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HAW
Hawai'i
Rainbow WarriorsPass-HeavyMountain West Conference10-5#111 (-10.79)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
18· DOverall
Offense
41· CRating
77· BPer play
93· AConsistency
80· BBig plays
Defense
12· FRating
11· FPer play
10· FConsistency
Situational
75· BRed-zone O
53· CRed-zone D
96· A3rd down O
41· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.004
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.105
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.091
Defensive EPA/play
+0.113
lower = better
Off Success Rate
52.8%
Def Success Rate
49.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.022
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.025
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.58
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.45
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.37
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.04
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.04
own return game
Return Defense
-0.00
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#111
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 36 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Hawai'i ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense54th
Opp-adjusted defense11th
Offensive EPA/play78th
Defensive EPA/play11th
Offensive success rate94th
Explosiveness81th
Defensive havoc12th
Points per drive76th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Oregon2020OA +0.022 / -0.013similar: TD drive rate, defensive success rate, offensive EPA3632Georgia Southern2022OA +0.096 / -0.166similar: passing offense, defensive success rate, defensive EPA3613Arizona State2022OA +0.027 / -0.075similar: havoc rate, passing offense, defensive EPA3484UAB2023OA +0.012 / -0.113similar: rushing offense, turnover rate, run defense3435North Texas2023OA +0.070 / -0.236similar: run defense, TD drive rate, rushing offense343
2019 Schedule & Results
15 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | vs Arizona | 45-38 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | vs Oregon State | 31-28 | W | -6.5 | L | 77 | U |
| 3 | @ Washington | 20-52 | L | +21.5 | L | 60 | O |
| 4 | vs Central Arkansas | 35-16 | W | -16.5 | W | 66.5 | U |
| 5 | @ Nevada | 54-3 | W | +2.0 | W | 64 | U |
| 7 | @ Boise State | 37-59 | L | +11.5 | L | 60.5 | O |
| 8 | vs Air Force | 26-56 | L | +4.5 | L | 66.5 | O |
| 9 | @ New Mexico | 45-31 | W | -10.0 | W | 70.5 | O |
| 10 | vs Fresno State | 38-41 | L | -3.0 | L | 67 | O |
| 11 | vs San José State | 42-40 | W | -7.5 | L | 79 | O |
| 12 | @ UNLV | 21-7 | W | -6.5 | W | 72 | U |
| 13 | vs San Diego State | 14-11 | W | -1.0 | W | 46.5 | U |
| 14 | vs Army | 52-31 | W | -2.0 | W | 55 | O |
| 15 | @ Boise State | 10-31 | L | +14.5 | L | 65.5 | U |
| 18 | vs BYU | 38-34 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-7
50.0%
O/U Record
8-6
57.1%
Straight Up
9-5
64.3%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS5-3
Underdog ATS2-4
Last 5 ATS
LWWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.102 | 86th | +0.102 | 11th |
| Red Zone | +0.123 | 76th | -0.017 | 53th |
| Third Down | +0.443 | 97th | +0.066 | 41th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.105 | 85th | +0.111 | 10th |
| First Half | +0.165 | 92th | +0.134 | 10th |
| Second Half | +0.040 | 63th | +0.070 | 20th |
| Early Downs | -0.013 | 41th | +0.066 | 16th |
| Passing Downs | +0.222 | 91th | +0.117 | 23th |
| Standard Downs | +0.048 | 71th | +0.094 | 8th |
| Goal to Go | -0.273 | 20th | -0.003 | 47th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 60.1%Rush 39.9%
Havoc/Game
10.5
Havoc Rate
14.9%
TO Margin
-0.7
Explosive/G
15.4
Yards/Game
471.0
Pts/Drive
2.58
3rd Down%
47.3%
3&Out%
13.0%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 15 games — Hawai'i vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Hawai'i | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 508 | 478 |
| Points / Game | 33.9 | 31.9 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 367 | 341 |
| Rushing | 125 | 156 |
| Passing | 223 | 157 |
| Penalty | 19 | 28 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 421 | 545 |
| Yards | 2,009 | 3,042 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.8 | 5.6 |
| Yards / Game | 133.9 | 202.8 |
| Touchdowns | 21 | 37 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 635 | 484 |
| Completions | 396 | 286 |
| Completion % | 62.4% | 59.1% |
| Yards | 5,056 | 3,428 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.0 | 7.1 |
| Touchdowns | 42 | 23 |
| Interceptions | 17 | 14 |
| Passer Rating | 145.72 | 128.48 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 1,056 | 1,029 |
| Yards | 7,065 | 6,470 |
| Yards / Play | 6.7 | 6.3 |
| Yards / Game | 471.0 | 431.3 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 21 | 12 |
| Yards | 102 | 165 |
| Average | 4.9 | 13.8 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 49 | 30 |
| Yards | 1,092 | 654 |
| Average | 22.3 | 21.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 42 | 55 |
| Yards | 1,743 | 2,259 |
| Average | 41.5 | 41.1 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 17 |
| Yards | 323 | 220 |
| Touchdowns | 4 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 18 | 11 |
| Lost | 13 | 5 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 103 | 88 |
| Yards | 918 | 767 |
| Yards / Game | 61.2 | 51.1 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 31:22 | 28:38 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 186 | 194 |
| Conversions | 88 | 80 |
| Conversion % | 47.3% | 41.2% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 33 | 26 |
| Conversions | 20 | 12 |
| Conversion % | 60.6% | 46.2% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 59 | 54 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 49 | 46 |
| Score % | 83.1% | 85.2% |
| Touchdowns | 43 | 32 |
| TD % | 72.9% | 59.3% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 25 |
| Made | 10 | 17 |
| Pct | 58.8% | 68.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 64 | 60 |
| Made | 64 | 59 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 98.3% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 1 |
| Made | 2 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.