | L | -3.0 | L | 57 | U |
| 12 | vs Colorado State | 50-45 | W | +2.5 | W | 54 | O |
| 13 | @ Wyoming | 38-14 | W | +10.0 | W | 47.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-6-1
45.5%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS3-1
Away ATS2-5
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS4-4
Last 5 ATS
LPLWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.043 | 34th | -0.006 | 47th |
| Red Zone | -0.123 | 30th | -0.105 | 65th |
| Third Down | -0.210 | 8th | +0.283 | 13th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.046 | 34th | -0.015 | 47th |
| First Half | -0.028 | 38th | -0.036 | 61th |
| Second Half | -0.058 | 29th | +0.024 | 36th |
| Early Downs | -0.008 | 50th | -0.107 | 85th |
| Passing Downs | -0.012 | 46th | +0.105 | 20th |
| Standard Downs | -0.061 | 24th | -0.067 | 71th |
| Goal to Go | -0.322 | 12th | -0.306 | 82th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 51.7%Rush 48.3%
Havoc/Game
14.5
Havoc Rate
18.1%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
14.9
Yards/Game
405.0
Pts/Drive
2.01
3rd Down%
35.8%
3&Out%
20.2%
Team Statistics
2021 season totals across 13 games — Hawai'i vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Hawai'i | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 374 | 408 |
| Points / Game | 28.8 | 31.4 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 263 | 303 |
| Rushing | 96 | 111 |
| Passing | 144 | 168 |
| Penalty | 23 | 24 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 431 | 502 |
| Yards | 1,857 | 2,032 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.3 | 4.0 |
| Yards / Game | 142.8 | 156.3 |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 24 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 462 | 506 |
| Completions | 260 | 289 |
| Completion % | 56.3% | 57.1% |
| Yards | 3,408 | 3,766 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.4 | 7.4 |
| Touchdowns | 19 | 24 |
| Interceptions | 16 | 14 |
| Passer Rating | 124.89 | 129.75 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 893 | 1,008 |
| Yards | 5,265 | 5,798 |
| Yards / Play | 5.9 | 5.8 |
| Yards / Game | 405.0 | 446.0 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 11 |
| Yards | 69 | 111 |
| Average | 6.3 | 10.1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 30 | 27 |
| Yards | 565 | 630 |
| Average | 18.8 | 23.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 60 | 59 |
| Yards | 2,372 | 2,533 |
| Average | 39.5 | 42.9 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 16 |
| Yards | 297 | 75 |
| Touchdowns | 3 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 24 | 19 |
| Lost | 13 | 13 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 68 | 81 |
| Yards | 586 | 797 |
| Yards / Game | 45.1 | 61.3 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 27:31 | 32:29 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 176 | 208 |
| Conversions | 63 | 96 |
| Conversion % | 35.8% | 46.2% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 20 | 20 |
| Conversions | 5 | 8 |
| Conversion % | 25.0% | 40.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 45 | 48 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 38 | 39 |
| Score % | 84.4% | 81.3% |
| Touchdowns | 25 | 26 |
| TD % | 55.6% | 54.2% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 21 | 24 |
| Made | 18 | 17 |
| Pct | 85.7% | 70.8% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 42 | 50 |
| Made | 42 | 49 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 98.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 1 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.