Fourth Down Data
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HAW

Hawai'i

Rainbow WarriorsBalanced
Mountain West Conference5-4#76 (-1.31)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

41· COverall
Offense
32· DRating
51· CPer play
39· DConsistency
29· DBig plays
Defense
50· CRating
38· DPer play
48· CConsistency
Situational
80· BRed-zone O
19· DRed-zone D
60· C3rd down O
36· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.004
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.014
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.008
Defensive EPA/play
+0.055
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.1%
Def Success Rate
47.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.047
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.046
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.02

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.09
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.30
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.07
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.47
own return game
Return Defense
-0.15
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#76
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#70
market 6 higher
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Hawai'i ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
48th
Opp-adjusted defense
34th
Offensive EPA/play
52th
Defensive EPA/play
38th
Offensive success rate
43th
Explosiveness
29th
Defensive havoc
48th
Points per drive
38th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Florida Atlantic2022OA -0.010 / +0.001similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, defensive EPA4122Florida International2025OA -0.074 / -0.025similar: takeaway rate, TD drive rate, rushing offense3673Fresno State2019OA -0.044 / -0.036similar: defensive EPA, takeaway rate, rushing offense3514California2021OA -0.056 / -0.013similar: takeaway rate, defensive success rate, TD drive rate3505Massachusetts2017OA -0.010 / -0.085similar: offensive EPA, turnover rate, pass defense344

2020 Schedule & Results

9 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
8@ Fresno State34-19W+1.0L60U
9@ Wyoming7-31L----
10vs New Mexico39-33W-15.5L62.5O
11@ San Diego State10-34L+11.5L53U
12vs Boise State32-40L+14.0W55.5O
13vs Nevada24-21W+7.0W60.5U
14vs San José State24-35L+2.0L59.5U
15vs UNLV38-21W-19.0L58.5O
17@ Houston28-14W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-5
44.4%
O/U Record
3-6
33.3%
Straight Up
5-4
55.6%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS2-2
Favorite ATS0-2
Underdog ATS4-3
Last 5 ATS
WWLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off52thRush Off52thRed Zone Off80th3rd Down Off60thPass Def45thRush Def45thRed Zone Def19th3rd Down Def37th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.02555th+0.04345th
Red Zone+0.15380th+0.14019th
Third Down+0.13360th+0.12037th
No Garbage Time+0.00650th+0.05535th
First Half-0.09023th-0.05375th
Second Half+0.13388th+0.14216th
Early Downs-0.03836th+0.00453th
Passing Downs+0.04852th+0.07245th
Standard Downs+0.01052th+0.02745th
Goal to Go+0.18872th-0.03963th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 49.4%Rush 50.6%
Havoc/Game
13.9
Havoc Rate
18.6%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
14.9
Yards/Game
383.9
Pts/Drive
2.02
3rd Down%
39.1%
3&Out%
28.8%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 9 games — Hawai'i vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatHawai'iOpponents
Scoring
Points236248
Points / Game26.227.6
First Downs
Total183196
Rushing74104
Passing9281
Penalty1711
Rushing
Attempts324381
Yards1,3721,905
Yards / Carry4.25.0
Yards / Game152.4211.7
Touchdowns1517
Passing
Attempts316264
Completions195145
Completion %61.7%54.9%
Yards2,0831,774
Yards / Attempt6.66.7
Touchdowns1412
Interceptions612
Passer Rating127.90117.28
Total Offense
Plays640645
Yards3,4553,679
Yards / Play5.45.7
Yards / Game383.9408.8
Punt Returns
Returns1220
Yards64246
Average5.312.3
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2516
Yards583373
Average23.323.3
Touchdowns11
Punting
Punts4840
Yards2,0551,672
Average42.841.8
Interception Returns
Returns126
Yards16146
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles149
Lost65
Penalties
Penalties4856
Yards386521
Yards / Game42.957.9
Time of Possession
Per Game28:4431:16
Third Downs
Attempts138127
Conversions5453
Conversion %39.1%41.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1313
Conversions108
Conversion %76.9%61.5%
Red Zone
Trips3031
Scores (TD + FG)2627
Score %86.7%87.1%
Touchdowns2019
TD %66.7%61.3%
Field Goals
Attempts1413
Made811
Pct57.1%84.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2631
Made2629
Pct100.0%93.5%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts40
Made30
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →