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HAW
Hawai'i
Rainbow WarriorsBalancedMountain West Conference8-6#99 (-5.01)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
26· DOverall
Offense
65· CRating
62· CPer play
74· BConsistency
70· BBig plays
Defense
7· FRating
20· DPer play
34· DConsistency
Situational
81· BRed-zone O
19· DRed-zone D
34· D3rd down O
22· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.084
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.131
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.033
Defensive EPA/play
+0.084
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.6%
Def Success Rate
47.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.051
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.163
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.37
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.14
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.53
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.64
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.04
own return game
Return Defense
+0.07
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#99
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
recruiting 22 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Hawai'i ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense81th
Opp-adjusted defense8th
Offensive EPA/play63th
Defensive EPA/play20th
Offensive success rate78th
Explosiveness71th
Defensive havoc17th
Points per drive67th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Florida2023OA +0.082 / -0.049similar: passing offense, takeaway rate, pass defense3512Tulsa2022OA +0.049 / -0.044similar: havoc rate, passing offense, defensive EPA3493Troy2019OA +0.097 / -0.123similar: passing offense, pass defense, defensive EPA3424Coastal Carolina2017OA +0.006 / -0.136similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, pass defense3425Louisiana Tech2023OA -0.009 / -0.137similar: havoc rate, takeaway rate, turnover rate340
2018 Schedule & Results
14 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | @ Colorado State | 43-34 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 1 | vs Navy | 59-41 | W | +2.0 | L | 60.5 | U |
| 2 | vs Rice | 43-29 | W | -17.0 | L | 70 | O |
| 3 | @ Army | 21-28 | L | +7.0 | P | 62.5 | U |
| 4 | vs Duquesne | 42-21 | W | -39.0 | L | 73 | U |
| 5 | @ San José State | 44-41 | W | -9.0 | L | 63.5 | O |
| 6 | vs Wyoming | 17-13 | W | -1.0 | W | 55 | U |
| 7 | @ BYU | 23-49 | L | +10.5 | L | 58 | O |
| 8 | vs Nevada | 22-40 | L | -3.0 | L | 67 | U |
| 9 | @ Fresno State | 20-50 | L | +24.5 | L | 59.5 | O |
| 10 | vs Utah State | 17-56 | L | +19.0 | L | 71 | O |
| 12 | vs UNLV | 35-28 | W | -6.0 | W | 71 | U |
| 13 | @ San Diego State | 31-30 | W | +18.0 | W | 54 | O |
| 17 | vs Louisiana Tech | 14-31 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
3-8-1
27.3%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS2-4
Underdog ATS1-4
Last 5 ATS
LLLWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.057 | 73th | +0.085 | 17th |
| Red Zone | +0.141 | 82th | +0.167 | 19th |
| Third Down | -0.007 | 35th | +0.182 | 23th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.044 | 70th | +0.083 | 19th |
| First Half | +0.032 | 61th | +0.093 | 19th |
| Second Half | +0.085 | 78th | +0.077 | 24th |
| Early Downs | +0.103 | 92th | +0.097 | 11th |
| Passing Downs | -0.039 | 34th | +0.037 | 45th |
| Standard Downs | +0.106 | 91th | +0.108 | 11th |
| Goal to Go | +0.174 | 73th | +0.328 | 14th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 56.6%Rush 43.4%
Havoc/Game
11.5
Havoc Rate
15.7%
TO Margin
-0.6
Explosive/G
14.9
Yards/Game
419.9
Pts/Drive
2.37
3rd Down%
33.1%
3&Out%
16.9%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 14 games — Hawai'i vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Hawai'i | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 431 | 491 |
| Points / Game | 30.8 | 35.1 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 302 | 297 |
| Rushing | 94 | 138 |
| Passing | 182 | 142 |
| Penalty | 26 | 17 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 418 | 582 |
| Yards | 1,534 | 2,865 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.7 | 4.9 |
| Yards / Game | 109.6 | 204.6 |
| Touchdowns | 11 | 35 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 545 | 395 |
| Completions | 320 | 242 |
| Completion % | 58.7% | 61.3% |
| Yards | 4,344 | 3,291 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.0 | 8.3 |
| Touchdowns | 43 | 28 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 5 |
| Passer Rating | 147.30 | 152.11 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 963 | 977 |
| Yards | 5,878 | 6,156 |
| Yards / Play | 6.1 | 6.3 |
| Yards / Game | 419.9 | 439.7 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 20 | 23 |
| Yards | 173 | 104 |
| Average | 8.7 | 4.5 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 40 | 46 |
| Yards | 866 | 1,083 |
| Average | 21.6 | 23.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 59 | 58 |
| Yards | 2,363 | 2,301 |
| Average | 40.1 | 39.7 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 5 | 12 |
| Yards | 17 | 250 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 20 | 21 |
| Lost | 9 | 7 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 83 | 101 |
| Yards | 737 | 983 |
| Yards / Game | 52.6 | 70.2 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:18 | 30:42 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 178 | 203 |
| Conversions | 59 | 86 |
| Conversion % | 33.1% | 42.4% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 38 | 28 |
| Conversions | 22 | 18 |
| Conversion % | 57.9% | 64.3% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 57 | 62 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 48 | 53 |
| Score % | 84.2% | 85.5% |
| Touchdowns | 36 | 42 |
| TD % | 63.2% | 67.7% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 18 | 24 |
| Made | 15 | 13 |
| Pct | 83.3% | 54.2% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 47 | 61 |
| Made | 46 | 60 |
| Pct | 97.9% | 98.4% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 8 | 4 |
| Made | 5 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.